Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximate to 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximate to 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximate to 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties of galactooligosaccharides synthesised by alpha-galactosidase from Lactobacillus reuteri

Stirred, pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures were used to evaluate the in vitro utilisation by canine gut microflora of novel alpha-galactooligosaccharides synthesised with an enzyme extract from a canine Lactobacillus reuteri strain. Fructooligosaccharides (FOS), melibiose and raffinose were used as reference carbohydrates for the prebiotic properties of the synthesised oligosaccharide (galactosyl melibiose mixture-GMM). Addition of Lactobacillus acidophilus was used as control for the evaluation of the synbiotic properties of the oligosaccharide with L. reuteri. Populations of predominant gut bacterial groups were monitored over 48 h of batch culture by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, and short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production was measured. GMM showed a higher increase in bifidobacteria and lactobacilli population number and size as well as a higher decrease in clostridia population number and size compared to the commercial prebiotics (FOS, melibiose, raffinose). This prebiotic effect was further increased by the addition of L. reuteri followed by a change in the SCFA production pattern compared to GMM alone or GMM with L. acidophilus. The observed change in SCFA production was in accordance with the fermentation properties of L. reuteri, suggesting that the novel synbiotic had a significant effect on the canine gut microflora fermentation.

Isolation of culturable yeasts from market wines and evaluation of the 5 center dot 8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis for identification purposes

Aims: To test the possibility that wines available in the marketplace may contain culturable yeasts and to evaluate the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis as adequate means for the identification of isolates. Methods and Results: As a case study, typical Greek wines were surveyed. Sequence analysis of the 5.8S-ITS rDNA was tested for its robustness in species or strain identification. Sixteen isolates could be assigned into the species Brettanomyces bruxellensis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Rhodotorula pinicola, whereas four isolates could not be safely identified. B. bruxellensis was the dominant species present in house wines, while non-Saccharomyces sp. were viable in aged wines of high alcohol content. Conclusions: Yeast population depends on postfermentation procedures or storage conditions. Although 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is generally a rapid method to identify wine yeast isolates at the species level, or even below that, it may not be sufficient for some genera. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first report to show that commercial wines may possess diverse and potentially harmful yeast populations. The knowledge of yeasts able to reside in this niche environment is essential towards integrated quality assurance programmes. For selected species, the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is a rapid and accurate means.

In vitro evaluation of the prebiotic activity of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel

The prebiotic effect of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel was studied using pure and mixed cultures of human faecal bacteria. This was compared to the prebiotic effect of fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS). Individual species of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli responded positively to the addition of the bergamot extract, which contained oligosaccharides in the range of three to seven. Fermentation studies were also carried out in controlled pH batch mixed human faecal cultures and changes in gut bacterial groups were monitored over 24 h by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, a culture-independent microbial assessment. Addition of the bergamot oligosaccharides (BOS) resulted in a high increase in the number of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, whereas the clostridial population decreased. A prebiotic index (PI) was calculated for both FOS and BOS after 10 and 24 h incubation. Generally, higher PI scores were obtained after 10 h incubation, with BOS showing a greater value (6.90) than FOS (6.12).

Recalled relationships with parents and perceptions of professional support in mothers of infants treated for cleft lip

This study examined whether individual differences in perception of the quality of professional support available at a time of stress may be associated with security of attachment. We developed a new measure of parents' perceptions of emotional and practical support provided by a wide range of professionals involved in the treatment of infants with cleft lip. it showed good internal reliability and stability over 4 months. Mothers of 102 infants with cleft lip, with or without cleft palate, completed the measure at 2 and 6 months, together with the Parental Bonding Instrument and the General Health Questionnaire. Mean scores reflecting how much they could trust or talk frankly, or share their worst fears, with professionals, and the extent to which they saw them as a source of useful information or practical help, were lower among mothers with recollections of low maternal care in childhood, or high control. This was the case at 2 and 6 months, and there were some indications of an increasing contribution of low maternal care from 2 to 6 months. The associations were not explained by current depression. Further research is needed to clarify the role of attachment processes in parents' responses to serious medical conditions in their children, and into the implications for the way professionals in paediatric services provide support.

Communicating risk of medication side effects: an empirical evaluation of EU recommended terminology

Two experiments compared people's interpretation of verbal and numerical descriptions of the risk of medication side effects occurring. The verbal descriptors were selected from those recommended for use by the European Union (very common, common, uncommon, rare, very rare). Both experiments used a controlled empirical methodology, in which nearly 500 members of the general population were presented with a fictitious (but realistic) scenario about visiting the doctor and being prescribed medication, together with information about the medicine's side effects and their probability of occurrence. Experiment 1 found that, in all three age groups tested (18 - 40, 41 - 60 and over 60), participants given a verbal descriptor (very common) estimated side effect risk to be considerably higher than those given a comparable numerical description. Furthermore, the differences in interpretation were reflected in their judgements of side effect severity, risk to health, and intention to comply. Experiment 2 confirmed these findings using two different verbal descriptors (common and rare) and in scenarios which described either relatively severe or relatively mild side effects. Strikingly, only 7 out of 180 participants in this study gave a probability estimate which fell within the EU assigned numerical range. Thus, large scale use of the descriptors could have serious negative consequences for individual and public health. We therefore recommend that the EU and National authorities suspend their recommendations regarding these descriptors until a more substantial evidence base is available to support their appropriate use.

the implication of social cognition for experimental economics From the issue entitled "Special issue on Experimental economics and the social embedding of economic behavior and cognition"

Can human social cognitive processes and social motives be grasped by the methods of experimental economics? Experimental studies of strategic cognition and social preferences contribute to our understanding of the social aspects of economic decisions making. Yet, papers in this issue argue that the social aspects of decision-making introduce several difficulties for interpreting the results of economic experiments. In particular, the laboratory is itself a social context, and in many respects a rather distinctive one, which raises questions of external validity.

Position paper on the future of social networking

Social networking mediated by web sites is a relatively new phenomenon and as with all technological innovations there continues to be a period of both technical and social adjustment to fit the services in with people’s behaviours, and for people to adjust their practices in the light of the affordances provided by the technology. Social networking benefits strongly from large scale availability. Users gain greater benefit from social networking services when more of their friends are using them.This applies in social terms, but also in eLearning and professional networks. The network effect provides one explanation for the popularity of internet based social networking sites (SNS) because the number of connections between people which can be maintained by using them is greatly increased in comparison to the networks available before the internet. The ability of users to determine how much they trust information available to them from contacts within their social network is important in almost all modes of use. As sources of information on a range of topics from academic to shopping advice, the level of trust which a user can put in other nodes is a key aspect of the utility of the system.

Evaluation of a Lagrangian box model using field measurements from EASE (Eastern Atlantic Summer Experiment) 1996

The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT), a Lagrangian chemistry model, has been evaluated using atmospheric chemical measurements collected during the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE '96). This field campaign was part of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's (NERC) Atmospheric Chemistry Studies in the Oceanic Environment (ACSOE) programme, conducted at Mace Head, Republic of Ireland, during July and August 1996. The model includes a description of gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, and simple parameterisations for surface deposition, mixing from the free troposphere and emissions. The model generally compares well with the measurements and is used to study the production and loss of O3 under a variety of conditions. The mean difference between the hourly O3 concentrations calculated by the model and those measured is 0.6 ppbv with a standard deviation of 8.7 ppbv. Three specific air-flow regimes were identified during the campaign – westerly, anticyclonic (easterly) and south westerly. The westerly flow is typical of background conditions for Mace Head. However, on some occasions there was evidence of long-range transport of pollutants from North America. In periods of anticyclonic flow, air parcels had collected emissions of NOx and VOCs immediately before arriving at Mace Head, leading to O3 production. The level of calculated O3 depends critically on the precise details of the trajectory, and hence on the emissions into the air parcel. In several periods of south westerly flow, low concentrations of O3 were measured which were consistent with deposition and photochemical destruction inside the tropical marine boundary layer.

Operator performance evaluation of controlled depth of field in a stereographically displayed virtual environment

Retinal blurring resulting from the human eye's depth of focus has been shown to assist visual perception. Infinite focal depth within stereoscopically displayed virtual environments may cause undesirable effects, for instance, objects positioned at a distance in front of or behind the observer's fixation point will be perceived in sharp focus with large disparities thereby causing diplopia. Although published research on incorporation of synthetically generated Depth of Field (DoF) suggests that this might act as an enhancement to perceived image quality, no quantitative testimonies of perceptional performance gains exist. This may be due to the difficulty of dynamic generation of synthetic DoF where focal distance is actively linked to fixation distance. In this paper, such a system is described. A desktop stereographic display is used to project a virtual scene in which synthetically generated DoF is actively controlled from vergence-derived distance. A performance evaluation experiment on this system which involved subjects carrying out observations in a spatially complex virtual environment was undertaken. The virtual environment consisted of components interconnected by pipes on a distractive background. The subject was tasked with making an observation based on the connectivity of the components. The effects of focal depth variation in static and actively controlled focal distance conditions were investigated. The results and analysis are presented which show that performance gains may be achieved by addition of synthetic DoF. The merits of the application of synthetic DoF are discussed.

Evaluation of the environmental specificity of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of probe (PSE1284)-positive cells extracted from rhizosphere soil

We explicitly tested for the first time the ‘environmental specificity’ of traditional 16S rRNAtargeted fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) through comparison of the bacterial diversity actually targeted in the environment with the diversity that should be exactly targeted (i.e. without mismatches) according to in silico analysis. To do this, we exploited advances in modern Flow Cytometry that enabled improved detection and therefore sorting of sub-micron-sized particles and used probe PSE1284 (designed to target Pseudomonads) applied to Lolium perenne rhizosphere soil as our test system. The 6-carboxyfluorescein (6-FAM)-PSE1284-hybridised population, defined as displaying enhanced green fluorescence in Flow Cytometry, represented 3.51±1.28% of the total detected population when corrected using a nonsense (NON-EUB338) probe control. Analysis of 16S rRNA gene libraries constructed from Fluorescence Activated Cell Sorted (FACS) -recovered fluorescent populations (n=3), revealed that 98.5% (Pseudomonas spp. comprised 68.7% and Burkholderia spp. 29.8%) of the total sorted population was specifically targeted as evidenced by the homology of the 16S rRNA sequences to the probe sequence. In silico evaluation of probe PSE1284 with the use of RDP-10 probeMatch justified the existence of Burkholderia spp. among the sorted cells. The lack of novelty in Pseudomonas spp. sequences uncovered was notable, probably reflecting the well-studied nature of this functionally important genus. To judge the diversity recorded within the FACS-sorted population, rarefaction and DGGE analysis were used to evaluate, respectively, the proportion of Pseudomonas diversity uncovered by the sequencing effort and the representativeness of the Nycodenz® method for the extraction of bacterial cells from soil.

Emotional well-being and adjustment to vision loss in later life: a meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

Purpose: To review perceived emotional well-being in older people with visual impairment and perceived factors that inhibit/facilitate psychosocial adjustment to vision loss. Method: The databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched for studies published from January 1980 to December 2010, which recruited older people with irreversible vision loss, and used qualitative methods for both data collection and analysis. Results sections of the papers were synthesised using a thematic-style analysis to identify the emergent and dominant themes. Results: Seventeen qualitative papers were included in the review, and five main themes emerged from the synthesis: 1) the trauma of an ophthalmic diagnosis, 2) impact of vision loss on daily life, 3) negative impact of visual impairment on psychosocial well-being, 4) factors that inhibit social well-being, and 5) factors that facilitate psychological well-being. We found the response shift model useful for explaining our synthesis. Conclusions: Acquired visual impairment can have a significant impact on older people's well-being and make psychosocial adjustment to the condition a major challenge. Acceptance of the condition and a positive attitude facilitate successful psychosocial adjustment to vision loss as well as social support from family, friends and peers who have successfully adjusted to the condition. [Box: see text].