The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average 12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, 3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3% of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Cultural policy, literature and readership in revolutionary Cuba: the view from the 21st century

This article presents a fresh perspective on cultural policy in revolutionary Cuba, focusing specifically on the centrality of dialogue with the general readership to the production, reception and regulation of literature. It first summarises the positions regarding revolutionary literature that have been asserted and essayed at various points along the sometimes chaotic trajectory of revolution in Cuba. It then examines reading-related policies and recent attempts within Cuba to re-orient reading practices in the aftermath of the Período Especial [Special Period], and ends by presenting current Cuban debates on the need to mitigate dialogic breakdown between literary text and readership.

Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photograpy

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the most influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (∼20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (∼40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.