Greenhouse whitefly (Homoptera : Aleyrodidae) dispersal under different UV-light environments

The greenhouse whitefly, Dialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae), is known to respond to UV light (UV). Field studies were conducted to improve our understanding of the behavioral effects and practical implications of using UV-blocking plastic films for the control of whitefly. Adult whiteflies were released in outdoor-located choice-chamber experiments with compartments clad with a range of films that transmitted incident UV to different extents. In release-recapture experiments, a very small proportion of the whiteflies recovered had dispersed into compartments where the entire UV spectrum was blocked, whereas the major proportion preferred compartments with UV. Compartments clad with films that blocked LTV below 375 nm attracted significantly more whiteflies than films that blocked UV below 385 nm, whereas the absorption of LTV wavelengths above 385 nm did not show any further effect on whitefly numbers. A reduction in the side cladding of the compartments by > 20% significantly reduced the advantage of using LTV-blocking films. Adult whitefly did not discriminate between direct- and diffused-light environments, as long as the UV-absorbing properties of the films were equivalent. Whitefly dispersal was influenced by the time of the day when adult whitefly were released, with a higher proportion of whitelly avoiding compartments clad with LTV-blocking films, at times of the day when light intensities were higher. The future use of UV-blocking films as a potentially highly effective component of integrated pest management systems for the control of whitefly is discussed.

Far-red light filtering by plastic film, greenhouse-cladding materials: effects on growth and flowering in Petunia and Impatiens

Photoselective plastic films with low transmission to far-red (FR) light (700-800 nm) are now available so that plants grown in greenhouses clad with such plastics exhibit reduced stem extension and, consequently, plant height. Here we compare the action of three FR-absorbing polythene films on extension growth of Petunia (Petunia X hybrida) cv. 'Express Blue' and Impatiens walleriana cv. 'Accent Deep Pink' with plants grown under a control polythene film (standard UVI/EVA film). Half of the plants under the control film were treated with a chemical plant growth regulator (PGR; diaminozide, B-Nine) and half were sprayed with water alone. Possible negative effects of such film plastics on flowering, and on fresh and dry weight accumulation, were also quantified. Plants were harvested destructively when all plants in each treatment had reached the first open flower stage. In Petunia, plant height was reduced by all three FR-filtering films and by PGR-treatment. The FR-filtering films giving the highest R:FR ratios also reduced plant height in Impatiens. Leaf number, leaf area and total dry Weight in both species. were greatest in the controls and smallest under films with the lowest PAR transmission. The film giving the highest R:FR ratio and PAR transmission also produced the most compact Petunia plants;, while the film. with. the lowest PAR transmission produced the least compact plants in both species. There was no significant effect of treatments on time to first flower in Impatiens. However, Petunia plants under low PAR transmission films took longer to flower. Plastic-films which filter out FR light to increase the R:FR ratio, combined With high PAR transmission, can therefore be used as an alternative to conventional PGRs.

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO2, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO2. Results indicate that SST and CO2 change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO2 change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO2 and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO2 change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.

Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change

In response to increasing atmospheric con- centrations of greenhouse gases, the rate of time- dependent climate change is determined jointly by the strength of climate feedbacks and the e�ciency of pro- cesses which remove heat from the surface into the deep ocean. This work examines the vertical heat transport processes in the ocean of the HADCM2 atmosphere± ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) in experi- ments with CO2 held constant (control) and increasing at 1% per year (anomaly). The control experiment shows that global average heat exchanges between the upper and lower ocean are dominated by the Southern Ocean, where heat is pumped downwards by the wind- driven circulation and di�uses upwards along sloping isopycnals. This is the reverse of the low-latitude balance used in upwelling±di�usion ocean models, the global average upward di�usive transport being against the temperature gradient. In the anomaly experiment, weakened convection at high latitudes leads to reduced diffusive and convective heat loss from the deep ocean, and hence to net heat uptake, since the advective heat input is less a�ected. Reduction of deep water produc- tion at high latitudes results in reduced upwelling of cold water at low latitudes, giving a further contribution to net heat uptake. On the global average, high-latitude processes thus have a controlling in¯uence. The impor- tant role of di�usion highlights the need to ensure that the schemes employed in AOGCMs give an accurate representation of the relevant sub-grid-scale processes.

The effect of climate change on the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

With extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, especially during early winter. The results using these diagnostics not only characterize the vortex structure and evolution but also emphasize the need for vortex-centric diagnostics over zonally averaged measures. Finally, vortex variability is subdivided into wave-1 (displaced) and -2 (split) components, and it is implied that vortex displacement events increase in frequency under climate change, whereas little change is observed in splitting events.

A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

A state-of-the-art chemistry climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model is used to produce three experiments, all seamlessly covering the period 1950–2100, forced by different combinations of long-lived Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs). The experiments are designed to quantify the separate effects of GHGs and ODSs on the evolution of ozone, as well as the extent to which these effects are independent of each other, by alternately holding one set of these two forcings constant in combination with a third experiment where both ODSs and GHGs vary. We estimate that up to the year 2000 the net decrease in the column amount of ozone above 20 hPa is approximately 75% of the decrease that can be attributed to ODSs due to the offsetting effects of cooling by increased CO2. Over the 21st century, as ODSs decrease, continued cooling from CO2 is projected to account for more than 50% of the projected increase in ozone above 20 hPa. Changes in ozone below 20 hPa show a redistribution of ozone from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with an increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In addition to a latitudinal redistribution of ozone, we find that the globally averaged column amount of ozone below 20 hPa decreases over the 21st century, which significantly mitigates the effect of upper stratospheric cooling on total column ozone. Analysis by linear regression shows that the recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs generally follows the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine levels, with the exception of the lower polar stratosphere where recovery of ozone in the second half of the 21st century is slower than would be indicated by the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine concentrations. These results also reveal the degree to which GHGrelated effects mute the chemical effects of N2O on ozone in the standard future scenario used for the WMO Ozone Assessment. Increases in the residual circulation of the atmosphere and chemical effects from CO2 cooling more than halve the increase in reactive nitrogen in the mid to upper stratosphere that results from the specified increase in N2O between 1950 and 2100.

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes.

Direct and ozone-mediated forcing of the Southern Annular Mode by greenhouse gases

We assess the roles of long-lived greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in driving meridional surface pressure gradients in the southern extratropics; these gradients are a defining feature of the Southern Annular Mode. Stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to have caused a strengthening of this mode during summer, with increasing long-lived greenhouse gases playing a secondary role. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we show that there is cancelation between the direct, radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases by the also substantial indirect—chemical and dynamical—feedbacks that greenhouse gases have via their impact on ozone. This sensitivity of the mode to greenhouse gas-induced ozone changes suggests that a consistent implementation of ozone changes due to long-lived greenhouse gases in climate models benefits the simulation of this important aspect of Southern Hemisphere climate.