The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long-term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short-term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long-term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property-backed stock returns in the UK.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Categories, concepts and units: representing energy demand in and through time

Methods of data collection are unavoidably rooted in some sort of theoretical paradigm, and are inextricably tied to an implicit agenda or broad problem framing. These prior orientations are not always explicit, but they matter for what data is collected and how it is used. They also structure opportunities for asking new questions, for linking or bridging between existing data sets and they matter even more when data is re-purposed for uses not initially anticipated. In this paper we provide an historical and comparative review of the changing categories used in organising and collecting data on mobility/travel and time use as part of ongoing work to understand, conceptualise and describe the changing patterns of domestic and mobility related energy demand within UK society. This exercise reveals systematic differences of method and approach, for instance in units of measurement, in how issues of time/duration and periodicity are handled, and how these strategies relate to the questions such data is routinely used to address. It also points to more fundamental differences in how traditions of research into mobility, domestic energy and time use have developed. We end with a discussion of the practical implications of these diverse histories for understanding and analysing changing patterns of energy/mobility demand at different scales.

Wireless Sensor Networks: MAC protocols and real time applications

Wireless Senor Networks(WSNs) detect events using one or more sensors, then collect data from detected events using these sensors. This data is aggregated and forwarded to a base station(sink) through wireless communication to provide the required operations. Different kinds of MAC and routing protocols need to be designed for WSN in order to guarantee data delivery from the source nodes to the sink. Some of the proposed MAC protocols for WSN with their techniques, advantages and disadvantages in the terms of their suitability for real time applications are discussed in this paper. We have concluded that most of these protocols can not be applied to real time applications without improvement

Interactive effect of cowpea variety, dose and exposure time on bruchid tolerance to botanical pesticides

Callosobruchus maculatus has for years remained a serious menace in cowpea in Sub-Sahara Africa. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of genotypic cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) varieties, time and dose on C. maculatus exposed to powders of Piper guineense and Eugenia aromatica. Irrespective of duration and botanicals, bruchid reared on KDV showed the highest tolerance to both plant materials; while their counterparts from IAR48V were the most susceptible. Median lethal time (LT50) also varied according to the plant materials; with the highest in KDV reared bruchid [P. guineense: KDV (18.31), IAR48V (9.27), IFBV (13.17); E. aromatica: KDV (76.01), IAR48V (5.59), IFBV (6.49)]. There was a significant impact of cowpea variety (V), exposure time (T) and dose (D) on the tolerance of C. maculatus to both plant materials. The effect of all two-way (VxT, VxD, DxT) and three way interactions (V×T×D) on the tolerance of C. maculatus to both plant materials was also significant. Varietal effect was more pronounced in bruchids exposed to E. aromatica; while exposure time was more pronounced in bruchids exposed to P. guineense.

Molecular and phenotypic characterization of the alternative seasonal growth habit and flowering time in barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare L.)

Barley can be classified into three major agronomic types, based on its seasonal growth habit (SGH): spring, winter and alternative. Winter varieties require exposure to vernalization to promote subsequent flowering and are autumn-sown. Spring varieties proceed to flowering in the absence of vernalization and are sown in the spring. The ‘alternative’ (also known as ‘facultative’) SGH is only loosely defined and can be sown in autumn or spring. Here, we investigate the molecular genetic basis of alternative barley. Analysis of the major barley vernalization (VRN-H1, VRN-H2) and photoperiod (PPD-H1, PPD-H2) response genes in a collection of 386 varieties found alternative SGH to be characterized by specific allelic combinations. Spring varieties possessed spring loci at one or both of the vernalization response loci, combined with long-day non-responsive ppd-H1 alleles and wild-type alleles at the short-day photoperiod response locus, PPD-H2. Winter varieties possessed winter alleles at both vernalization loci, in combination with the mutant ppd-H2 allele conferring delayed flowering under short-day photoperiods. In contrast, all alternative varieties investigated possessed a single spring allele (either at VRN-H1 or at VRN-H2) combined with mutant ppd-H2 alleles. This allelic combination is found only in alternative types and is diagnostic for alternative SGH in the collection studied. Analysis of flowering time under controlled environment found alternative varieties flowered later than spring control lines, with the difference most pronounced under short-day photoperiods. This work provides genetic characterization of the alternative SGH phenotype, allowing precise manipulation of SGH and flowering time within breeding programmes, and provides the molecular tools for classification of all three SGH categories within national variety registration processes.

Resources, staff beliefs and organizational culture: factors in the use of information and communication technology for adults with intellectual disabilities

Background  Access to, and the use of, information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly becoming a vital component of mainstream life. First-order (e.g. time and money) and second-order factors (e.g. beliefs of staff members) affect the use of ICT in different contexts. It is timely to investigate what these factors may be in the context of service provision for adults with intellectual disabilities given the role ICT could play in facilitating communication and access to information and opportunities as suggested in Valuing People. Method  Taking a qualitative approach, nine day service sites within one organization were visited over a period of 6 months to observe ICT-related practice and seek the views of staff members working with adults with intellectual disabilities. All day services were equipped with modern ICT equipment including computers, digital cameras, Internet connections and related peripherals. Results  Staff members reported time, training and budget as significant first-order factors. Organizational culture and beliefs about the suitability of technology for older or less able service users were the striking second-order factors mentioned. Despite similar levels of equipment, support and training, ICT use had developed in very different ways across sites. Conclusion  The provision of ICT equipment and training is not sufficient to ensure their use; the beliefs of staff members and organizational culture of sites play a substantial role in how ICT is used with and by service users. Activity theory provides a useful framework for considering how first- and second-order factors are related. Staff members need to be given clear information about the broader purpose of activities in day services, especially in relation to the lifelong learning agenda, in order to see the relevance and usefulness of ICT resources for all service users.

'Black skins-white masks': Postcolonial reflections on 'race', gender and second generation return migration to the Caribbean

This paper illustrates the opportunities afforded by the adoption of postcolonial discourse in development geography, drawing specifically on issues of transnationalism, hybridity and inbetweeness. The utility of such notions and associated approaches is illustrated by the authors' current research on the migration of young, second generation and foreign-born 'Bajan-Brits' to the small Caribbean island nation of Barbados, the homeland of their parents. Focussing on issues of 'race' and gender, the paper examines the experiences of return migration among this cohort from an interpretative perspective framed within postcolonial discourse. It argues that notwithstanding the considerable sociocultural problems of adjustment encountered, these Bajan-Brit 'returnees' may be seen as occupying positions of relative economic privilege. Theirs is a liminal space derived by virtue of having been born and/or raised in the UK and being of the black 'race'. Accordingly, they are demonstrated to be both advantaged and disadvantaged; both transnational and national; and black but, in some senses, symbolically white.

Effect of dietary supplementation of different oils during the first or second half of pregnancy on the glucose tolerance of the sow

Poor glucose tolerance may be an under-researched contributory factor in the high (10% to 20%) pre-weaning mortality rate observed in pigs. Insulin resistance commences at around week 12 of gestation in the sow, although there are conflicting reports in the literature about the extent to which insulin resistance is modulated by maternal diet. The aim of the study was to determine the effects of supplementing the maternal diet with different dietary oils during either the first half or the second half of gestation on the glucose tolerance of the sow. Sows were offered the control (C: n = 5) diet as pellets or the C diet plus 10% extra energy (h = 16 per group) derived from either. (i) extra pellets; (ii) palm oil; (iii) olive oil; (iv) sunflower oil; or (v) fish oil. Experimental diets were fed during either the first (G1) or second (G2) half of gestation. A glucose tolerance test (GTT) was conducted on day 108 of gestation by administering 0.5g/kg glucose i.v. Blood samples were taken every 5 to 10 min for 90 min post administration. The change in body weight and backfat thickness during gestation was similar but both type and timing of dietary supplementation influenced litter size and weight. With the exception of the sunflower oil group, supplementing the maternal diet in G1 resulted in larger and heavier litters, particularly in mothers offered palm oil. Basal blood glucose concentrations tended to be more elevated in G1 than G2 groups, whilst plasma insulin concentrations were similar Following a GTT, the adjusted area under the curve was greater in G1 compared to G2 sows, despite no differences in glucose clearance. Maternal diet appeared to influence the relationship between glucose curve characteristics following a GTT and litter outcome. In conclusion, the degree of insulin sensitivity can be altered by both the period during which maternal nutritional supplementation is offered and the fatty acid profile of the diet.

Segmental dynamics in entangled linear polymer melts

We present molecular dynamics (MD) and slip-springs model simulations of the chain segmental dynamics in entangled linear polymer melts. The time-dependent behavior of the segmental orientation autocorrelation functions and mean-square segmental displacements are analyzed for both flexible and semiflexible chains, with particular attention paid to the scaling relations among these dynamic quantities. Effective combination of the two simulation methods at different coarse-graining levels allows us to explore the chain dynamics for chain lengths ranging from Z ≈ 2 to 90 entanglements. For a given chain length of Z ≈ 15, the time scales accessed span for more than 10 decades, covering all of the interesting relaxation regimes. The obtained time dependence of the monomer mean square displacements, g1(t), is in good agreement with the tube theory predictions. Results on the first- and second-order segmental orientation autocorrelation functions, C1(t) and C2(t), demonstrate a clear power law relationship of C2(t) C1(t)m with m = 3, 2, and 1 in the initial, free Rouse, and entangled (constrained Rouse) regimes, respectively. The return-to-origin hypothesis, which leads to inverse proportionality between the segmental orientation autocorrelation functions and g1(t) in the entangled regime, is convincingly verified by the simulation result of C1(t) g1(t)−1 t–1/4 in the constrained Rouse regime, where for well-entangled chains both C1(t) and g1(t) are rather insensitive to the constraint release effects. However, the second-order correlation function, C2(t), shows much stronger sensitivity to the constraint release effects and experiences a protracted crossover from the free Rouse to entangled regime. This crossover region extends for at least one decade in time longer than that of C1(t). The predicted time scaling behavior of C2(t) t–1/4 is observed in slip-springs simulations only at chain length of 90 entanglements, whereas shorter chains show higher scaling exponents. The reported simulation work can be applied to understand the observations of the NMR experiments.

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

The impact of fallowing and green manuring on soil conditions and the growth of sugarcane

There are currently concerns within some sugar industries that long-term monoculture has led to soil degradation and consequent yield decline. An investigation was conducted in Swaziland to assess the effects of fallowing and green manuring practices, over a seven-month period, on sugarcane yields and the physical properties of a poorly draining clay soil. In the subsequent first sugarcane crop after planting, yields were improved from 129 t ha(-1) under continuous sugarcane to 141-144 t ha(-1) after fallowing and green manuring, but there were no significant responses in the first and second ratoon crops. Also, in the first crop after planting, root length index increased from 3.5 km m(-2) under continuous sugarcane to 5.2-6.8 km m(-2) after fallowing, and improved rooting was still evident in the first ratoon crop where there had been soil drying during the fallow period. Soil bulk density, total porosity and water-holding capacity were not affected by the fallowing practices. However, air-filled porosity increased from 11% under continuous sugarcane to 16% after fallowing, and steady state ponded infiltration rates were increased from 0.61 mm h(-1) to 1.34 mm h(-1), but these improvements were no longer evident after a year back under sugarcane. Levels of soil organic matter were reduced in all cases, probably as a result of the tillage operations involved. In the plant crop, root length was well correlated with air-filled porosity, indicating the importance of improving belowground air supply for crop production on poorly draining clay soils.

Quality of Life Issues and Second-Generation Migration: the Case of 'Bajan-Brit Returnees'

This paper forms part of research that is investigating the migration of young Bajan-Brits to Barbados. Specifically, it explores the role of quality of life issues in the decision-making processes of young Bajan-Brits as they negotiate their 'return' to Barbados. The research, based on 51 in-depth qualitative interviews conducted with an under-researched cohort of young Bajan-Brits living in Barbados, argues from a 'lure of home' conceptualisation that the return of young Bajan-Brits to Barbados can best be understood from the context of a search for a better quality of life in the face of social and economic disenfranchisement in the UK context. Subsequently, the paper examines the extent to which the quality of life factors which formed the basis of return to Barbados have in fact been realised on the part of young Bajan-Brits in their adjustment to life in Barbados. The paper ultimately argues that despite problems of adjustment, young Bajan-Brits have generally been successful in actualising a better quality of life in Barbados. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).