Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model

A two-sector Ramsey-type model of growth is developed to investigate the relationship between agricultural productivity and economy-wide growth. The framework takes into account the peculiarities of agriculture both in production ( reliance on a fixed natural resource base) and in consumption (life-sustaining role and low income elasticity of food demand). The transitional dynamics of the model establish that when preferences respect Engel's law, the level and growth rate of agricultural productivity influence the speed of capital accumulation. A calibration exercise shows that a small difference in agricultural productivity has drastic implications for the rate and pattern of growth of the economy. Hence, low agricultural productivity can form a bottleneck limiting growth, because high food prices result in a low saving rate.

Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Apical leaf necrosis and leaf nitrogen dynamics in diseased leaves: a model study

Apical leaf necrosis is a physiological process related to nitrogen (N) dynamics in the leaf. Pathogens use leaf nutrients and can thus accelerate this physiological apical necrosis. This process differs from necrosis occurring around pathogen lesions (lesion-induced necrosis), which is a direct result of the interaction between pathogen hyphae and leaf cells. This paper primarily concentrates on apical necrosis, only incorporating lesion-induced necrosis by necessity. The relationship between pathogen dynamics and physiological apical leaf necrosis is modelled through leaf nitrogen dynamics. The specific case of Puccinia triticina infections on Triticum aestivum flag leaves is studied. In the model, conversion of indirectly available N in the form of, for example, leaf cell proteins (N-2(t)) into directly available N (N-1(t), i.e. the form of N that can directly be used by either pathogen or plant sinks) results in apical necrosis. The model reproduces observed trends of disease severity, apical necrosis and green leaf area (GLA) and leaf N dynamics of uninfected and infected leaves. Decreasing the initial amount of directly available N results in earlier necrosis onset and longer necrosis duration. Decreasing the initial amount of indirectly available N, has no effect on necrosis onset and shortens necrosis duration. The model could be used to develop hypotheses on how the disease-GLA relation affects yield loss, which can be tested experimentally. Upon incorporation into crop simulation models, the model might provide a tool to more accurately estimate crop yield and effects of disease management strategies in crops sensitive to fungal pathogens.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model

1.There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6.Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Measuring toughness and the cohesive stress-displacement relationship by the essential work of fracture concept

The complete fracture behaviour of ductile double edge notched tension (DENT) specimen is analysed with an approximate model, which is then used to discuss the essential work of fracture (EWF) concept. The model results are compared with the experimental results for an aluminium alloy 6082-O. The restrictions on the ligament size for valid application of the EWF method are discussed with the aid of the model. The model is used to suggest an improved method of obtaining the cohesive stress-displacement relationship for the fracture process zone (FPZ).

Acrylamide and pyrazine formation in model systems containing asparagine

The effect of different sugars and glyoxal on the formation of acrylamide in low-moisture starch-based model systems was studied, and kinetic data were obtained. Glucose was more effective than fructose, tagatose, or maltose in acrylamide formation, whereas the importance of glyoxal as a key sugar fragmentation intermediate was confirmed. Glyoxal formation was greater in model systems containing asparagine and glucose rather than fructose. A solid phase microextraction GC-MS method was employed to determine quantitatively the formation of pyrazines in model reaction systems. Substituted pyrazine formation was more evident in model systems containing fructose; however, the unsubstituted homologue, which was the only pyrazine identified in the headspace of glyoxal-asparagine systems, was formed at higher yields when aldoses were used as the reducing sugar. Highly significant correlations were obtained for the relationship between pyrazine and acrylamide formation. The importance of the tautomerization of the asparagine-carbonyl decarboxylated Schiff base in the relative yields of pyrazines and acrylamide is discussed.

Effect of fecal water on an in vitro model of colonic mucosal barrier function

Fecal water (FW) has been shown to exert, in cultured cells, cytotoxic and genotoxic effects that have implications for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We have investigated a further biological activity of FW, namely, the ability to affect gap junctions in CACO2 cell monolayers as an index of mucosal barrier function, which is known to be disrupted in cancer. FW samples fi-om healthy, free-living, European subjects that were divided into two broad age groups, adult (40 +/- 9.7 yr; n = 53) and elderly (76 +/- 7.5 yr; n = 55) were tested for effects on gap junction using the transepithelial resistance (TER) assay. Overall, treatment of CACO2 cells with FW samples fi-om adults increased TER (+ 4 %), whereas FW from elderly subjects decreased TER (-5%); the difference between the two groups was significant (P < 0.05). We also measured several components of FW potentially associated with modulation of TER, namely, short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonia. SCFAs (propionic, acetic, and n-butyric) were significantly lower in the elderly population (-30%, -35%, and -21%, respectively, all P pound 0.01). We consider that FW modulation of in vitro epithelial barrier function is a potentially useful noninvasive biomarker, but it requires further validation to establish its relationship to CRC risk.

Measurement of acrylamide and its precursors in potato, wheat, and rye model systems

The relationship between acrylamide and its precursors, namely, free asparagine and reducing sugars, was studied in cakes made from potato flake, wholemeal wheat, and wholemeal rye, cooked at 180 degreesC, from 5 to 60 min. Between 5 and 20 min, major losses of asparagine, water, and total reducing sugars were accompanied by large increases in acrylamide, which maximized in all three products between 25 and 30 min, followed by a slow linear reduction. Acrylamide formation did not occur to a large degree until the moisture contents of the cakes fell below 5%. Linear relationships were observed for acrylamide formation with the residual levels of asparagine and reducing sugars for all three food materials.

Revised QUICKI provides a strong surrogate estimate of insulin sensitivity when compared with the minimal model

OBJECTIVE: To compare insulin sensitivity (Si) from a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (FSIGT) and subsequent minimal model analyses with surrogate measures of insulin sensitivity and resistance and to compare features of the metabolic syndrome between Caucasians and Indian Asians living in the UK. SUBJECTS: In all, 27 healthy male volunteers (14 UK Caucasians and 13 UK Indian Asians), with a mean age of 51.2 +/- 1.5 y, BMI of 25.8 +/- 0.6 kg/m(2) and Si of 2.85 +/- 0.37. MEASUREMENTS: Si was determined from an FSIGT with subsequent minimal model analysis. The concentrations of insulin, glucose and nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) were analysed in fasting plasma and used to calculate surrogate measure of insulin sensitivity (quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), revised QUICKI) and resistance (homeostasis for insulin resistance (HOMA IR), fasting insulin resistance index (FIRI), Bennetts index, fasting insulin, insulin-to-glucose ratio). Plasma concentrations of triacylglycerol (TAG), total cholesterol, high density cholesterol, (HDL-C) and low density cholesterol, (LDL-C) were also measured in the fasted state. Anthropometric measurements were conducted to determine body-fat distribution. RESULTS: Correlation analysis identified the strongest relationship between Si and the revised QUICKI (r = 0.67; P = 0.000). Significant associations were also observed between Si and QUICKI (r = 0.51; P = 0.007), HOMA IR (r = -0.50; P = 0.009), FIRI and fasting insulin. The Indian Asian group had lower HDL-C (P = 0.001), a higher waist-hip ratio (P = 0.01) and were significantly less insulin sensitive (Si) than the Caucasian group (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: The revised QUICKI demonstrated a statistically strong relationship with the minimal model. However, it was unable to differentiate between insulin-sensitive and -resistant groups in this study. Future larger studies in population groups with varying degrees of insulin sensitivity are recommended to investigate the general applicability of the revised QUICKI surrogate technique.

The relationship between absolute and proportion scores of serial order memory: simulation predictions and empirical data

The capability of a feature model of immediate memory (Nairne, 1990; Neath, 2000) to predict and account for a relationship between absolute and proportion scoring of immediate serial recall when memory load is varied (the list-length effect, LLE) is examined. The model correctly predicts the novel finding of an LLE in immediate serial order memory similar to that observed with free recall and previously assumed to be attributable to the long-term memory component of that procedure (Glanzer, 1972). The usefulness of formal models as predictive tools and the continuity between short-term serial order and longer term item memory are considered.

A conceptual model for group support systems in local councils

This paper proposes a conceptual model of a context-aware group support system (GSS) to assist local council employees to perform collaborative tasks in conjunction with inter- and intra-organisational stakeholders. Most discussions about e-government focus on the use of ICT to improve the relationship between government and citizen, not on the relationship between government and employees. This paper seeks to expose the unique culture of UK local councils and to show how a GSS could support local government employer and employee needs.

Relationship between åström control and the kalman linear regulator — Caines revisited

The relationship between minimum variance and minimum expected quadratic loss feedback controllers for linear univariate discrete-time stochastic systems is reviewed by taking the approach used by Caines. It is shown how the two methods can be regarded as providing identical control actions as long as a noise-free measurement state-space model is employed.