Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar Mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area of about 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, with the first survey conducted in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of the Azarova Glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938-2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20±6.9% and surface lowered on average by 20±1.8 m (mean thinning: 0.71 m a-1) resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of -18±1.6 m w.e. and -640±60 mm w.e.a-1 respectively. The July-August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.036oC a-1 between 1979 and 2007 and the 1980-2007 period was, on average, around 1oC warmer than 1938-1979. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in 2071–2100 by 2.6-4.7°C and 4.9-6.2°C respectively in comparison with 1961–1990. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under B2 scenario but decline by 3% under A2 scenario. The length of the ablation season will extend from July–August to June-September. The Azarova Glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation, exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures, and the absence of a compensating impact of cold season precipitation. Further summer warming and decline of solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova to retreat further while impacts of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario require further investigation.

Evaluation of a Lagrangian box model using field measurements from EASE (Eastern Atlantic Summer Experiment) 1996

The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT), a Lagrangian chemistry model, has been evaluated using atmospheric chemical measurements collected during the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE '96). This field campaign was part of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's (NERC) Atmospheric Chemistry Studies in the Oceanic Environment (ACSOE) programme, conducted at Mace Head, Republic of Ireland, during July and August 1996. The model includes a description of gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, and simple parameterisations for surface deposition, mixing from the free troposphere and emissions. The model generally compares well with the measurements and is used to study the production and loss of O3 under a variety of conditions. The mean difference between the hourly O3 concentrations calculated by the model and those measured is 0.6 ppbv with a standard deviation of 8.7 ppbv. Three specific air-flow regimes were identified during the campaign – westerly, anticyclonic (easterly) and south westerly. The westerly flow is typical of background conditions for Mace Head. However, on some occasions there was evidence of long-range transport of pollutants from North America. In periods of anticyclonic flow, air parcels had collected emissions of NOx and VOCs immediately before arriving at Mace Head, leading to O3 production. The level of calculated O3 depends critically on the precise details of the trajectory, and hence on the emissions into the air parcel. In several periods of south westerly flow, low concentrations of O3 were measured which were consistent with deposition and photochemical destruction inside the tropical marine boundary layer.

Representativity of in situ precipitation measurements - a case study for the LITFASS area in North-Eastern Germany

In situ precipitation measurements can extremely differ in space and time. Taking into account the limited spatial–temporal representativity and the uncertainty of a single station is important for validating mesoscale numerical model results as well as for interpreting remote sensing data. In situ precipitation data from a high resolution network in North-Eastern Germany are analysed to determine their temporal and spatial representativity. For the dry year 2003 precipitation amounts were available with 10 min resolution from 14 rain gauges distributed in an area of 25 km 25 km around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg (Richard-Aßmann Observatory). Our analysis reveals that short-term (up to 6 h) precipitation events dominate (94% of all events) and that the distribution is skewed with a high frequency of very low precipitation amounts. Long-lasting precipitation events are rare (6% of all precipitation events), but account for nearly 50% of the annual precipitation. The spatial representativity of a single-site measurement increases slightly for longer measurement intervals and the variability decreases. Hourly precipitation amounts are representative for an area of 11 km 11 km. Daily precipitation amounts appear to be reliable with an uncertainty factor of 3.3 for an area of 25 km 25 km, and weekly and monthly precipitation amounts have uncertainties of a factor of 2 and 1.4 when compared to 25 km 25 km mean values.

The transition of the Polish real estate market within a Central and Eastern European context

The real estate market in Poland is a relatively immature market, but one that has been experiencing substantial transformation. The development of the market has been encouraged by a number of factors, including changes arising as a result of new legislation and the migration of capital between capital markets. The progress of the real estate sector towards a western style competitive market has taken place within the gradual transformation of the Polish economy into a free market economy. As investment grade property is in relatively short supply in Poland, investors consider opportunities within the wider CEE block. An analysis of the risk-return characteristics of the three largest CEE real estate markets namely, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, shows that the returns in these markets have been negatively correlated with the UK. As these economies and markets evolve, and being part of the wider EU trading block, their economic performance will slowly converge and become more synchronized with their western counterparts. However, the catch-up of the CEE markets to western European performance cycles will be protracted and consequently there are likely to be significant ongoing portfolio risk reduction opportunities

Holocene palaeoenvironmental history and the impact of prehistoric salt production in the Seille Valley, Eastern France

The Seille Valley in eastern France was home to one of Europe’s largest Iron Age salt industries. Sedimentology, palynology and geochronology have been integrated within ongoing archaeological investigations to reconstruct the Holocene palaeoenvironmental history of the Seille Valley and to elucidate the human–environment relationship of salt production. A sedimentary model of the valley has been constructed from a borehole survey of the floodplain and pollen analyses have been undertaken to reconstruct the vegetation history. Alluvial records have been successfully dated using optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon techniques, thereby providing a robust chronological framework. The results have provided an insight into the development of favourable conditions for salt production and there is evidence in the sedimentary record to suggest that salt production may have taken place during the mid-to-late Bronze Age. The latter has yet to be identified in the archaeological record and targeted excavation is therefore underway to test this finding. The development of the Iron Age industry had a major impact on the hydrological regime of the valley and its sedimentological history, with evidence for accelerated alluviation arising from floodplain erosion at salt production sites and modification of the local fluvial regime due to briquetage accumulation on the floodplain. This research provides an important insight into the environmental implications of early industrial activities, in addition to advancing knowledge about the Holocene palaeoenvironmental and social history of this previously poorly studied region of France.