A comparative evaluation of functions for the analysis of growth in male broilers

Data from six studies with male broilers fed diets covering a wide range of energy and protein were used in the current two analyses. In the first analysis, five models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine metabolizable energy intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of metabolizable energy intake for producing gain. In addition to the straight line, two types of functional form were used. They were forms describing (i) diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and (ii) sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection (Gompertz and logistic). These models determined metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance to be in the range 437-573 kJ/kg of body weight/day depending on the model. The values determined for average net energy requirement for body weight gain varied from 7(.)9 to 11(.)2 kJ/g of body weight. These values show good agreement with previous studies. In the second analysis, three types of function were assessed as candidates for describing the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake. The functions used were: (a) monomolecular (diminishing returns behaviour), (b) Gompertz (smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection) and (c) Lopez, France and Richards (diminishing returns and sigmoidal behaviour with a variable point of inflection). The results of this analysis demonstrated that equations capable of mimicking the law of diminishing returns describe accurately the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake in broilers.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

A cost-benefit analysis of culling badgers to control bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic problem. The incidence of TB in cattle herds has steadily risen in the UK, and badgers are strongly implicated in spreading disease. Since the mid-1970s the UK government has adopted a number of badger culling strategies to attempt to reduce infection in cattle. In this report, an established model has been used to simulate TB in badgers, transmission to cattle, and control by badger culling. Costs were supplied by the UK Government's Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for badger trapping and gassing. Regardless of culling intensity or area simulated, an overall reduction in the herd breakdown rate was seen. With a high culling efficacy and no social perturbation, the mean Net Present Value of a few simulated culling strategies in an "ideal world" was positive, meaning the economic benefits outweighed the costs. Further work is required before these results could be considered definitive, as it is necessary to evaluate uncertainties and simulate less than perfect conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of feeding strategies for small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming

A limitation of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico is that traditional feeding strategies are less effective when nutrient availability varies through the year. In the present work, a linear programming (LP) model that maximizes income over feed cost was developed, and used to evaluate two strategies: the traditional one used by the small-scale dairy producers in Michoacan State, based on fresh lucerne, maize grain and maize straw; and an alternative strategy proposed by the LIP model, based on ryegrass hay, maize silage and maize grain. Biological and economic efficiency for both strategies were evaluated. Results obtained with the traditional strategy agree with previously published work. The alternative strategy did not improve upon the performance of the traditional strategy because of low metabolizable protein content of the maize silage considered by the model. However, the Study recommends improvement of forage quality to increase the efficiency of small-scale dairy systems, rather than looking for concentrate supplementation.

Urban mammals: what does the future hold? An analysis of the factors affecting patterns of use of residential gardens in Great Britain

1Urban areas are predicted to grow significantly in the foreseeable future because of increasing human population growth. Predicting the impact of urban development and expansion on mammal populations is of considerable interest due to possible effects on biodiversity and human-wildlife conflict. 2The British government has recently announced a substantial housing programme to meet the demands of its growing population and changing socio-economic profile. This is likely to result in the construction of high-density, low-cost housing with small residential gardens. To assess the potential effects of this programme, we analysed the factors affecting the current pattern of use of residential gardens by a range of mammal species using a questionnaire distributed in wildlife and gardening magazines and via The Mammal Society. 3Twenty-two species/species groups were recorded. However, the pattern of garden use by individual species was limited, with only six species/species groups (bats, red fox Vulpes vulpes, grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis, hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus, mice, voles) recorded as frequent visitors to > 20% of gardens in the survey. 4There was a high degree of association between the variables recorded in the study, such that it was difficult to quantify the effects of individual variables. However, all species/species groups appeared to be negatively affected by the increased fragmentation and reduced proximity of natural and semi-natural habitats, decreasing garden size and garden structure, but to differing degrees. Patterns of garden use were most clearly affected by house location (city, town, village, rural), with garden use declining with increasing urbanization for the majority of species/species groups, except red foxes and grey squirrels. Increasing urbanization is likely to be related to a wide range of interrelated factors, any or all of which may affect a range of mammal species. 5Overall, the probable effects of the planned housing development programme in Britain are not likely to be beneficial to mammal populations, although the pattern of use examined in this study may represent patterns of habitat selection by species rather than differences in distribution or abundance. Consequently, additional data are required on the factors affecting the density of species within urban environments.

Assembly rules for protein networks derived from phylogenetic-statistical analysis of whole genomes

Background: We report an analysis of a protein network of functionally linked proteins, identified from a phylogenetic statistical analysis of complete eukaryotic genomes. Phylogenetic methods identify pairs of proteins that co-evolve on a phylogenetic tree, and have been shown to have a high probability of correctly identifying known functional links. Results: The eukaryotic correlated evolution network we derive displays the familiar power law scaling of connectivity. We introduce the use of explicit phylogenetic methods to reconstruct the ancestral presence or absence of proteins at the interior nodes of a phylogeny of eukaryote species. We find that the connectivity distribution of proteins at the point they arise on the tree and join the network follows a power law, as does the connectivity distribution of proteins at the time they are lost from the network. Proteins resident in the network acquire connections over time, but we find no evidence that 'preferential attachment' - the phenomenon of newly acquired connections in the network being more likely to be made to proteins with large numbers of connections - influences the network structure. We derive a 'variable rate of attachment' model in which proteins vary in their propensity to form network interactions independently of how many connections they have or of the total number of connections in the network, and show how this model can produce apparent power-law scaling without preferential attachment. Conclusion: A few simple rules can explain the topological structure and evolutionary changes to protein-interaction networks: most change is concentrated in satellite proteins of low connectivity and small phenotypic effect, and proteins differ in their propensity to form attachments. Given these rules of assembly, power law scaled networks naturally emerge from simple principles of selection, yielding protein interaction networks that retain a high-degree of robustness on short time scales and evolvability on longer evolutionary time scales.

A model for comparative analysis of inventory costs of JIT and EOQ purchasing in the ready mixed concrete industry

A model for comparing the inventory costs of purchasing under the economic order quantity (EOQ) system and the just-in-time (JIT) order purchasing system in existing literature concluded that JIT purchasing was virtually always the preferable inventory ordering system especially at high level of annual demand. By expanding the classical EOQ model, this paper shows that it is possible for the EOQ system to be more cost effective than the JIT system once the inventory demand approaches the EOQ-JIT cost indifference point. The case study conducted in the ready-mixed concrete industry in Singapore supported this proposition.

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Designing dietary interventions: a reappraisal of the demographic and socio-economic determinants of dietary choice in the UK

The facilitation of healthier dietary choices by consumers is one of the key elements of the UK Government’s food strategy. Designing and targeting dietary interventions requires a clear understanding of the determinants of dietary choice. Conventional analysis of the determinants of dietary choice has focused on mean response functions which may mask significant differences in the dietary behaviour of different segments of the population. In this paper we use a quantile regression approach to investigate how food consumption behaviour varies amongst UK households in different segments of the population, especially in the upper and lower quantiles characterised by healthy or unhealthy consumption patterns. We find that the effect of demographic determinants of dietary choice on households that exhibit less healthy consumption patterns differs significantly from that on households that make healthier consumption choices. A more nuanced understanding of the differences in the behavioural responses of households making less-healthy eating choices provides useful insights for the design and targeting of measures to promote healthier diets.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.