A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Multi-season eddy covariance observations of energy, water and carbon fluxes over a suburban area in Swindon, UK

Eddy covariance measurements of the turbulent sensible heat, latent heat and carbon dioxide fluxes for 12 months (2011–2012) are reported for the first time for a suburban area in the UK. The results from Swindon are comparable to suburban studies of similar surface cover elsewhere but reveal large seasonal variability. Energy partitioning favours turbulent sensible heat during summer (midday Bowen ratio 1.4–1.6) and latent heat in winter (0.05–0.7). A significant proportion of energy is stored (and released) by the urban fabric and the estimated anthropogenic heat flux is small but non-negligible (0.5–0.9 MJ m−2 day−1). The sensible heat flux is negative at night and for much of winter daytimes, reflecting the suburban nature of the site (44% vegetation) and relatively low built fraction (16%). Latent heat fluxes appear to be water limited during a dry spring in both 2011 and 2012, when the response of the surface to moisture availability can be seen on a daily timescale. Energy and other factors are more relevant controls at other times; at night the wind speed is important. On average, surface conductance follows a smooth, asymmetrical diurnal course peaking at around 6–9 mm s−1, but values are larger and highly variable in wet conditions. The combination of natural (vegetative) and anthropogenic (emission) processes is most evident in the temporal variation of the carbon flux: significant photosynthetic uptake is seen during summer, whilst traffic and building emissions explain peak release in winter (9.5 g C m−2 day−1). The area is a net source of CO2 annually. Analysis by wind direction highlights the role of urban vegetation in promoting evapotranspiration and offsetting CO2 emissions, especially when contrasted against peak traffic emissions from sectors with more roads. Given the extent of suburban land use, these results have important implications for understanding urban energy, water and carbon dynamics.

Genetic heterogeneity in erythropoietic protoporphyria: a study of the enzymatic defect in nine affected families

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is associated with a deficiency of protohaem ferrolyase. We have used a novel assay for this enzyme based on its ability to utilize zinc as a substrate to investigate the inheritance of EPP in nine affected families. Zinc chelatase activity was markedly reduced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 14 EPP patients (mean, 3.3 nmol Zn protohaem/h/mg protein; range, 0.3-8.0) when compared with 41 controls (16.8 +/- 3.6) p less than 0.01. In three families with parent-to-child transmission of disease, the asymptomatic parent had an enzymatic activity within the normal range. In three pedigrees where the parents were asymptomatic, enzymatic activities were below the 95% confidence limits in both. Zinc chelatase activity was below the mean control value in 17 of the 18 parents in nine affected pedigrees, and six of seven asymptomatic offspring of patients with protoporphyria. The findings suggest that EPP is not transmitted as a simple dominant trait and that inheritance of more than one gene may be required for disease expression.

Multi-instrument ground-based observations of a travelling convection vortices event

A coordinated ground-based observational campaign using the IMAGE magnetometer network, EISCAT radars and optical instruments on Svalbard has made possible detailed studies of a travelling convection vortices (TCV) event on 6 January 1992. Combining the data from these facilities allows us to draw a very detailed picture of the features and dynamics of this TCV event. On the way from the noon to the drawn meridian, the vortices went through a remarkable development. The propagation velocity in the ionosphere increased from 2.5 to 7.4 km s−1, and the orientation of the major axes of the vortices rotated from being almost parallel to the magnetic meridian near noon to essentially perpendicular at dawn. By combining electric fields obtained by EISCAT and ionospheric currents deduced from magnetic field recordings, conductivities associated with the vortices could be estimated. Contrary to expectations we found higher conductivities below the downward field aligned current (FAC) filament than below the upward directed. Unexpected results also emerged from the optical observations. For most of the time there were no discrete aurora at 557.7 nm associated with the TCVs. Only once did a discrete form appear at the foot of the upward FAC. This aurora subsequently expanded eastward and westward leaving its centre at the same longitude while the TCV continued to travel westward. Also we try to identify the source regions of TCVs in the magnetosphere and discuss possible generation mechanisms.

Adaptive alarm processor for fault diagnosis on power transmission networks

The authors describe a learning classifier system (LCS) which employs genetic algorithms (GA) for adaptive online diagnosis of power transmission network faults. The system monitors switchgear indications produced by a transmission network, reporting fault diagnoses on any patterns indicative of faulted components. The system evaluates the accuracy of diagnoses via a fault simulator developed by National Grid Co. and adapts to reflect the current network topology by use of genetic algorithms.

A study of the effect of heat source location in a ventilated room using multiple regression analysis

Multiple regression analysis is a statistical technique which allows to predict a dependent variable from m ore than one independent variable and also to determine influential independent variables. Using experimental data, in this study the multiple regression analysis is applied to predict the room mean velocity and determine the most influencing parameters on the velocity. More than 120 experiments for four different heat source locations were carried out in a test chamber with a high level wall mounted air supply terminal at air change rates 3-6 ach. The influence of the environmental parameters such as supply air momentum, room heat load, Archimedes number and local temperature ratio, were examined by two methods: a simple regression analysis incorporated into scatter matrix plots and multiple stepwise regression analysis. It is concluded that, when a heat source is located along the jet centre line, the supply momentum mainly influences the room mean velocity regardless of the plume strength. However, when the heat source is located outside the jet region, the local temperature ratio (the inverse of the local heat removal effectiveness) is a major influencing parameter.

The 'child of Babylon' and the problem of paternity in Medieval French Alexander romances

A study of the use of hybrid physical appearance both to signal and to explore the disputed paternity of Alexander the Great throughout its vernacular French tradition. The article compares the 'child of Babylon' portent and Alexander's son Alior in the twelfth-century French "Roman d'Alexandre" poem cycle, and a fifteenth-century prose adaptation of it.

Quality of medicines stored together in multi-compartment compliance aids

Background and Objective: Dispensing medicines into compliance aids is a common practice in pharmacy contrary to manufacturers’ advice and studies have shown the appearance of light-sensitive tablets is compromised by such storage; we previously found evidence of reduced bioavailability at elevated temperature and humidity. Our objective was to examine the physicochemical stability of two generic atenolol tablets in different compliance aids and with aspirin co-storage at room temperature and at 40 °C/75% relative humidity. Methods: The physicochemical stability of atenolol tablets was evaluated after 28 days of storage and compared with controls by examining visual appearance, weight, disintegration, dissolution, friability and hardness to accepted standards and using a previously validated HPLC method for chemical assay. Results and Discussion: The response to storage was brand-dependent and not straightforward. With one make of atenolol (Alpharma), storage in compliance aids even at room temperature impacted on physical stability, reducing tablet hardness, with storage in Dosett® exerting a greater impact than storage in Medidos® (t-test P < 0·001). Co-storage at elevated temperature and humidity also impacted on the appearance of non-coated aspirin tablets (Angette™). The chemical stability of atenolol was not affected and we did not find evidence of changes to bioavailability with either make. Certainly data for one atenolol make (CP Pharmaceuticals) co-stored with aspirin (Angette™ and Nu-Seals) in both compliance aids at room temperature provided evidence of short-term stability. But medicines are dispensed into compliance aids in multi-factorial ways so our study highlights not only the lack of evidence but also a realization that evidence to support real practice may not be accomplished through research. Conclusion: Reassuring practitioners of the continued stability of medicines in compliance aids under the countless condition in which they are dispensed in practice may requires a different approach involving medical device regulators and more definitive professional guidance.