Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.

A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections

A strong climatic warming is currently observed in the Caucasus mountains, which has profound impact on runoff generation in the glaciated Glavny (Main) Range and on water availability in the whole region. To assess future changes in the hydrological cycle, the output of a general circulation model was downscaled statistically. For the 21st century, a further warming by 4–7 °C and a slight precipitation increase is predicted. Measured and simulated meteorological variables were used as input into a runoff model to transfer climate signals into a hydrological response under both present and future climate forcings. Runoff scenarios for the mid and the end of the 21st century were generated for different steps of deglaciation. The results show a satisfactory model performance for periods with observed runoff. Future water availability strongly depends on the velocity of glacier retreat. In a first phase, a surplus of water will increase flood risk in hot years and after continuing glacier reduction, annual runoff will again approximate current values. However, the seasonal distribution of streamflow will change towards runoff increase in spring and lower flows in summer.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

Global retrieval of ATSR cloud parameters and evaluation (GRAPE): dataset assessment

The Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) provide a long time-series of measurements suitable for the retrieval of cloud properties. This work evaluates the freely-available Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) dataset (version 3) created from the ATSR-2 (1995�2003) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR; 2002 onwards) records. Users are recommended to consider only retrievals flagged as high-quality, where there is a good consistency between the measurements and the retrieved state (corresponding to about 60% of converged retrievals over sea, and more than 80% over land). Cloud properties are found to be generally free of any significant spurious trends relating to satellite zenith angle. Estimates of the random error on retrieved cloud properties are suggested to be generally appropriate for optically-thick clouds, and up to a factor of two too small for optically-thin cases. The correspondence between ATSR-2 and AATSR cloud properties is high, but a relative calibration difference between the sensors of order 5�10% at 660 nm and 870 nm limits the potential of the current version of the dataset for trend analysis. As ATSR-2 is thought to have the better absolute calibration, the discussion focusses on this portion of the record. Cloud-top heights from GRAPE compare well to ground-based data at four sites, particularly for shallow clouds. Clouds forming in boundary-layer inversions are typically around 1 km too high in GRAPE due to poorly-resolved inversions in the modelled temperature profiles used. Global cloud fields are compared to satellite products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, and a climatology of liquid water content derived from satellite microwave radiometers. In all cases the main reasons for differences are linked to differing sensitivity to, and treatment of, multi-layer cloud systems. The correlation coefficient between GRAPE and the two MODIS products considered is generally high (greater than 0.7 for most cloud properties), except for liquid and ice cloud effective radius, which also show biases between the datasets. For liquid clouds, part of the difference is linked to choice of wavelengths used in the retrieval. Total cloud cover is slightly lower in GRAPE (0.64) than the CALIOP dataset (0.66). GRAPE underestimates liquid cloud water path relative to microwave radiometers by up to 100 g m�2 near the Equator and overestimates by around 50 g m�2 in the storm tracks. Finally, potential future improvements to the algorithm are outlined.

High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3, 4, 5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3, 6, 7, 8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate–carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate–carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO2-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing

We diagnose forcing and climate feedbacks in benchmark sensitivity experiments with the new Met Office Hadley Centre Earth system climate model HadGEM2-ES. To identify the impact of newly-included biogeophysical and chemical processes, results are compared to a parallel set of experiments performed with these processes switched off, and different couplings with the biogeochemistry. In abrupt carbon dioxide quadrupling experiments we find that the inclusion of these processes does not alter the global climate sensitivity of the model. However, when the change in carbon dioxide is uncoupled from the vegetation, or when the model is forced with a non-carbon dioxide forcing – an increase in solar constant – new feedbacks emerge that make the climate system less sensitive to external perturbations. We identify a strong negative dust-vegetation feedback on climate change that is small in standard carbon dioxide sensitivity experiments due to the physiological/fertilization effects of carbon dioxide on plants in this model.

Scale sensitivity of drivers of environmental change across Europe

The development of effective environmental management plans and policies requires a sound understanding of the driving forces involved in shaping and altering the structure and function of ecosystems. However, driving forces, especially anthropogenic ones, are defined and operate at multiple administrative levels, which do not always match ecological scales. This paper presents an innovative methodology of analysing drivers of change by developing a typology of scale sensitivity of drivers that classifies and describes the way they operate across multiple administrative levels. Scale sensitivity varies considerably among drivers, which can be classified into five broad categories depending on the response of ‘evenness’ and ‘intensity change’ when moving across administrative levels. Indirect drivers tend to show low scale sensitivity, whereas direct drivers show high scale sensitivity, as they operate in a non-linear way across the administrative scale. Thus policies addressing direct drivers of change, in particular, need to take scale into consideration during their formulation. Moreover, such policies must have a strong spatial focus, which can be achieved either by encouraging local–regional policy making or by introducing high flexibility in (inter)national policies to accommodate increased differentiation at lower administrative levels. High quality data is available for several drivers, however, the availability of consistent data at all levels for non-anthropogenic drivers is a major constraint to mapping and assessing their scale sensitivity. This lack of data may hinder effective policy making for environmental management, since it restricts the ability to fully account for scale sensitivity of natural drivers in policy design.

Sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to past, present and future environmental conditions and implications for atmospheric chemistry.

[1] We have implemented a process-based isoprene emission model in the HadGEM2 Earth-system model with coupled atmospheric chemistry in order to examine the feedback between isoprene emission and climate. Isoprene emissions and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate are estimated for preindustrial (1860–1869), present-day (2000–2009), and future (2100–2109) climate conditions. The estimate of 460 TgC/yr for present-day global total isoprene emission is consistent with previous estimates. Preindustrial isoprene emissions are estimated to be 26% higher than present-day. Future isoprene emissions using the RCP8.5 scenario are similar to present-day because increased emissions resulting from climate warming are countered by CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions. The impact of biogenic isoprene emissions on the global O3 burden and CH4 lifetime is small but locally significant, and the impact of changes in isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on the state of climate and chemistry.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Optimising the FAMOUS climate model: inclusion of global carbon cycling

FAMOUS fills an important role in the hierarchy of climate models, both explicitly resolving atmospheric and oceanic dynamics yet being sufficiently computationally efficient that either very long simulations or large ensembles are possible. An improved set of carbon cycle parameters for this model has been found using a perturbed physics ensemble technique. This is an important step towards building the "Earth System" modelling capability of FAMOUS, which is a reduced resolution, and hence faster running, version of the Hadley Centre Climate model, HadCM3. Two separate 100 member perturbed parameter ensembles were performed; one for the land surface and one for the ocean. The land surface scheme was tested against present-day and past representations of vegetation and the ocean ensemble was tested against observations of nitrate. An advantage of using a relatively fast climate model is that a large number of simulations can be run and hence the model parameter space (a large source of climate model uncertainty) can be more thoroughly sampled. This has the associated benefit of being able to assess the sensitivity of model results to changes in each parameter. The climatologies of surface and tropospheric air temperature and precipitation are improved relative to previous versions of FAMOUS. The improved representation of upper atmosphere temperatures is driven by improved ozone concentrations near the tropopause and better upper level winds.

Scale sensitivity of drivers of environmental change across Europe

The development of effective environmental management plans and policies requires a sound understanding of the driving forces involved in shaping and altering the structure and function of ecosystems. However, driving forces, especially anthropogenic ones, are defined and operate at multiple administrative levels, which do not always match ecological scales. This paper presents an innovative methodology of analysing drivers of change by developing a typology of scale sensitivity of drivers that classifies and describes the way they operate across multiple administrative levels. Scale sensitivity varies considerably among drivers, which can be classified into five broad categories depending on the response of ‘evenness’ and ‘intensity change’ when moving across administrative levels. Indirect drivers tend to show low scale sensitivity, whereas direct drivers show high scale sensitivity, as they operate in a non-linear way across the administrative scale. Thus policies addressing direct drivers of change, in particular, need to take scale into consideration during their formulation. Moreover, such policies must have a strong spatial focus, which can be achieved either by encouraging local–regional policy making or by introducing high flexibility in (inter)national policies to accommodate increased differentiation at lower administrative levels. High quality data is available for several drivers, however, the availability of consistent data at all levels for non-anthropogenic drivers is a major constraint to mapping and assessing their scale sensitivity. This lack of data may hinder effective policy making for environmental management, since it restricts the ability to fully account for scale sensitivity of natural drivers in policy design.

High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr

Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.