The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Building synergies in development research: The application of the mosaic model to animal health research

Development research has responded to a number of charges over the past few decades. For example, when traditional research was accused of being 'top-down', the response was participatory research, linking the 'receptors' to the generators of research. As participatory processes were recognised as producing limited outcomes, the demand-led agenda was born. In response to the alleged failure of research to deliver its products, the 'joined-up' model, which links research with the private sector, has become popular. However, using examples from animal-health research, this article demonstrates that all the aforementioned approaches are seriously limited in their attempts to generate outputs to address the multi-faceted problems facing the poor. The article outlines a new approach to research: the Mosaic Model. By combining different knowledge forms, and focusing on existing gaps, the model aims to bridge basic and applied findings to enhance the efficiency and value of research, past, present, and future.

Effects of desiccation on seed germination, cracking, fungal infection and survival in storage of Sterculia foetida L

Seeds of Sterculia foetida were tested for germination following desiccation and subsequent hermetic storage. Whereas seeds at 10.3% moisture content were intact and provided 98% germination, further desiccation reduced germination substantially. The majority of seed coats had cracked after desiccation to 5.1% moisture content. Ability to germinate was not reduced after 12 months' hermetic storage at 10.3% and 7.3% moisture content at 15 degrees C or -18 degrees C, but was reduced considerably at 5.1%. Fungal infection was detected consistently for cracked seeds in germination tests and they did not germinate. However, almost all embryos extracted from cracked seeds germinated if first disinfected with sodium hypochlorite (1%, 5 minutes). In addition. 80 -100% of disinfected extracted embryos from cracked seeds stored hermetically for 28 d at -18 degrees C or -82 degrees C with 3.3% to 6.0% moisture content, and excised embryos stored in this way, were able to germinate. Hence. failure of the very dry seeds of Sterculia foetida to germinate was not due to embryo death from desiccation but to cracking increasing susceptibility to fungal infection upon rehydration. Cracking was associated negatively and strongly with relative humidity and appears to be a mechanical consequence of substantial differences between the isotherms of whole seeds compared with cotyledons and axes.

Long-term effectiveness of sowing high and low diversity seed mixtures to enhance plant community development on ex-arable fields

Questions: How is succession on ex-arable land affected by sowing high and low diversity mixtures of grassland species as compared to natural succession? How long do effects persist? Location: Experimental plots installed in the Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Methods: The experiment was established on ex-arable land, with five blocks, each containing three 10 m x 10 m experiment tal plots: natural colonization, a low- (four species) and high-diversity (15 species) seed mixture. Species composition and biomass was followed for eight years. Results: The sown plants considerably affected the whole successional pathway and the effects persisted during the whole eight year period. Whilst the proportion of sown species (characterized by their cover) increased during the study period, the number of sown species started to decrease from the third season onwards. Sowing caused suppression of natural colonizing species, and the sown plots had more biomass. These effects were on average larger in the high diversity mixtures. However, the low diversity replicate sown with the mixture that produced the largest biomass or largest suppression of natural colonizers fell within the range recorded at the five replicates of the high diversity plots. The natural colonization plots usually had the highest total species richness and lowest productivity at the end of the observation period. Conclusions: The effect of sowing demonstrated dispersal limitation as a factor controlling the rate of early secondary succession. Diversity was important primarily for its 'insurance effect': the high diversity mixtures were always able to compensate for the failure of some species.

The effect of environment on endosperm cell-wall development in Triticum aestivum during grain filling: an infrared spectroscopic imaging study

One of the major factors contributing to the failure of new wheat varieties is seasonal variability in end-use quality. Consequently, it is important to produce varieties which are robust and stable over a range of environmental conditions. Recently developed sample preparation methods have allowed the application of FT-IR spectroscopic imaging methods to the analysis of wheat endosperm cell wall composition, allowing the spatial distribution of structural components to be determined without the limitations of conventional chemical analysis. The advantages of the methods, described in this paper, are that they determine the composition of endosperm cell walls in situ and with minimal modification during preparation. Two bread-making wheat cultivars, Spark and Rialto, were selected to determine the impact of environmental conditions on the cell-wall composition of the starchy endosperm of the developing and mature grain, focusing on the period of grain filling (starting at about 14 days after anthesis). Studies carried out over two successive seasons show that the structure of the arabinoxylans in the endosperm cell walls changes from a highly branched form to a less branched form. Furthermore, during development the rate of restructuring was faster when the plants were grown at higher temperature with restricted water availability from 14 days after anthesis with differences in the rate of restructuring occurring between the two cultivars.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Increased apoptosis in first trimester extravillous trophoblasts from pregnancies at higher risk of developing preeclampsia

Preeclampsia complicates 5 to 10% of pregnancies and is a leading cause of maternal and fetal mortality and morbidity. Although the cause is unknown, inadequate invasion and remodeling of maternal uterine arteries by extravillous trophoblasts (EVTs) in the first trimester is a common feature. Uterine spiral artery resistance as detected by Doppler ultrasound is commonly used in the second trimester to identify pregnancies destined to develop preeclampsia. Correlation between high uterine resistance and the failure of trophoblast invasion has been reported as early as 12 weeks. However, the reason for this failure has not been established. Understanding the processes involved would significantly improve our diagnostic potential. In this study, we correlated increased first trimester uterine artery resistance with a biological abnormality in trophoblast function. EVTs derived from high-resistance pregnancies were more sensitive to apoptotic stimuli than those from normal-resistance pregnancies. Survival of EVTs from high-resistance pregnancies could be increased by nitric oxide, whereas inhibition of nitric oxide in cells from normal-resistance pregnancies increased apoptotic sensitivity. This predates the onset of symptoms by several weeks and provides evidence for a mechanism responsible for the incomplete uterine vessel remodeling and the differences in artery resistance between preeclamptic and normal pregnancies.

Development of the mammalian urethra is controlled by Fgfr2-IIIb

Development of external genitalia in mammalian embryos requires tight coordination of a complex series of morphogenetic events involving outgrowth, proximodistal and dorsoventral patterning, and epithelial tubulogenesis. Hypospadias is a congenital defect of the external genitalia that results from failure of urethral tube closure. Although this is the second most common birth defect in humans, affecting one in every 250 children, the molecular mechanisms that regulate morphogenesis of the mammalian urethra are poorly understood. We report that mice lacking the IIIb isoform of fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (Fgfr2) exhibit severe hypospadias. Urethral signaling regions, as indicated by Shh and Fgf8 expression, are established in Fgfr2-IIIb null mice; however, cell proliferation arrests prematurely and maturation of the urethral epithelium is disrupted. Fgfr2-IIIb(-/-) mutants fail to maintain the progenitor cell population required for uroepithelial renewal during tubular morphogenesis. In addition, we show that antagonism of the androgen receptor (AR) leads to loss of Fgfr2-IIIb and Fgf10 expression in the urethra, and an associated hypospadias phenotype, suggesting that these genes are downstream targets of AR during external genital development. Genitourinary defects resulting from disruption of AR activity, by either genetic or environmental factors, may therefore involve negative regulation of the Fgfr2 pathway. This represents the first example of how the developing genitourinary system integrates cues from systemically circulating steroid hormones with a locally expressed growth factor pathway.

Evaluation of malacosporean life cycles through transmission studies

Myxozoans, belonging to the recently described Class Malacosporea, parasitise freshwater bryozoans during at least part of their life cycle, but no complete malacosporean life cycle is known to date. One of the 2 described malacosporeans is Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, the causative agent of salmonid proliferative kidney disease. The other is Buddenbrockia plumatellae, so far only found in freshwater bryozoans. Our investigations evaluated malacosporean life cycles, focusing on transmission from fish to bryozoan and from bryozoan to bryozoan. We exposed bryozoans to possible infection from: stages of T bryosalmonae in fish kidney and released in fish urine; spores of T bryosalmonae that had developed in bryozoan hosts; and spores and sac stages of B. plumatellae that had developed in bryozoans. Infections were never observed by microscopic examination of post-exposure, cultured bryozoans and none were detected by PCR after culture. Our consistent negative results are compelling: trials incorporated a broad range of parasite stages and potential hosts, and failure of transmission across trials cannot be ascribed to low spore concentrations or immature infective stages. The absence of evidence for bryozoan to bryozoan transmissions for both malacosporeans strongly indicates that such transmission is precluded in malacosporean life cycles. Overall, our results imply that there may be another malacosporean host which remains unidentified, although transmission from fish to bryozoans requires further investigation. However, the highly clonal life history of freshwater bryozoans is likely to allow both long-term persistence and spread of infection within bryozoan populations, precluding the requirement for regular transmission from an alternate host.

Prooxidant and antioxidant properties of human serum ultrafiltrates toward LDL: important role of uric acid

Oxidized LDL is present within atherosclerotic lesions, demonstrating a failure of antioxidant protection. A normal human serum ultrafiltrate of M-r below 500 was prepared as a model for the low M-r components of interstitial fluid, and its effects on LDL oxidation were investigated. The ultrafiltrate (0.3%, v/v) was a potent antioxidant for native LDL, but was a strong prooxidant for mildly oxidized LDL when copper, but not a water-soluble azo initiator, was used to oxidize LDL. Adding a lipid hydroperoxide to native LDL induced the antioxidant to prooxidant switch of the ultrafiltrate. Uric acid was identified, using uricase and add-back experiments, as both the major antioxidant and prooxidant within the ultrafiltrate for LDL. The ultrafiltrate or uric acid rapidly reduced Cu2+ to Cu+. The reduction of Cu2+ to Cu+ may help to explain both the antioxidant and prooxidant effects observed. The decreased concentration of Cu2+ would inhibit tocopherol-mediated peroxidation in native LDL, and the generation of Cu+ would promote the rapid breakdown of lipid hydroperoxides in mildly oxidized LDL into lipid radicals. The net effect of the low M-r serum components would therefore depend on the preexisting levels of lipid hydroperoxides in LDL.jlr These findings may help to explain why LDL oxidation occurs in atherosclerotic lesions in the presence of compounds that are usually considered to be antioxidants.

A new theory of educational change - punctuated equilibrium: the case of the internationalisation of Higher Education institutions

This article argues for a new theoretical paradigm for the analysis of change in educational institutions that is able to deal with such issues as readiness for change, transformational change and the failure of change strategies. Punctuated equilibrium (Tushman and Romanelli, 1985) is a theory which has wide application. It envisages long-term change as being made up of a succession of long periods of relative stability interspersed by brief periods of rapid profound change. In the periods of stability only relatively small incremental changes are possible. The periods of transformational change may be triggered by external or internal influences. A recent study of the long-term process of internationalisation in higher education institutions shows evidence to support the theory: long periods of incremental change, events precipitating profound change and the failure of externally imposed attempts to change. Also, as the theory predicts, changes in collegial organisations are slower and more uncertain than changes in managed organisations.

The development of convergence and accommodation

Aim: To review current literature on the development of convergence and accommodation. The accommodation and vergence systems provide the foundation upon which bifoveal binocular single vision develops. Deviations from their normal development not only are implicated in the aetiology of convergence anomalies, accommodative anomalies and strabismus, but may also be implicated in failure of the emmetropisation process. Method: This review considers the problems of researching the development of accommodation and vergence in infants and how infant research has had to differ from adult methods. It then reviews and discusses the implications of current research into the development of both systems and their linkages. Results: Vergence and accommodation develop rapidly in the first months of life, with accommodation changing from relatively fixed myopic focus in the neonatal period to adult-like responses by 4 months of age. Vergence develops gradually and becomes more accurate after 4 months of age, but has been demonstrated in infants well before the age that binocular disparity detection mechanisms are thought to develop. Hypotheses for this early vergence mechanism are discussed. The relationship between accommodation and vergence shows much more variability in infants than adult literature has found, but this apparent adult/infant difference may be partly attributed to methodological differences rather than maturational change alone. Conclusions: Variability and flexibility characterise infant responses. This variability may enable infants to develop a flexible and robust binocular system for later life. Studies of infant visual cue use may give clues to the aetiology of strabismus and refractive error.

Proceedings of the Rank Forum on Vitamin D

The Rank Forum on Vitamin D was held on 2nd and 3rd July 2009 at the University of Surrey, Guildford, UK. The workshop consisted of a series of scene-setting presentations to address the current issues and challenges concerning vitamin D and health, and included an open discussion focusing on the identification of the concentrations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) (a marker of vitamin D status) that may be regarded as optimal, and the implications this process may have in the setting of future dietary reference values for vitamin D in the UK. The Forum was in agreement with the fact that it is desirable for all of the population to have a serum 25(OH)D concentration above 25 nmol/l, but it discussed some uncertainty about the strength of evidence for the need to aim for substantially higher concentrations (25(OH)D concentrations . 75 nmol/l). Any discussion of ‘optimal’ concentration of serum 25(OH)D needs to define ‘optimal’ with care since it is important to consider the normal distribution of requirements and the vitamin D needs for a wide range of outcomes. Current UK reference values concentrate on the requirements of particular subgroups of the population; this differs from the approaches used in other European countries where a wider range of age groups tend to be covered. With the re-emergence of rickets and the public health burden of low vitamin D status being already apparent, there is a need for urgent action from policy makers and risk managers. The Forum highlighted concerns regarding the failure of implementation of existing strategies in the UK for achieving current vitamin D recommendations.

Resolving the spatial variability of soil N using fractions of soil organic matter

The spatial variability of soil nitrogen (N) mineralisation has not been extensively studied, which limits our capacity to make N fertiliser recommendations. Even less attention has been paid to the scale-dependence of the variation. The objective of this research was to investigate the scale-dependence of variation of mineral N (MinN, N–NO3− plus N–NH4+) at within-field scales. The study was based on the spatial dependence of the labile fractions of SOM, the key fractions for N mineralisation. Soils were sampled in an unbalanced nested design in a 4-ha arable field to examine the distribution of the variation of SOM at 30, 10, 1, and 0.12 m. Organic matter in free and intra-aggregate light fractions (FLF and IALF) was extracted by physical fractionation. The variation occurred entirely within 0.12 m for FLF and at 10 m for IALF. A subsequent sampling on a 5-m grid was undertaken to link the status of the SOM fractions to MinN, which showed uncorrelated spatial dependence. A uniform application of N fertiliser would be suitable in this case. The failure of SOM fractions to identify any spatial dependence of MinN suggests that other soil variables, or crop indicators, should be tested to see if they can identify different N supply areas within the field for a more efficient and environmentally friendly N management.

The audit of regional policy: 1934‐1939

This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of British regional policy during the 1930s. It takes issue with Correlli Barnett, who has argued that regional policy measures introduced from 1945 were already shown to be inefficient by the failure of similar assistance during the 1930s. The evolution of the main 1930s initiatives that influenced post-war policy is discussed and their effectiveness assessed. When account is taken of savings in government welfare payments these initiatives are shown to have been very cost-effective, producing an annual return to the exchequer of around 56%, or more.