Increasing Autumn drought over Southern China associated with ENSO regime shift

In the two most recent decades, more frequent drought struck southern China during autumn, causing an unprecedented water crisis. We found that the increasing autumn drought is largely attributed to an ENSO regime shift. Compared to traditional eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño, central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events have occurred more frequently, with maximum sea surface temperature anomalies located near the dateline. Southern China usually experiences precipitation surplus during the autumn of EP El Niño years, while the CP El Niño tends to produce precipitation deficits. Since the CP El Niño has occurred more frequently while EP El Niño has become less common after the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of autumn drought. This has implications for increasing precipitation shortages over southern China in a warming world, in which CP El Niño events have been suggested to become more common.

Salinity changes in the world ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.

Support for the far right in the 2014 European Parliament Elections: a comparative perspective

The May 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections were characterised by the success of far-right Eurosceptic parties, including the French Front National, UKIP, the Danish People’s Party, the Hungarian Jobbik, the Austrian FPÖ, the True Finns and the Greek Golden Dawn. However, a closer look at the results across Europe indicates that the success of far-right parties in the EP elections is neither a linear nor a clear-cut phenomenon: (1) the far right actually declined in many European countries compared to the 2009 results; (2) some of the countries that have experienced the worst of the economic crisis, including Spain, Portugal and Ireland, did not experience a significant rise in far-right party support; and (3) ‘far right’ is too broad an umbrella term, covering parties that are too different from each other to be grouped in one single party family.

Radical left-wing Euroscepticism in the 2014 elections: a cross-European comparison

This article examines the varied performance of radical left-wing Eurosceptic parties during the 2014 EP elections. While the performance of the radical right during this 'earthquake' election has been widely discussed, little attention has been paid to the radical left. The article examines the result comparatively, and identifies that: (1) across Europe, radical left-wing euroscepticism is limited to few countries, including Greece, Cyprus, France and Portugal; (2) the countries that have experienced the worst of the economic crisis did not experience a significant rise in far right-wing party support but did experience the rise of left-wing euroscepticism; (3) from this sample only Greece experienced the rise of both the radical right and radical left.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Niño events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.

The rise of the far right in debtor and creditor European countries: the case of European Parliament elections

While the 2014 European Parliament elections were marked by the rise of far right-wing parties, the different patterns of support that we observe across Europe and across time are not directly related to the economic crisis. Indeed, economic hardship seems neither sufficient nor necessary for the rise of such parties to occur. Using the cross-national results for the 2004, 2009 and 2014 EP elections in order to capture time and country variations, we posit the economy affects the rise of far right-wing parties in more complex ways. Specifically, we compare the experience of high debt countries (the ‘debtors’) and the others (the ‘creditors’) and explore the relationship between far right-wing party success on the one hand, and unemployment, inequality, immigration, globalization and the welfare state on the other hand. Our discussion suggests there might be a trade off between budgetary stability and far right-wing party support, but the choice between Charybdis and Scylla may be avoided if policy makers carefully choose which policies should bear the brunt of the fiscal adjustment.

Impact of different El Niño types on the El Niño/IOD relationship

Previous studies reported that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to accompany El Niño during boreal autumn. Here we show that the El Niño/IOD relationship can be better understood when considering the two different El Niño flavors. Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events exhibit a strong correlation with the IOD dependent on their magnitude. In contrast, the relationship between Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events and the IOD depends mainly on the zonal location of the sea surface temperature anomalies rather than their magnitude. CP El Niño events lying further west than normal are not accompanied by significant anomalous easterlies over the eastern Indian Ocean along the Java/Sumatra coast, which is unfavorable for the local Bjerknes feedback and correspondingly for an IOD development. The El Niño/IOD relationship has experienced substantial changes due to the recent decadal El Niño regime shift, which has important implications for seasonal prediction.

Risks, costs and labour markets: explaining cross-national patterns of far right party success in European Parliament elections

What is the impact of the economy on cross national variation in far right-wing party support? This paper tests several hypotheses from existing literature on the results of the last three EP elections in all EU member states. We conceptualise the economy affects support because unemployment heightens the risks and costs that the population faces, but this is crucially mediated by labour market institutions. Findings from multiple regression analyses indicate that unemployment, real GDP growth, debt and deficits have no statistically significant effect on far right-wing party support at the national level. By contrast, labour markets influence costs and risks: where unemployment benefits and dismissal regulations are high, unemployment has no effect, but where either one of them is low, unemployment leads to higher far right-wing party support. This explains why unemployment has not led to far right-wing party support in some European countries that experienced the 2008 Eurozone crisis.

L1 Acquisition of interface properties across Portuguese dialects: modular and interdisciplinary interfaces as sources of explanation

This study investigates the child (L1) acquisition of properties at the interfaces of morphosyntax, syntax-semantics and syntax-pragmatics, by focusing on inflected infinitives in European Portuguese (EP). Three child groups were tested, 6–7-year-olds, 9–10-year-olds and 11–12-year-olds, as well as an adult control group. The data demonstrate that children as young as 6 have knowledge of the morpho-syntactic properties of inflected infinitives, although they seem at first glance to show partially insufficient knowledge of their syntax–semantic interface properties (i.e. non-obligatory control properties), differently from children aged 9 and older, who show clearer evidence of knowledge of both types of properties. However, in general, both morpho-syntactic and syntax–semantics interface properties are also accessible to 6–7-year-old children, although these children give preference to a range of interpretations partially different from the adults; in certain cases, they may not appeal to certain pragmatic inferences that permit additional interpretations to adults and older children. Crucially, our data demonstrate that EP children master the two types of properties of inflected infinitives years before Brazilian Portuguese children do (Pires and Rothman, 2009a,b), reasons for and implications of which we discuss in detail.

Acquisition of inflected and uninflected infinitives in child L1 European Portuguese

This study investigates the child (L1) acquisition of inflected and uninflected infinitives in European Portuguese (EP). We test and contrast properties involving two interfaces, focusing on morpho-syntactic and syntax-semantics properties of inflected infinitives, in contrast with uninflected infinitives. We present experimental results from three monolingual EP child groups, between ages 6 and 12 (n=72), compared to EP adults (n=32). Results show that children as young as 6-7 have knowledge of the morpho-syntactic properties of inflected infinitives, although at first glance they show insufficient knowledge of their syntax-semantics interface properties (i.e. non-obligatory control properties), differently from older children, who show evidence of knowledge of both types of properties. We argue that, in general, morpho-syntactic and syntax-semantics interface distinctions are also accessible to 6-7 children, but children may not show the entire range of interpretations possible for adults.

Acute benefits of the microbial-derived isoflavone metabolite equol on arterial stiffness in men prospectively recruited according to equol producer phenotype: a double-blind randomized controlled trial

There is much speculation with regard to the potential cardioprotective benefits of equol, a microbial-derived metabolite of the isoflavone daidzein, which is produced in the large intestine after soy intake in 30% of Western populations. Although cross-sectional and retrospective data support favorable associations between the equol producer (EP) phenotype and cardiometabolic health, few studies have prospectively recruited EPs to confirm this association. The aim was to determine whether the acute vascular benefits of isoflavones differ according to EP phenotype and subsequently investigate the effect of providing commercially produced S-(–)equol to non-EPs. We prospectively recruited male EPs and non-EPs (n = 14/ group) at moderate cardiovascular risk into a double-blind, placebocontrolled crossover study to examine the acute effects of soy isoflavones (80-mg aglycone equivalents) on arterial stiffness [carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity (cfPWV)], blood pressure, endothelial function (measured by using the EndoPAT 2000; Itamar Medical), and nitric oxide at baseline (0 h) and 6 and 24 h after intake. In a separate assessment, non-EPs consumed 40 mg S-(–)equol with identical vascular measurements performed 2 h after intake. After soy intake, cfPWV significantly improved in EPs at 24 h (cfPWV change from 0 h: isoflavone, 20.2 6 0.2 m/s; placebo, 0.6 6 0.2 m/s; P , 0.01), which was significantly associated with plasma equol concentrations (R = 20.36, P = 0.01). No vascular effects were observed in EPs at 6 h or in non-EPs at any time point. Similarly, no benefit of commercially produced S-(–)equol was observed in non-EPs despite mean plasma equol concentrations reaching 3.2 mmol/L. Acute soy intake improved cfPWV in EPs, equating to an 11–12% reduced risk of cardiovascular disease if sustained. However, a single dose of commercially produced equol had no cardiovascular benefits in non-EPs. These data suggest that the EP phenotype is critical in unlocking the vascular benefits of equol in men, and long-term trials should focus on confirming the implications of EP phenotype on cardiovascular health. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530893. Am J Clin Nutr doi: 10.3945/ajcn.115.125690.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.