Statistical monitoring of student performance: an early warning system

Weekly monitoring of profiles of student performances on formative and summative coursework throughout the year can be used to quickly identify those who need additional help, possibly due to acute and sudden-onset problems. Such an early-warning system can help retention, but also assist students in overcoming problems early on, thus helping them fulfil their potential in the long run. We have developed a simple approach for the automatic monitoring of student mark profiles for individual modules, which we intend to trial in the near future. Its ease of implementation means that it can be used for very large cohorts with little additional effort when marks are already collected and recorded on a spreadsheet.

Salmon consumption during pregnancy alters fatty acid composition and secretory IgA concentration in human breast milk

Fish oil supplementation during pregnancy alters breast milk composition, but there is little information about the impact of oily fish consumption. We determined whether increased salmon consumption during pregnancy alters breast milk fatty acid composition and immune factors. Women (n = 123) who rarely ate oily fish were randomly assigned to consume their habitual diet or to consume 2 portions of farmed salmon per week from 20 wk of pregnancy until delivery. The salmon provided 3.45 g long-chain (LC) (n-3) PUFA/wk. Breast milk fatty acid composition and immune factors [soluble CD14, transforming growth factor-b (TGFb)1, TGFb2, and secretory IgA] were analyzed at 1, 5, 14, and 28 d postpartum (PP). Breast milk from the salmon group had higher proportions of EPA (80%), docosapentaenoic acid (30%), and DHA (90%) on d 5 PP compared with controls (P < 0.01). The LC (n-6) PUFA:LC (n-3) PUFA ratio was lower for the salmon group on all days of PP sampling (P < 0.004), although individual (n-6) PUFA proportions, including arachidonic acid, did not differ. All breast milk immune factors decreased between d 1 and 28 PP (P < 0.001). Breast milk secretory IgA (sIgA) was lower in the salmon group (d 1–28 PP; P = 0.006). Salmon consumption during pregnancy, at the current recommended intakes, increases the LC (n-3) PUFA concentration of breast milk in early lactation, thus improving the supply of these important fatty acids to the breast-fed neonate. The consequence of the lower breast milk concentration of sIgA in the salmon group is not clear.

Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: late Hauterivian to early Aptian dysaerobic to anaerobic phases in the Tethys.

A detailed geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). The analysed sediments consist of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-element contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. The RSTE pattern and Corg:Ptot ratios indicate that most organic-rich layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are both possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal Lower Saxony Basin, as well as with the facies and drowning pattern in the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the Lower Saxony Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and Lower Saxony Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterised by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were the likely cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of three Late Glacial/early Holocene speleothems: insights into soil and caveprocesses at climatic transitions

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of threeEuropean stalagmites deposited during the Late Glacial and early Holocene were investigated to understand better how the carbon isotope systematics of speleothems respond to climate transitions. The emphasis is on understanding how speleothems may record climate-driven changes in the proportions of biogenic (soil carbon) and limestone bedrock derived carbon. At two of the three sites, the combined δ13C and 14C data argue against greater inputs of limestone carbon as the sole cause of the observed shift to higher δ13C during the cold Younger Dryas. In these stalagmites (GAR-01 from La Garma cave, N. Spain and So-1 from Sofular cave, Turkey), the combined changes in δ13C and initial 14C activities suggest enhanced decomposition of old stored, more recalcitrant, soil carbon at the onset of the warmer early Holocene. Alternative explanations involving gradual temporal changes between open- and closed-system behaviour during the Late Glacial are difficult to reconcile with observed changes in speleothem δ13C and the growth rates. In contrast, a stalagmite from Pindal cave (N. Spain) indicates an abrupt change in carbon inputs linked to local hydrological and disequilibrium isotope fractionation effects, rather than climate change. For the first time, it is shown that while the initial 14C activities of all three stalagmites broadly follow the contemporaneous atmospheric 14C trends (the Younger Dryas atmospheric 14C anomaly can be clearly discerned), subtle changes in speleothem initial 14C activities are linked to climate-driven changes in soil carbon turnover at a climate transition.

Progressive palaeoenvironmental change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian as prelude to Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a: Evidence from the Gorgo a Cerbara section (Umbria-Marche basin, central Italy)

During Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a, 120 Ma; Li et al., 2008), organic carbon-rich layers were deposited in marine environments under anoxic conditions on a global scale. In this study, palaeoenvironmental conditions leading to this event are characterised by studying the Upper Barremian to the Lower Aptian succession of the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). For this, an integrated multi-proxy approach (δ13Ccarb; δ13Corg; δ18O; phosphorus; Total Organic Carbon, TOC; bulk-rock mineralogy, as well as redox-sensitive trace elements — RSTEs) has been applied. During the LateBarremian, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically, and associated Corg:Ptot ratios indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are observed between TOC, P and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between P availability, productivity, and TOC preservation. However, the corresponding δ13Ccarb and δ18O records remain quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon reservoir to deviate δ13C records. Around the Barremian–Aptian boundary, TOC-enriched layers become more frequent. These layers correlate with negative excursions in the δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, possibly due to a warming period as indicated by the δ18O record. During the earliest Aptian, this warming trend is reverted into a cooling trend, which is then followed by an important warming step near the onset of Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a). During this time period, organic-rich intervals occur, which are characterised by the progressive increase in RSTE. The warming step prior the onset of OAE 1a is associated with the well-known negative spike in δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, an important peak in P accumulation, RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level itself may document a cooling phase. RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE 1a at this site. The Gorgo a Cerbara section is interpreted to reflect the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change related to the formation of the Ontong-Java plate-basalt plateau, which started already around the Barremian–Aptian boundary and culminated into OAE 1a.

On the seasonal onset of polar mesospheric clouds and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs), also known as noctilucent clouds, have been observed to be more variable and, in general, dimmer than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. The precise cause of these hemispheric differences is not well understood. This paper focuses on one aspect of the hemispheric differences: the timing of the PMC season onset. Observations from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite indicate that in recent years the date on which the PMC season begins varies much more in the SH than in the NH. Using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, we show that the generation of sufficiently low temperatures necessary for cloud formation in the SH summer polar mesosphere is perturbed by year‐to‐year variations in the timing of the late‐spring breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. These stratospheric variations, which persist until the end of December, influence the propagation of gravity waves up to the mesosphere. This adds a stratospheric control to the temperatures in the polar mesopause region during early summer, which causes the onset of PMCs to vary from one year to another. This effect is much stronger in the SH than in the NH because the breakdown of the polar vortex occurs much later in the SH, closer in time to the PMC season.

Early, late or very late? Timing acquisition and bilingualism

Research on child bilingualism accounts for differences in the course and the outcomes of monolingual and different types of bilingual language acquisition primarily from two perspectives: age of onset of exposure to the language(s) and the role of the input (Genesee, Paradis, & Crago, 2004; Meisel, 2009; Unsworth et al., 2014). Some findings suggest that early successive bilingual children may pattern similarly to simultaneous bilingual children, passing through different trajectories from child L2 learners due to a later age of onset in the latter group. Studies on bilingual development have also shown that input quantity in bilingual acquisition is considerably reduced, i.e., in each of their two languages, bilingual children are likely exposed to much less input than their monolingual peers (Paradis & Genesee, 1996; Unsworth, 2013b). At the same time, simultaneous bilingual children develop and attain competence in the two languages, sometimes without even an attested age delay compared to monolingual children (Paradis, Genesee & Crago, 2011). The implication is that even half of the input suffices for early language development, at least with respect to ‘core’ aspects of language, in whatever way ‘core’ is defined.My aim in this article is to consider how an additional, linguistic variable interacts with age of onset and input in bilingual development, namely, the timing in L1 development of the phenomena examined in bilingual children’s performance. Specifically, I will consider timing differences attested in the monolingual development of features and structures, distinguishing between early, late or ‘very late’ acquired phenomena. I will then argue that this three-way distinction reflects differences in the role of narrow syntax: early phenomena are core, parametric and narrowly syntactic, in contrast to late and very late phenomena, which involve syntax-external or even language-external resources too. I explore the consequences of these timing differences in monolingual development for bilingual development. I will review some findings from early (V2 in Germanic, grammatical gender in Greek), late (passives) and very late (grammatical gender in Dutch) phenomena in the bilingual literature and argue that early phenomena can differentiate between simultaneous and (early) successive bilingualism with an advantage for the former group, while the other two reveal similarly (high or low) performance across bilingual groups, differentiating them from monolinguals. The paper proposes that questions about the role of age of onset and language input in early bilingual development can only be meaningfully addressed when the properties and timing of the phenomena under investigation are taken into account.

Rapid changes in the redox conditions of the western Tethys Ocean during the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event

The early Aptian (125 to 121 Ma) records an episode of severe environmental change including a major perturbation of the carbon cycle, an oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a, 122.5 Ma), a platform drowning episode and a biocalcification crisis. We propose to trace changes in the oxygenation state of the ocean during the early Aptian anoxic event using the redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) distribution, phosphorus accumulation rates (PARs) and organic-matter characterization in three different basins of the western Tethys. The following sections have been investigated: Gorgo a Cerbara (central Italy) in the Umbria Marche basin, Glaise (SE France) in the Vocontian basin and Cassis/La Bédoule (SE France) located in the Provencal basin. In the Gorgo a Cerbara section, RSTE distributions show a low background level along the main part of the section, contrasted by different maxima in concentrations within the Selli level. In the Glaise section, the Goguel level displays a weak increase in RSTE contents coeval with moderate TOC values. At Cassis/La Bédoule, no significant RSTE enrichments have been observed in sediments equivalent to the Selli level. These differences in the records of the geochemical proxies of the Selli level or its equivalent indicate the deposition under different redox conditions, probably related to the paleogeography. Our data indicate the development of anoxic–euxinic conditions in the deeper part of the Tethys during OAE 1a, whereas in the shallower environments, conditions were less reducing. Moreover, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the Selli level is characterized by rapid changes in the intensity of reducing conditions in the water column. Ocean eutrophication seems to be a major factor in the development and the persistence of anoxia as suggested by the PAR evolution. Higher PAR values at the onset of OAE 1a suggest an increase in nutrient input, whereas the return to lower values through the first part of the OAE 1a interval may be related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. This general pattern is contrasted by the data of Gorgo a Cerbara, where the sediments deposited during the OAE 1a interval show P-enrichments (mainly authigenic P). This is associated with maxima in TOC values and Corg:Ptot ratios, suggesting that a part of the remobilized P was trapped in the sediments and as such prevented from returning to the water column.

Multiprobabilistic prediction in early medical diagnoses

This paper describes the methodology of providing multiprobability predictions for proteomic mass spectrometry data. The methodology is based on a newly developed machine learning framework called Venn machines. Is allows to output a valid probability interval. The methodology is designed for mass spectrometry data. For demonstrative purposes, we applied this methodology to MALDI-TOF data sets in order to predict the diagnosis of heart disease and early diagnoses of ovarian cancer and breast cancer. The experiments showed that probability intervals are narrow, that is, the output of the multiprobability predictor is similar to a single probability distribution. In addition, probability intervals produced for heart disease and ovarian cancer data were more accurate than the output of corresponding probability predictor. When Venn machines were forced to make point predictions, the accuracy of such predictions is for the most data better than the accuracy of the underlying algorithm that outputs single probability distribution of a label. Application of this methodology to MALDI-TOF data sets empirically demonstrates the validity. The accuracy of the proposed method on ovarian cancer data rises from 66.7 % 11 months in advance of the moment of diagnosis to up to 90.2 % at the moment of diagnosis. The same approach has been applied to heart disease data without time dependency, although the achieved accuracy was not as high (up to 69.9 %). The methodology allowed us to confirm mass spectrometry peaks previously identified as carrying statistically significant information for discrimination between controls and cases.

Early changes in apoplast composition associated with defence and disease in interactions between Phaseolus vulgaris and the halo blight pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola

The apoplast is the arena in which endophytic pathogens such as Pseudomonas syringae grow and interact with plant cells. Using metabolomic and ion analysis techniques, this study shows how the composition of Phaseolus vulgaris leaf apoplastic fluid changes during the first six hours of compatible and incompatible interactions with two strains of Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola (Pph) that differ in the presence of the genomic island PPHGI-1. Leaf inoculation with the avirulent island-carrying strain Pph 1302A elicited effector-triggered immunity (ETI) and resulted in specific changes in apoplast composition, including increases in conductivity, pH, citrate, γ-aminobutyrate (GABA) and K+, that are linked to the onset of plant defence responses. Other apoplastic changes, including increases in Ca2+, Fe2/3+ Mg2+, sucrose, β-cyanoalanine and several amino acids, occurred to a relatively similar extent in interactions with both Pph 1302A and the virulent, island-less strain Pph RJ3. Metabolic footprinting experiments established that Pph preferentially metabolizes malate, glucose and glutamate, but excludes certain other abundant apoplastic metabolites, including citrate and GABA, until preferred metabolites are depleted. These results demonstrate that Pph is well-adapted to the leaf apoplast metabolic environment and that loss of PPHGI-1 enables Pph to avoid changes in apoplast composition linked to plant defences.