Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.

The state of veterinary epidemiology and economics

Recent developments in the fields of veterinary epidemiology and economics are critically reviewed and assessed. The impacts of recent technological developments in diagnosis, genetic characterisation, data processing and statistical analysis are evaluated. It is concluded that the acquisition and availability of data remains the principal constraint to the application of available techniques in veterinary epidemiology and economics, especially at population level. As more commercial producers use computerised management systems, the availability of data for analysis within herds is improving. However, consistency of recording and diagnosis remains problematic. Recent trends to the development of national livestock databases intended to provide reassurance to consumers of the safety and traceability of livestock products are potentially valuable sources of data that could lead to much more effective application of veterinary epidemiology and economics. These opportunities will be greatly enhanced if data from different sources, such as movement recording, official animal health programmes, quality assurance schemes, production recording and breed societies can be integrated. However, in order to realise such integrated databases, it will be necessary to provide absolute control of user access to guarantee data security and confidentiality. The potential applications of integrated livestock databases in analysis, modelling, decision-support, and providing management information for veterinary services and livestock producers are discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Structural and equilibrium studies on mixed ligand complexes of Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) with N-(2-benzimidazolyl)methyliminodiacetic acid and typical N,N donor ligands

Mixed ligand complexes: [Co(L)(bipy)] (.) 3H(2)O (1), [Ni(L)(phen)] (.) H2O (2), [Cu(L)(phen)] (.) 3H(2)O (3) and [Zn(L)(bipy)] (.) 3H(2)O (4), where L2- = two -COOH deprotonated dianion of N-(2-benzimidazolyl)methyliminodiacetic acid (H(2)bzimida, hereafter, H,L), bipy = 2,2' bipyridine and phen = 1,10-phenanthroline have been isolated and characterized by elemental analysis, spectral and magnetic measurements and thermal studies. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies show octahedral geometry for 1, 2 and 4 and square pyramidal geometry for 3. Equilibrium studies in aqueous solution (ionic strength I = 10(-1) mol dm(-3) (NaNO3), at 25 +/- 1 degrees C) using different molar proportions of M(II):H2L:B, where M = Co, Ni, Cu and Zn and B = phen, bipy and en (ethylene diamine), however, provides evidence of formation of mononuclear and binuclear binary and mixed ligand complexes: M(L), M(H-1L)(-), M(B)(2+), M(L)(B), M(H-1L)(B)(-), M-2(H-1L)(OH), (B)M(H-1L)M(B)(+), where H-1L3- represents two -COOH and the benzimidazole NI-H deprotonated quadridentate (O-, N, O-, N), or, quinquedentate (O-, N, O-, N, N-) function of the coordinated ligand H,L. Binuclear mixed ligand complex formation equilibria: M(L)(B) + M(B)(2+) = (B)M(H-1L)M(B)(+) + H+ is favoured with higher pi-acidity of the B ligands. For Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II), these equilibria are accompanied by blue shift of the electronic absorption maxima of M(II) ions, as a negatively charged bridging benzimidazolate moiety provides stronger ligand field than a neutral one. Solution stability of the mixed ligand complexes are in the expected order: Co(II) < Ni(II) < Cu(II) > Zn(II). The Delta logK(M) values are less negetive than their statistical values, indicating favoured formation of the mixed ligand complexes over the binary ones. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Equilibrium studies on mixed ligand complex formation of Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) with N-(2-hydroxybenzyl)-L-histidine (H(2)hb-L-his) and typical N,N donor ligands: Crystal structure of [Ni(hb-L-his)(bipyridine)]center dot H2O complex

Equilibrium study on complex formation of Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II), hereafter M(II), with the quadridentate (O-, N, O-, N) donor ligand, N-(2-hydroxybenzyl)-L-histidine (H(2)hb-L-his, hereafter H2L), in the absence and in the presence of typical (N, N) donor bidentate ligands, 1,10 phenanthroline(phen), 2, 2'-bipyridine(bipy), ethylenediamine(en), hereafter B, in aqueous solution at 25 +/- 1 degrees C was done at a fixed ionic strength, I = 0.1 mol dm(-3) (NaNO3) by combined pH-metric, UV-Vis and EPR measurements provide evidence for the formation of mononuclear and dinuclear binary and mixed ligand complexes of the types: M(L), M(L)(2)(2-), M-2(L)(2+), M-2(H-1L)(+), M(L)(B), (B)M(H-1L)M(B)(+). The imidazole moiety of the ligand is found to act as a bridging bidentate ligand in the dinuclear M-2(L)(2+), M-2(H-1L)(+) and (B)M(H-1L)M(B)(+) complexes, using its N-3 atom and N1-H deprotonated moiety. Stability constants of the complexes provide evidence of discrimination of Cu(II) from the other M(II) ions by this ligand. Solid complexes: [Ni(L)(H2O)(2)] (1), [Cu(L)(H2O)] (2), and [Ni(L)(bipy)] (.) H2O (3) have been isolated and characterized by various physicochemical studies. Single crystal X-ray diffraction of the ternary complex, 3, shows an octahedral [(O-,N,N,O-)(N,N)] geometry with extensive pi-pi stacking of the aromatic rings and H-bonding with imidazole (N1-H), secondary amino N-atom, the lattice H2O molecule, and the carboxylate and phenolate O-atoms. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.