Scale sensitivity of drivers of environmental change across Europe

The development of effective environmental management plans and policies requires a sound understanding of the driving forces involved in shaping and altering the structure and function of ecosystems. However, driving forces, especially anthropogenic ones, are defined and operate at multiple administrative levels, which do not always match ecological scales. This paper presents an innovative methodology of analysing drivers of change by developing a typology of scale sensitivity of drivers that classifies and describes the way they operate across multiple administrative levels. Scale sensitivity varies considerably among drivers, which can be classified into five broad categories depending on the response of ‘evenness’ and ‘intensity change’ when moving across administrative levels. Indirect drivers tend to show low scale sensitivity, whereas direct drivers show high scale sensitivity, as they operate in a non-linear way across the administrative scale. Thus policies addressing direct drivers of change, in particular, need to take scale into consideration during their formulation. Moreover, such policies must have a strong spatial focus, which can be achieved either by encouraging local–regional policy making or by introducing high flexibility in (inter)national policies to accommodate increased differentiation at lower administrative levels. High quality data is available for several drivers, however, the availability of consistent data at all levels for non-anthropogenic drivers is a major constraint to mapping and assessing their scale sensitivity. This lack of data may hinder effective policy making for environmental management, since it restricts the ability to fully account for scale sensitivity of natural drivers in policy design.

Simulation of the global ENSO–Tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model

This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

Environmental justice and conceptions of the green economy

Green economy has become one of the most fashionable terms in global environmental public policy discussions and forums. Despite this popularity, and its being selected as one of the organizing themes of the United Nations Rio+20 Conference in Brazil, June 2012, its prospects as an effective mobilization tool for global environmental sustainability scholarship and practice remains unclear. A major reason for this is that much like its precursor concepts such as environmental sustainability and sustainable development, green economy is a woolly concept which lends itself to many interpretations. Hence, rather than resolve long-standing controversies, green economy merely reinvigorates existing debates over the visions, actors and policies best suited to secure a more sustainable future for all. In this review article, we aim to fill an important gap in scholarship by suggesting various ways in which green economy may be organized and synthesized as a concept, and especially in terms of its relationship with the idea of social and environmental justice. Accordingly, we offer a systemization of possible interpretations of green economy mapped onto a synthesis of existing typologies of environmental justice. This classification provides the context for future analysis of which, and how, various notions of green economy link with various conceptions of justice.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

The ethical dimensions of global change

This chapter briefly examines the connections between ethics and the politics of global environmental change. I contrast ethical conceptions of the environment with more conventional characterizations of the environmental challenge, in order to indicate some of the core issues and related questions about which ethical theorists engaging with the global environmental change discourse tend to be concerned. I also offer a brief discussion on the key challenge of ethics on global institutional governance of environmental change.

Health Benefits of Organic Food: effects of the environment

Public concern over impacts of chemicals in plant and animal production on health and the environment has led to increased demand for organic produce, which is usually promoted and often perceived as containing fewer contaminants, more nutrients, and being positive for the environment. These benefits are difficult to quantify, and potential environmental impacts on such benefits have not been widely studied. This book addresses these key points, examining factors such as the role of certain nutrients in prevention and promotion of chronic disease, potential health benefits of bioactive compounds in plants, the prevalence of food-borne pesticides and pathogens and how both local and global environmental factors may affect any differences between organic and conventionally produced food. This book is an essential resource for researchers and students in human health and nutrition, environmental science, agriculture and organic farming. Main Contents 1. Organic farming and food systems: definitions and key characteristics. 2. The health benefits of n-3 fatty acids and their concentrations in organic and conventional animal-derived foods. 3. Environmental impacts on n-3 content of foods from ruminant animals. 4. Health benefits and selenium content of organic vs conventional foods. 5. Environmental impacts concerning the selenium content of foods. 6. Contaminants in organic and conventional food: the missing link between contaminant levels and health effects. 7. Mycotoxins in organic and conventional foods and effects of the environment. 8. Human pathogens in organic and conventional foods and effects of the environment. 9. What does consumer science tell us about organic foods? 10. The beneficial effects of dietary flavonoids: sources, bioavailability and biological functions. 11. Environmental regulation of flavonoid biosynthesis. 12. Nitrates in the human diet. 13. Impacts of environment and management on nitrate in vegetables and water. 14. Effects of the environment on the nutritional quality and safety of organically produced foods: Round-up and summary.

Post-Sustainable Development

The past 15 years have witnessed the rise of post-development theory as a means of understanding the development discourse since the 1940s. Post-development argues that intentional development (as distinct from immanent development - what people are doing anyway) is a construct of Western hegemony. Sustainable development, they argue, is no different and indeed is perhaps worse, given that most of the global environmental degradation has been driven by consumerism and industrialization in the West. Critics of post-development counter by stating that it only provides destruction by tearing apart what is currently practiced in 'development' without providing an alternative. When post-developmentalists do offer an alternative it typically amouints to little more than a call for more grassroots involvement in development and disengagement from a Western agenda. Post-sustainable development analysis and counter-analysis has received remarkably little attention within the sustainable development literature, yet this paper argues that it can make a positive contributrion by calling for an analysis of discourse rather than a hiding of power differentials and an assumption that consensus must exist within a community. A case is made for a post-sustainable development that acknowledges that diversity will exist and consensus may not be achievable, but at the same time participation can help with learning. The role of the expert within sustainable development is also discussed. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Post-(sustainable)-development?

This paper critically reviews the application of a post-development analysis to sustainable development by employing a defined target for post-development analysis – the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Data from the 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) for 146 countries are used to generate statistically significant EKC models, and the approach is deconstructed by employing post-development theory. While an ESI derived EKC is an easy target for post-development critique, there are foundations upon which both rest, and are not easily dismissed. Neither is the typical post-development 'alternative' of encouraging 'endogenous discourse' and grassroots movements at odds with sustainable development. As a result, this paper argues that sustainable development theory already incorporates much of the critique and alternatives raised by post-developmentalists. Indeed, what is more disconcerting is that sustainable development readily encompasses such apparently divergent ideas represented by the ESI, EKC and post-developmental critique and solutions.

Making 'dirty' nations look clean? The nation state and the problem of selecting and weighting indices as tools for measuring progress towards sustainability

Pressing global environmental problems highlight the need to develop tools to measure progress towards "sustainability." However, some argue that any such attempt inevitably reflects the views of those creating such tools and only produce highly contested notions of "reality." To explore this tension, we critically assesses the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), a well-publicized product of the World Economic Forum that is designed to measure 'sustainability' by ranking nations on league tables based on extensive databases of environmental indicators. By recreating this index, and then using statistical tools (principal components analysis) to test relations between various components of the index, we challenge ways in which countries are ranked in the ESI. Based on this analysis, we suggest (1) that the approach taken to aggregate, interpret and present the ESI creates a misleading impression that Western countries are more sustainable than the developing world; (2) that unaccounted methodological biases allowed the authors of the ESI to over-generalize the relative 'sustainability' of different countries; and, (3) that this has resulted in simplistic conclusions on the relation between economic growth and environmental sustainability. This criticism should not be interpreted as a call for the abandonment of efforts to create standardized comparable data. Instead, this paper proposes that indicator selection and data collection should draw on a range of voices, including local stakeholders as well as international experts. We also propose that aggregating data into final league ranking tables is too prone to error and creates the illusion of absolute and categorical interpretations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1)

[ 1] A rapid increase in the variety, quality, and quantity of observations in polar regions is leading to a significant improvement in the understanding of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes and their representation in global climate models. We assess the simulation of sea ice in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) against the latest available observations. The HadGEM1 sea ice component uses elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics, multiple ice thickness categories, and zero-layer thermodynamics. The model evaluation is focused on the mean state of the key variables of ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and albedo. The model shows good agreement with observational data sets. The variability of the ice forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation is also found to agree with observations.

Challenges with minimising mercury pollution in the small-scale gold mining sector: Experiences from the Guianas

This paper examines the barriers to mitigating mercury pollution at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas (Guyana, French Guiana and Suriname), and prescribes recommendations for overcoming these obstacles. Whilst considerable attention has been paid to analysing the environmental impacts of operations in the region, minimal research has been undertaken to identify appropriate policy and educational initiatives for addressing the mounting mercury problem. Findings from recent fieldwork and selected interviews with operators from Guyanese and Surinamese gold mining regions reveal that legislative incapacity, the region's varied industry policy stances, various technological problems, and low environmental awareness on the part of communities are impeding efforts to facilitate improved mercury management at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas. Marked improvements can be achieved, however, if legislation, particularly that pertaining to mercury, is harmonised in the region; educational seminars continue to be held in important mining districts; and additional outlets for disseminating environmental equipment and mercury-free technologies are provided.

Conservation ecology of bees: populations, species and communities

Recent concerns regarding the decline of plant and pollinator species, and the impact on ecosystem functioning, has focused attention on the local and global threats to bee diversity. As evidence for bee declines is now accumulating from over broad taxonomic and geographic scales, we review the role of ecology in bee conservation at the levels of species, populations and communities. Bee populations and communities are typified by considerable spatiotemporal variation; whereby autecological traits, population size and growth rate, and plant-pollinator network architecture all play a role in their vulnerability to extinction. As contemporary insect conservation management is broadly based on species- and habitat-targeted approaches, ecological data will be central to integrating management strategies into a broader, landscape scale of dynamic, interconnected habitats capable of delivering bee conservation in the context of global environmental change.

Antifungal activity of bacterium symbiotically associated with Steinernema abbasi towards Fusarium oxysporum

Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. lycopersici (Fol) is the causal agent of the Fusarium wilt disease of tomato. Soil fumigant (mainly methyl bromide) applications are in use for its control. With the increasing environmental awareness, biological control methods are under investigation for their effectiveness, including the use of antagonists. Pseudomonas oryzihabitans (=Flavimonas oryzihabitans), a symbiont of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema abbasi was investigated as an antagonism of a Fol isolate in two laboratory and two glasshouse experiments. Bacteria and cell-free filtrate antifungal activity were tested both in dual cultures and in broth culture. In pot experiments, suspensions of bacteria in five concentrations (106, 105, 104, 103 and 102 cells/ml) were tested for their ability to control the pathogen at 25±3°C. In all tests the bacterium significantly inhibited the growth of Fol mycelium in vitro. Similar results were obtained when the bacterium was also tested against Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. radicis lycopersici and against Rhizoctonia solani. Moreover, when it was introduced into the soil, it was able to suppress the Fusarium wilt of tomato.

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.