Connectivity recovery in epidemic membership protocols

Epidemic protocols are a bio-inspired communication and computation paradigm for extreme-scale network system based on randomized communication. The protocols rely on a membership service to build decentralized and random overlay topologies. In a weakly connected overlay topology, a naive mechanism of membership protocols can break the connectivity, thus impairing the accuracy of the application. This work investigates the factors in membership protocols that cause the loss of global connectivity and introduces the first topology connectivity recovery mechanism. The mechanism is integrated into the Expander Membership Protocol, which is then evaluated against other membership protocols. The analysis shows that the proposed connectivity recovery mechanism is effective in preserving topology connectivity and also helps to improve the application performance in terms of convergence speed.

Emotional interactions and an ethic of care: caring relations in families affected by HIV and AIDS

In the context of global processes of economic restructuring, the HIV and AIDS epidemic and socio-cultural constructions of care, many women and young people in low-income households have been drawn into caring roles within the family. Drawing on the literature on an ethics of care, emotional geographies and embodiment, this paper examines the emotional dynamics of the caring process in families affected by HIV and AIDS. Based on the perspectives of both ‘caregivers’ and ‘care-receivers’ from research undertaken in Namibia, Tanzania and the UK, we examine the everyday practices of care that women and young people are engaged in and explore how emotions are performed and managed in caring relationships. Our research suggests caregivers play a crucial role in providing emotional support and reassurance to people with HIV, which in turn often affects caregivers' emotional and physical wellbeing. Within environments where emotional expression is restricted and HIV is heavily stigmatised, caregivers and care-receivers seek to regulate their emotions in order to protect family members from the emotional impacts of a chronic, life-limiting illness. However, whilst caregiving and receiving may lead to close emotional connections and a high level of responsiveness, the intensity of intimate caring relationships, isolation and lack of access to adequate resources can cause tensions and contradictory feelings that may be difficult to manage. These conflicts can severely constrain carers' ability to provide the ‘good care’ that integrates the key ethical phases in Tronto's (1993) ideal of the caring process.

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics.

Young caregiving and HIV in the UK: caring relationships and mobilities in African migrant families

Recent research in Sub-Saharan Africa has revealed the importance of children’s caring roles in families affected by HIV and AIDS. However, few studies have explored young caregiving in the context of HIV in the UK, where recently arrived African migrant and refugee families are adversely affected by the global epidemic. This paper explores young people’s socio-spatial experiences of caring for a parent with HIV, based on qualitative research with 37 respondents in London and other urban areas in England. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with young people with caring responsibilities and mothers with HIV, who were predominantly African migrants, as well as with service providers. Drawing on their perspectives, the paper discusses the ways that young people and mothers negotiate the boundaries of young people’s care work within and beyond homespace, according to norms of age, gender, generational relations and cultural constructions of childhood. Despite close attachments within the family, the emotional effects of living with a highly stigmatised life-limiting illness, pressures associated with insecure immigration status, transnational migration and low income undermined African mothers’ and young people’s sense of security and belonging to homespace. These factors also restricted their mobility and social participation in school/college and neighbourhood spaces. While young people and mothers valued supportive safe spaces within the community, the stigma surrounding HIV significantly affected their ability to seek support. The article identifies security, privacy, independence and social mobility as key dimensions of African young people’s and mothers’ imagined futures of ‘home’ and ‘family’.

Relationship between incidence and severity of cashew gummosis in semiarid north-eastern Brazil

The incidence-severity relationship for cashew gummosis, caused by Lasiodiplodia theobromae, was studied to determine the feasibility of using disease incidence to estimate indirectly disease severity in order to establish the potential damage caused by this disease in semiarid north-eastern Brazil. Epidemics were monitored in two cashew orchards, from 1995 to 1998 in an experimental field composed of 28 dwarf clones, and from 2000 to 2002 in a commercial orchard of a single clone. The two sites were located 10 km from each other. Logarithmic transformation achieved the best linear adjustment of incidence and severity data as determined by coefficients of determination for place, age and pooled data. A very high correlation between incidence and severity was found in both fields, with different disease pressures, different cashew genotypes, different ages and at several epidemic stages. Thus, the easily assessed gummosis incidence could be used to estimate gummosis severity levels.

An exploration of the drivers to bio-security collective action among a sample of UK cattle and sheep farmers

At present, collective action regarding bio-security among UK cattle and sheep farmers is rare. Despite the occurrence of catastrophic livestock diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and foot and mouth disease (FMD), within recent decades, there are few national or local farmer-led animal health schemes. To explore the reasons for this apparent lack of interest, we utilised a socio-psychological approach to disaggregate the cognitive, emotive and contextual factors driving bio-security behaviour among cattle and sheep farmers in the United Kingdom (UK). In total, we interviewed 121 farmers in South-West England and Wales. The main analytical tools included a content, cluster and logistic regression analysis. The results of the content analysis illustrated apparent 'dissonance' between bio-security attitudes and behaviour.(1) Despite the heavy toll animal disease has taken on the agricultural economy, most study participants were dismissive of the many measures associated with bio-security. Justification for this lack of interest was largely framed in relation to the collective attribution or blame for the disease threats themselves. Indeed, epidemic diseases were largely related to external actors and agents. Reasons for outbreaks included inadequate border control, in tandem with ineffective policies and regulations. Conversely, endemic livestock disease was viewed as a problem for 'bad' farmers and not an issue for those individuals who managed their stock well. As such, there was little utility in forming groups to address what was largely perceived as an individual problem. Further, we found that attitudes toward bio-security did not appear to be influenced by any particular source of information per se. While strong negative attitudes were found toward specific sources of bio-security information, e.g. government leaflets, these appear to simply reflect widely held beliefs. In relation to actual bio-security behaviours, the logistic regression analysis revealed no significant difference between in-scheme and out of scheme farmers. We concluded that in order to support collective action with regard to bio-security, messages need to be reframed and delivered from a neutral source. Efforts to support group formation must also recognise and address the issues relating to perceptions of social connectedness among the communities involved. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-hemagglutinating flaviviruses: molecular mechanisms for the emergence of new strains via adaptation to European ticks

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) causes human epidemics across Eurasia. Clinical manifestations range from inapparent infections and fevers to fatal encephalitis but the factors that determine disease severity are currently undefined. TBEV is characteristically a hemagglutinating (HA) virus; the ability to agglutinate erythrocytes tentatively reflects virion receptor/fusion activity. However, for the past few years many atypical HA-deficient strains have been isolated from patients and also from the natural European host tick, Ixodes persulcatus. By analysing the sequences of HA-deficient strains we have identified 3 unique amino acid substitutions (D67G, E122G or D277A) in the envelope protein, each of which increases the net charge and hydrophobicity of the virion surface. Therefore, we genetically engineered virus mutants each containing one of these 3 substitutions; they all exhibited HA-deficiency. Unexpectedly, each genetically modified non-HA virus demonstrated increased TBEV reproduction in feeding Ixodes ricinus, not the recognised tick host for these strains. Moreover, virus transmission efficiency between infected and uninfected ticks co-feeding on mice was also intensified by each substitution. Retrospectively, the mutation D67G was identified in viruses isolated from patients with encephalitis. We propose that the emergence of atypical Siberian HA-deficient TBEV strains in Europe is linked to their molecular adaptation to local ticks. This process appears to be driven by the selection of single mutations that change the virion surface thus enhancing receptor/fusion function essential for TBEV entry into the unfamiliar tick species. As the consequence of this adaptive mutagenesis, some of these mutations also appear to enhance the ability of TBEV to cross the human blood-brain barrier, a likely explanation for fatal encephalitis. Future research will reveal if these emerging Siberian TBEV strains continue to disperse westwards across Europe by adaptation to the indigenous tick species and if they are associated with severe forms of TBE.

Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

Genetic characterization of tick-borne flaviviruses: new insights into evolution, pathogenetic determinants and taxonomy

Here, we analyze the complete coding sequences of all recognized tick-borne flavivirus species, including Gadgets Gully, Royal Farm and Karshi virus, seabird-associated flaviviruses, Kadam virus and previously uncharacterized isolates of Kyasanur Forest disease virus and Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus. Significant taxonomic improvements are proposed, e.g. the identification of three major groups (mammalian, seabird and Kadam tick-borne flavivirus groups), the creation of a new species (Karshi virus) and the assignment of Tick-borne encephalitis and Louping ill viruses to a unique species (Tick-borne encephalitis virus) including four viral types (i.e. Western Tick-borne encephalitis virus, Eastern Tick-borne encephalitis virus, Turkish sheep Tick-borne encephalitis virus and Louping ill Tick-borne encephalitis virus). The analyses also suggest a complex relationship between viruses infecting birds and those infecting mammals. Ticks that feed on both categories of vertebrates may constitute the evolutionary bridge between the three distinct identified lineages.

Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

Commentary on 'Prebiotics, immune function, infection and inflammation: a review of the evidence'

There is a growing awareness that the gut microbiota and an appropriately functioning immune system play an important role in maintaining human health. Recent population statistics have highlighted some worrying trends, specifically that there is a growing burden of immunological disease in Western populations, that Western populations are ageing, and that obesity, with its strong inflammatory component, is reaching epidemic proportions.

Dietary-based gut flora modulation against Clostridium difficile onset

Clostridium difficile infection is a frequent complication of antibiotic therapy in hospitalised patients, which today is attracting more attention than ever and has led to its classification as a 'superbug'. Disruption of the composition of the intestinal microflora following antibiotic treatment is an important prerequisite for overgrowth of C. difficile and the subsequent development of an infection. Treatment options for antibiotic-associated diarrhoea and C. difficile-induced colitis include administration of specific antibiotics (e.g. vancomycin), which often leads to high relapse rates. More importantly, both the rate and severity of C. difficile-associated diseases are increasing, with new epidemic strains of C. difficile often implicated. For the prevention and treatment of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea and C. difficile infection, several probiotic bacteria such as selected strains of lactobacilli (especially Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG), Bifidobacterium longum, and Enterococcus faecium and the non-pathogenic yeast Saccharomyces boulardii have been used. Controlled trials indicate a benefit of S. boulardii and L. rhamnosus GG as therapeutic agents when used as adjuncts to antibiotics. However, the need for more well designed controlled trials with probiotics is explicit.

Antibacterials and modulators of bacterial resistance from the immature cones of Chamaecyparis lawsoniana

As part of an on-going project to characterize compounds from immature conifer cones with antibacterial or modulatory activity against multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of Staphylococcus aureus, eight compounds were isolated from the cones of Chatnaecyparis lawsoniana. The active compounds were mainly diterpenes, with minimum inhibitory concentrations ranging from 4 to 128 mu g/ml against MDR effluxing S. aureus strains and two epidemic methicillin-resistant (EMRSA) clinical isolates. The compounds extracted were the diterpenes ferruginol, pisiferol and its epimer 5-epipisiferol, formosanoxide, trans-communic acid and torulosal, the sesquiterpene oplopanonyl acetate and the germacrane 4 beta-hydroxygermacra-1(10)-5-diene. Some of these compounds also exhibited modulatory activity in potentiating antibiotic activity against effluxing strains and ferruginol, used at a sub-inhibitory concentration, resulted in an 80-fold potentiation of oxacillin activity against strain EMRSA-15. An efflux inhibition assay using an S. aureus strain possessing the MDR NorA efflux pump resulted in 40% inhibition of ethidium bromide efflux at 10 mu M ferruginol (2.86 mu g/ml). We report the H-1 and C-13 NMR data for the cis A/B ring junction epimer of pisiferol which we have named 5-epipisiferol. We also unambiguously assign all H-1 and C-13 NMR resonances for trans-communic acid. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.