Dynamic causal modeling applied to fMRI data shows high reliability

Sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility are vital to interpret neuroscientific results from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments. Here we examine the scan–rescan reliability of the percent signal change (PSC) and parameters estimated using Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) in scans taken in the same scan session, less than 5 min apart. We find fair to good reliability of PSC in regions that are involved with the task, and fair to excellent reliability with DCM. Also, the DCM analysis uncovers group differences that were not present in the analysis of PSC, which implies that DCM may be more sensitive to the nuances of signal changes in fMRI data.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields

Brief periods of high temperature which occur near flowering can severely reduce the yield of annual crops such as wheat and groundnut. A parameterisation of this well-documented effect is presented for groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaeaL.). This parameterisation was combined with an existing crop model, allowing the impact of season-mean temperature, and of brief high-temperature episodes at various times near flowering, to be both independently and jointly examined. The extended crop model was tested with independent data from controlled environment experiments and field experiments. The impact of total crop duration was captured, with simulated duration being within 5% of observations for the range of season-mean temperatures used (20-28 degrees C). In simulations across nine differently timed high temperature events, eight of the absolute differences between observed and simulated yield were less than 10% of the control (no-stress) yield. The parameterisation of high temperature stress also allows the simulation of heat tolerance across different genotypes. Three parameter sets, representing tolerant, moderately sensitive and sensitive genotypes were developed and assessed. The new parameterisation can be used in climate change studies to estimate the impact of heat stress on yield. It can also be used to assess the potential for adaptation of cropping systems to increased temperature threshold exceedance via the choice of genotype characteristics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought stress differentially affects leaf-mining species

1. The impact of climate change on phytophages is difficult to predict, due in part to variation between species in their responses to factors such as drought stress. Here, the hypothesis that several species within the leaf-mining feeding guild will respond in a consistent way to changes in rainfall patterns is tested, using a manipulative field experiment. 2. Summer drought, enhanced summer rainfall, and control treatments were imposed on a calcareous grassland community, and the responses of five leaf-mining species were assessed. 3. One leaf-mining species was more abundant under enhanced rainfall, one was more abundant under drought, and the other three species showed no consistent response to the rainfall treatments. Higher parasitism levels under drought may partly explain the response of one species (Stephensia brunnichella) to the treatments. 4. These results show that generalisations relating to drought stress impacts cannot be drawn at the feeding guild level for leaf-mining insects.

The life history legacy of evolutionary body size change in carnivores

We estimate the body sizes of direct ancestors of extant carnivores, and examine selected aspects of life history as a function not only of species' current size, but also of recent changes in size. Carnivore species that have undergone marked recent evolutionary size change show life history characteristics typically associated with species closer to the ancestral body size. Thus, phyletic giants tend to mature earlier and have larger litters of smaller offspring at shorter intervals than do species of the same body size that are not phyletic giants. Phyletic dwarfs, by contrast, have slower life histories than nondwarf species of the same body size. We discuss two possible mechanisms for the legacy of recent size change: lag (in which life history variables cannot evolve as quickly as body size, leading to species having the 'wrong' life history for their body size) and body size optimization (in which life history and hence body size evolve in response to changes in energy availability); at present, we cannot distinguish between these alternatives. Our finding that recent body size changes help explain residual variation around life history allometries shows that a more dynamic view of character change enables comparative studies to make more precise predictions about species traits in the context of their evolutionary background.

Dynamic virtual environments using really simple syndication

This paper investigates the use of really simple syndication (RSS) to dynamically change virtual environments. The case study presented here uses meteorological data downloaded from the Internet in the form of an RSS feed, this data is used to simulate current weather patterns in a virtual environment. The downloaded data is aggregated and interpreted in conjunction with a configuration file, used to associate relevant weather information to the rendering engine. The engine is able to animate a wide range of basic weather patterns. Virtual reality is a way of immersing a user into a different environment, the amount of immersion the user experiences is important. Collaborative virtual reality will benefit from this work by gaining a simple way to incorporate up-to-date RSS feed data into any environment scenario. Instead of simulating weather conditions in training scenarios, actual weather conditions can be incorporated, improving the scenario and immersion.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Differential regulation of Krüppel-like factor family transcription factor expression in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes: effects of endothelin-1, oxidative stress and cytokines

Krüppel-like transcription factors (Klfs) modulate fundamental cell processes. Cardiac myocytes are terminally-differentiated, but hypertrophy in response to stimuli such as endothelin-1. H2O2 or cytokines promote myocyte apoptosis. Microarray studies of neonatal rat myocytes identified several Klfs as endothelin-1-responsive genes. We used quantitative PCR for further analysis of Klf expression in neonatal rat myocytes. In response to endothelin-1, Klf2 mRNA expression was rapidly increased ( approximately 9-fold; 15-30 min) with later increases in expression of Klf4 and Klf6 ( approximately 5-fold; 30-60 min). All were regulated as immediate early genes (cycloheximide did not inhibit the increases in expression). Klf5 expression was increased at 1-2 h ( approximately 13-fold) as a second phase response (cycloheximide inhibited the increase). These increases were transient and attenuated by U0126. H2O2 increased expression of Klf2, Klf4 and Klf6, but interleukin-1beta or tumor necrosis factor alpha downregulated Klf2 expression with no effect on Klf4 or Klf6. Of the Klfs which repress transcription, endothelin-1 rapidly downregulated expression of Klf3, Klf11 and Klf15. The dynamic regulation of expression of multiple Klf family members in cardiac myocytes suggests that, as a family, they are actively involved in regulating phenotypic responses (hypertrophy and apoptosis) to extracellular stimuli.

Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making

We summarise the work of an interdisciplinary network set up to explore the impacts of climate change in the British Uplands. In this CR Special, the contributors present the state of knowledge and this introduction synthesises this knowledge and derives implications for decision makers. The Uplands are valued semi-natural habitats, providing ecosystem services that have historically been taken for granted. For example, peat soils, which are mostly found in the Uplands, contain around 50% of the terrestrial carbon in the UK. Land management continues to be a driver of ecosystem service delivery. Degraded and managed peatlands are subject to erosion and carbon loss with negative impacts on biodiversity, carbon storage and water quality. Climate change is already being experienced in British Uplands and is likely to exacerbate these pressures. Climate envelope models suggest as much as 50% of British Uplands and peatlands will be exposed to climate stress by the end of the 21st century under low and high emissions scenarios. However, process-based models of the response of organic soils to this climate stress do not give a consistent indication of what this will mean for soil carbon: results range from a very slight increase in uptake, through a clear decline, to a net carbon loss. Preserving existing peat stocks is an important climate mitigation strategy, even if new peat stops forming. Preserving upland vegetation cover is a key win–win management strategy that will reduce erosion and loss of soil carbon, and protect a variety of services such as the continued delivery of a high quality water resource.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Tree species’ tolerance to water stress, salinity and fire

According to climate change predictions, water availability might change dramatically in Europe and adjacent regions. This change will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on existing tree species and affect their ability to cope with a lack or an excess of water, changes in annual precipitation patterns, soil salinity and fire disturbance. The following chapter will describe tree species and proven-ances used in European forestry practice which are the most suitable to deal with water stress, salinity and fire. Each subchapter starts with a brief description of each of the stress factors and discusses the predictions of the likelihood of their occurrence in the near future according to the climate change scenarios. Tree spe-cies and their genotypes able to cope with particular stress factor, together with indication of their use by forest managers are then introduced in greater detail.

Dynamic stall for a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine in a two-dimensional study

The last few years have proved that Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are more suitable for urban areas than Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWTs). To date, very little has been published in this area to assess good performance and lifetime of VAWTs either in open or urban areas. At low tip speed ratios (TSRs<5), VAWTs are subjected to a phenomenon called 'dynamic stall'. This can really affect the fatigue life of a VAWT if it is not well understood. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how CFD is able to simulate the dynamic stall for 2-D flow around VAWT blades. During the numerical simulations different turbulence models were used and compared with the data available on the subject. In this numerical analysis the Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model seems to predict the dynamic stall better than the other turbulence models available. The limitations of the study are that the simulations are based on a 2-D case with constant wind and rotational speeds instead of considering a 3-D case with variable wind speeds. This approach was necessary for having a numerical analysis at low computational cost and time. Consequently, in the future it is strongly suggested to develop a more sophisticated model that is a more realistic simulation of a dynamic stall in a three-dimensional VAWT.