Arable crop rotations under abiotic stress: a dynamic economic model

Break crops and multi-crop rotations are common in arable farm management, and the soil quality inherited from a previous crop is one of the parameters that determine the gross margin that is achieved with a given crop from a given parcel of land. In previous work we developed a dynamic economic model to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios, and we reported use of the model to calculate coexistence costs for GM maize grown in a crop rotation. The model predicts economic effects of pest and weed pressures in monthly time steps. Validation of the model in respect of specific traits is proceeding as data from trials with novel crop varieties is published. Alongside this aspect of the validation process, we are able to incorporate data representing the economic impact of abiotic stresses on conventional crops, and then use the model to predict the cumulative gross margin achievable from a sequence of conventional crops grown at varying levels of abiotic stress. We report new progress with this aspect of model validation. In this paper, we report the further development of the model to take account of abiotic stress arising from drought, flood, heat or frost; such stresses being introduced in addition to variable pest and weed pressure. The main purpose is to assess the economic incentive for arable farmers to adopt novel crop varieties having multiple ‘stacked’ traits introduced by means of various biotechnological tools available to crop breeders.

A new governance perspective on port–hinterland relationships: the Port Hinterland Impact (PHI) matrix

We develop a new governance perspective on port–hinterland linkages and related port impacts. Many stakeholders in a port’s hinterland now demand tangible economic benefits from port activities, as a precondition for supporting port expansion and infrastructural investments. We use a governance lens to assess this farsighted contracting challenge. We find that most contemporary economic impact assessments of port investment projects pay scant attention to the contractual relationship challenges in port-hinterland relationships. In contrast, we focus explicitly on the spatial distribution of such impacts and the related contractual relationship issues facing port authorities or port users and their stakeholders in the port hinterland. We introduce a new concept, the Port Hinterland Impact (PHI) matrix, which focuses explicitly on the spatial distribution of port impacts and related contractual relationship challenges. The PHI matrix offers insight into port impacts using two dimensions: logistics dedicatedness, as an expression of Williamsonian asset specificity in the sphere of logistics contractual relationships, and geographic reach, with a longer reach typically reflecting the need for more complex contacting to overcome ‘distance’ challenges with external stakeholders. We use the PHI matrix in our empirical, governance-based analysis of contractual relationships between the port authorities in Antwerp and Zeebrugge, and their respective stakeholders.

Forage production and nutrient availability in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming and partial budgeting

Small-scale dairy systems play an important role in the Mexican dairy sector and farm planning activities related to resource allocation have a significant impact on the profitability of such enterprises. Linear programming is a technique widely used for planning and ration formulation, and partial budgeting is a technique for assessing the impact of changes on the profitability of an enterprise. This study used both methods to optimise land use for forage production and nutrient availability, and to evaluate the economic impact of such changes in small-scale Mexican dairy systems. The model showed satisfactory performance when optimal solutions were compared with the traditional strategy. The strategy using fresh ryegrass, maize silage and oat hay, and the strategy using a combination of alfalfa hay, maize silage, fresh ryegrass and oat hay appeared attractive options for providing a better nutrient supply and maintaining a higher stocking rate throughout the year than the traditional strategy.

Exploring costs and benefits of HACCP: a pilot study in the dairy and meat products industry in the European Union

Since 1995 the Directive 93/43/EEC prescribes the application of HACCP principles in food production. However, despite the major importance of food safety, there is a fundamental lack of information on the economic impact of this directive. This project aims to study costs and benefits of HACCP, including the impact of HACCP on public health. Due to the complexity of the issue, we propose to start with a pilot study, limited to dairy and meat products industry in NL, UK and I. Information will be obtained at two levels: production chain and public health. Integration of these results will result in recommendations at the levels of EU member states and industry for regulation and supporting measures, and in recommendations for an effective and efficient approach for a more comprehensive project on costs and benefits of HACCP, covering major parts of the food industry in EU member states.

New scientific paradigms for probiotics and prebiotics

The inaugural meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) was held May 3 to May 5 2002 in London, Ontario, Canada. A group of 63 academic and industrial scientists from around the world convened to discuss current issues in the science of probiotics and prebiotics. ISAPP is a non-profit organization comprised of international scientists whose intent is to strongly support and improve the levels of scientific integrity and due diligence associated with the study, use, and application of probiotics and prebiotics. In addition, ISAPP values its role in facilitating communication with the public and healthcare providers and among scientists in related fields on all topics pertinent to probiotics and prebiotics. It is anticipated that such efforts will lead to development of approaches and products that are optimally designed for the improvement of human and animal health and well being. This article is a summary of the discussions, conclusions, and recommendations made by 8 working groups convened during the first ISAPP workshop focusing on the topics of: definitions, intestinal flora, extra-intestinal sites, immune function, intestinal disease, cancer, genetics and genomics, and second generation prebiotics. Humans have evolved in symbiosis with an estimated 1014 resident microorganisms. However, as medicine has widely defined and explored the perpetrators of disease, including those of microbial origin, it has paid relatively little attention to the microbial cells that constitute the most abundant life forms associated with our body. Microbial metabolism in humans and animals constitutes an intense biochemical activity in the body, with profound repercussions for health and disease. As understanding of the human genome constantly expands, an important opportunity will arise to better determine the relationship between microbial populations within the body and host factors (including gender, genetic background, and nutrition) and the concomitant implications for health and improved quality of life. Combined human and microbial genetic studies will determine how such interactions can affect human health and longevity, which communication systems are used, and how they can be influenced to benefit the host. Probiotics are defined as live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host.1 The probiotic concept dates back over 100 years, but only in recent times have the scientific knowledge and tools become available to properly evaluate their effects on normal health and well being, and their potential in preventing and treating disease. A similar situation exists for prebiotics, defined by this group as non-digestible substances that provide a beneficial physiological effect on the host by selectively stimulating the favorable growth or activity of a limited number of indigenous bacteria. Prebiotics function complementary to, and possibly synergistically with, probiotics. Numerous studies are providing insights into the growth and metabolic influence of these microbial nutrients on health. Today, the science behind the function of probiotics and prebiotics still requires more stringent deciphering both scientifically and mechanistically. The explosion of publications and interest in probiotics and prebiotics has resulted in a body of collective research that points toward great promise. However, this research is spread among such a diversity of organisms, delivery vehicles (foods, pills, and supplements), and potential health targets such that general conclusions cannot easily be made. Nevertheless, this situation is rapidly changing on a number of important fronts. With progress over the past decade on the genetics of lactic acid bacteria and the recent, 2,3 and pending, 4 release of complete genome sequences for major probiotic species, the field is now armed with detailed information and sophisticated microbiological and bioinformatic tools. Similarly, advances in biotechnology could yield new probiotics and prebiotics designed for enhanced or expanded functionality. The incorporation of genetic tools within a multidisciplinary scientific platform is expected to reveal the contributions of commensals, probiotics, and prebiotics to general health and well being and explicitly identify the mechanisms and corresponding host responses that provide the basis for their positive roles and associated claims. In terms of human suffering, the need for effective new approaches to prevent and treat disease is paramount. The need exists not only to alleviate the significant mortality and morbidity caused by intestinal diseases worldwide (especially diarrheal diseases in children), but also for infections at non-intestinal sites. This is especially worthy of pursuit in developing nations where mortality is too often the outcome of food and water borne infection. Inasmuch as probiotics and prebiotics are able to influence the populations or activities of commensal microflora, there is evidence that they can also play a role in mitigating some diseases. 5,6 Preliminary support that probiotics and prebiotics may be useful as intervention in conditions including inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, allergy, cancer (especially colorectal cancer of which 75% are associated with diet), vaginal and urinary tract infections in women, kidney stone disease, mineral absorption, and infections caused by Helicobacter pylori is emerging. Some metabolites of microbes in the gut may also impact systemic conditions ranging from coronary heart disease to cognitive function, suggesting the possibility that exogenously applied microbes in the form of probiotics, or alteration of gut microecology with prebiotics, may be useful interventions even in these apparently disparate conditions. Beyond these direct intervention targets, probiotic cultures can also serve in expanded roles as live vehicles to deliver biologic agents (vaccines, enzymes, and proteins) to targeted locations within the body. The economic impact of these disease conditions in terms of diagnosis, treatment, doctor and hospital visits, and time off work exceeds several hundred billion dollars. The quality of life impact is also of major concern. Probiotics and prebiotics offer plausible opportunities to reduce the morbidity associated with these conditions. The following addresses issues that emerged from 8 workshops (Definitions, Intestinal Flora, Extra-Intestinal Sites, Immune Function, Intestinal Disease, Cancer, Genomics, and Second Generation Prebiotics), reflecting the current scientific state of probiotics and prebiotics. This is not a comprehensive review, however the study emphasizes pivotal knowledge gaps, and recommendations are made as to the underlying scientific and multidisciplinary studies that will be required to advance our understanding of the roles and impact of prebiotics, probiotics, and the commensal microflora upon health and disease management.

Bacterial pathogen evolution: breaking news

The immense social and economic impact of bacterial pathogens, from drug-resistant infections in hospitals to the devastation of agricultural resources, has resulted in major investment to understand the causes and conse- quences of pathogen evolution. Recent genome se- quencing projects have provided insight into the evolution of bacterial genome structures; revealing the impact of mobile DNA on genome restructuring and pathogenicity. Sequencing of multiple genomes of relat- ed strains has enabled the delineation of pathogen evo- lution and facilitated the tracking of bacterial pathogens globally. Other recent theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pathogen evolution is significantly influenced by ecological factors, such as the distribution of hosts within the environment and the effects of co- infection. We suggest that the time is ripe for experi- mentalists to use genomics in conjunction with evolu- tionary ecology experiments to further understanding of how bacterial pathogens evolve.

‘Once a miner, always a miner’: Poverty and livelihood diversification in Akwatia, Ghana

This paper offers an alternative viewpoint on why people choose to engage in artisanal mining – the low tech mineral extraction and processing of mainly precious metals and stones – for extended periods in sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing upon experiences from Akwatia, Ghana’s epicentre of diamond production since the mid-1920s, the analysis challenges the commonly-held view that the region’s people are drawn to artisanal mining solely because of a desire ‘to get rich quick’. A combination of events, including the recent closure of Ghana Consolidated Diamonds Ltd’s industrial-scale operation and decreased foreign investment in the country’s diamond industry over concerns of it potentially harbouring ‘conflict’ stones from neighbouring Coˆte D’Ivoire, has had a debilitating economic impact on Akwatia. In an attempt to alleviate their hardships, many of the town’s so-called ‘lifetime’ diamond miners have managed to secure employment in neighbouring artisanal gold mining camps. But their decision has been condemned by many of the country’s policymakers and traditional leaders, who see it solely as a move to secure ‘fast money’. It is argued here, however, that these people pursue work in surrounding artisanal gold mining communities mainly because of poverty, and that their decision has more to do with a desire to immerse in activities with which they are familiar, that offer stable employment and consistent salaries, and provide immediate debt relief. Misdiagnosis of cases such as Akwatia underscores how unfamiliar policymakers and donors are with the dynamics of ASM in sub-Saharan Africa.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Embedding arts and humanities in the creative economy: the role of graduates in the UK

The recent change in funding structure in the UK higher education system has fuelled an animated debate about the role that arts and humanities (A&H) subjects play not only within higher education but more broadly in the society and the economy. The debate has engaged with a variety of arguments and perspectives, from the intrinsic value of A&H, to their contribution to the broader society and their economic impact, particularly in relation to the creative economy, through knowledge exchange activities. The paper argues that in the current debate very little attention has been placed on the role that A&H graduates play in the economy, through their work after graduation, and specifically in the creative economy. Using Higher Education Statistical Agency data, we analyse the performance of A&H graduates (compared with other graduates) and particularly explore how embedded they are with the creative economy and its associated industries. The results highlight a complex intersection of different subdisciplines of the A&H with the creative economy but also reveal the salary gap and unstable working conditions experienced by graduates in this field.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

Botrytis species: relentless necrotrophic thugs or endophytes gone rogue?

Plant pathology has a long-standing tradition of classifying microbes as pathogens, endophytes or saprophytes. Lifestyles of pathogens are categorized as biotrophic, necrotrophic or hemibiotrophic. Botrytis species are considered by many to be archetypal examples of necrotrophic fungi, with B. cinerea being the most extensively studied species because of its broad host range and economic impact. In this review, we discuss recent work which illustrates that B. cinerea is capable of colonizing plants internally, presumably as an endophyte, without causing any disease or stress symptoms. The extent of the facultative endophytic behaviour of B. cinerea and its relevance in the ecology and disease epidemiology may be vastly underestimated. Moreover, we discuss the recent discovery of a novel Botrytis species, B. deweyae, which normally grows as an endophyte in ornamental daylilies (Hemerocallis), but displays facultative pathogenic behaviour, and is increasingly causing economic damage. We propose that the emergence of endophytes ‘gone rogue’ as novel diseases may be related to increased inbreeding of hybrid lines and reduced genetic diversity. These observations lead us to argue that the sometimes inflexible classification of pathogenic microbes by their lifestyles requires serious reconsideration. There is much more variety to the interactions of Botrytis with its hosts than the eye (or the plant pathologist) can see, and this may be true for other microbes interacting with plants.

Managing maize under pest species competition: is Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize the solution?

Transgenic crops that contain Cry genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been adopted by farmers over the last 17 years. Unlike traditional broad spectrum chemical insecticides, Bt's toxicity spectrum is relatively narrow and selective, which may indirectly benefit secondary insects that may become important pests. The economic damage caused by the rise of secondary pests could offset some or all of the benefits associated with the use of Bt varieties. We develop a bioeconomic model to analyze the interactions between primary and secondary insect populations and the impact of different management options on insecticide use and economic impact over time. Results indicate that some of the benefits associated with the adoption of genetically engineered insect resistant crops may be eroded when taking into account ecological dynamics. It is suggested that secondary pests could easily become key insect pests requiring additional measures - such as insecticide applications or stacked traits – to keep their populations under the economic threshold.

The take-up of Neighbourhood Planning in England 2011-2015

Exploration of how neighbourhoods and others have responded to the UK government’s localism agenda in England, and specifically towards Neighbourhood Planning (NP), is important given that NP is a prominent part of that policy agenda. It is also of interest as the ramifications emerge for planning practice in the formal introduction of statutory plans which are ostensibly led by communities (Parker et al, 2015; Gallent, 2013). There is a necessary task to provide critical commentary on the socio-economic impact of localist policy. The paper explores the issues arising from experience thus far and highlights the take-up of Neighbourhood Planning since 2011. This assessment shows how a vast majority of those active have been in parished areas and in less-deprived areas. This indicates that government needs to do more to ensure that NP is accessible and worthwhile for a wider range of communities.

The unpatriotism of the economic constitution? Rights to free movement and their impact on national and European identity

Abstract: Instead of the political reading of the EU Constitution adopted by advocates of constitutional patriotism, this article examines the European economic constitution. The four single market freedoms can be used by the Court of Justice to strike down Member State laws which represent deeply held aspects of national cultural identity. The article examines whether the court does in fact act in this way and proceeds to argue that the issue of identity protection does not stop with the court. In those policy areas where the court is more interventionist, and its case-law is perceived as an identity threat, one is likely to find binding Treaty-based derogations. Where, in contrast, the effect of the court's case-law poses less of a threat, one is more likely to see non-binding declarations. The article examines a number of policy areas in which specific cultural derogations and declarations are to be found, including abortion, property acquisition, football and alcohol control.