Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Horizon 2020: a call to forge biodiversity links

For the upcoming calls for Horizon 2020 research funding, the European Commission has said that it would prefer bids from open, collaborative consortia rather than the competitive bids seen in previous funding programmes. To this end, the organizers of 18 European biodiversity informatics projects agreed at a meeting in Rome…

A decadal view of biodiversity informatics: challenges and priorities

Biodiversity informatics plays a central enabling role in the research community's efforts to address scientific conservation and sustainability issues. Great strides have been made in the past decade establishing a framework for sharing data, where taxonomy and systematics has been perceived as the most prominent discipline involved. To some extent this is inevitable, given the use of species names as the pivot around which information is organised. To address the urgent questions around conservation, land-use, environmental change, sustainability, food security and ecosystem services that are facing Governments worldwide, we need to understand how the ecosystem works. So, we need a systems approach to understanding biodiversity that moves significantly beyond taxonomy and species observations. Such an approach needs to look at the whole system to address species interactions, both with their environment and with other species.It is clear that some barriers to progress are sociological, basically persuading people to use the technological solutions that are already available. This is best addressed by developing more effective systems that deliver immediate benefit to the user, hiding the majority of the technology behind simple user interfaces. An infrastructure should be a space in which activities take place and, as such, should be effectively invisible.This community consultation paper positions the role of biodiversity informatics, for the next decade, presenting the actions needed to link the various biodiversity infrastructures invisibly and to facilitate understanding that can support both business and policy-makers. The community considers the goal in biodiversity informatics to be full integration of the biodiversity research community, including citizens' science, through a commonly-shared, sustainable e-infrastructure across all sub-disciplines that reliably serves science and society alike.

Harnessing microbiome and probiotic research in sub-Saharan Africa: recommendations from an African workshop

To augment capacity-building for microbiome and probiotic research in Africa, a workshop was held in Nairobi, Kenya, at which researchers discussed human, animal, insect, and agricultural microbiome and probiotics/prebiotics topics. Five recommendations were made to promote future basic and translational research that benefits Africans.

Probiotic administration attenuates myocardial hypertrophy and heart failure following myocardial infarction in the rat

Background—Probiotics are extensively used to promote gastrointestinal health and emerging evidence suggests that their beneficial properties can extend beyond the local environment of the gut. Here, we determined whether oral probiotic administration can alter the progression of post-infarction heart failure. Methods and Results—Rats were subjected to six weeks of sustained coronary artery occlusion and administered the probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 or placebo in the drinking water ad libitum. Culture and 16s rRNA sequencing showed no evidence of GR-1 colonization or a significant shift in the composition of the cecal microbiome. However, animals administered GR-1 exhibited a significant attenuation of left ventricular hypertrophy based on tissue weight assessment as well as gene expression of atrial natriuretic peptide. Moreover, these animals demonstrated improved hemodynamic parameters reflecting both improved systolic and diastolic left ventricular function. Serial echocardiography revealed significantly improved left ventricular parameters throughout the six week follow-up period including a marked preservation of left ventricular ejection fraction as well as fractional shortening. Beneficial effects of GR-1 were still evident in those animals in which GR-1 was withdrawn at four weeks suggesting persistence of the GR-1 effects following cessation of therapy. Investigation of mechanisms showed a significant increase in the leptin to adiponectin plasma concentration ratio in rats subjected to coronary ligation which was abrogated by GR-1. Metabonomic analysis showed differences between sham control and coronary artery ligated hearts particularly with respect to preservation of myocardial taurine levels. Conclusions—The study suggests that probiotics offer promise as a potential therapy for the attenuation of heart failure.

N1 enhancement in synesthesia during visual and audio-visual perception in semantic cross-modal conflict situations: an ERP study

Synesthesia entails a special kind of sensory perception, where stimulation in one sensory modality leads to an internally generated perceptual experience of another, not stimulated sensory modality. This phenomenon can be viewed as an abnormal multisensory integration process as here the synesthetic percept is aberrantly fused with the stimulated modality. Indeed, recent synesthesia research has focused on multimodal processing even outside of the specific synesthesia-inducing context and has revealed changed multimodal integration, thus suggesting perceptual alterations at a global level. Here, we focused on audio-visual processing in synesthesia using a semantic classification task in combination with visually or auditory-visually presented animated and in animated objects in an audio-visual congruent and incongruent manner. Fourteen subjects with auditory-visual and/or grapheme-color synesthesia and 14 control subjects participated in the experiment. During presentation of the stimuli, event-related potentials were recorded from 32 electrodes. The analysis of reaction times and error rates revealed no group differences with best performance for audio-visually congruent stimulation indicating the well-known multimodal facilitation effect. We found enhanced amplitude of the N1 component over occipital electrode sites for synesthetes compared to controls. The differences occurred irrespective of the experimental condition and therefore suggest a global influence on early sensory processing in synesthetes.

Microbes central to human reproduction

As studies uncover the breadth of microbes associated with human life, opportunities will emerge to manipulate and augment their functions in ways that improve health and longevity. From involvement in the complexities of reproduction and fetal/infant development, to delaying the onset of disease, and indeed countering many maladies, microbes offer hope for human well-being. Evidence is emerging to suggest that microbes may play a beneficial role in body sites traditionally viewed as being sterile. Although further evidence is required, we propose that much of medical dogma is about to change significantly through recognition and understanding of these hitherto unrecognized microbe–host interactions. A meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics held in Aberdeen, Scotland (June 2014), presented new views and challenged established concepts on the role of microbes in reproduction and health of the mother and infant. This article summarizes some of the main aspects of these discussions.

FTO influences adipogenesis by regulating mitotic clonal expansion

The fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene plays a pivotal role in regulating body weight and fat mass; however, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we show that primary adipocytes and mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) derived from FTO overexpression (FTO-4) mice exhibit increased potential for adipogenic differentiation, while MEFs derived from FTO knockout (FTO-KO) mice show reduced adipogenesis. As predicted from these findings, fat pads from FTO-4 mice fed a high-fat diet show more numerous adipocytes. FTO influences adipogenesis by regulating events early in adipogenesis, during the process of mitotic clonal expansion. The effect of FTO on adipogenesis appears to be mediated via enhanced expression of the pro-adipogenic short isoform of RUNX1T1, which enhanced adipocyte proliferation, and is increased in FTO-4 MEFs and reduced in FTO-KO MEFs. Our findings provide novel mechanistic insight into how upregulation of FTO leads to obesity.