Estimating numbers of infectious units from serial dilution assays

The paper concerns the design and analysis of serial dilution assays to estimate the infectivity of a sample of tissue when it is assumed that the sample contains a finite number of indivisible infectious units such that a subsample will be infectious if it contains one or more of these units. The aim of the study is to estimate the number of infectious units in the original sample. The standard approach to the analysis of data from such a study is based on the assumption of independence of aliquots both at the same dilution level and at different dilution levels, so that the numbers of infectious units in the aliquots follow independent Poisson distributions. An alternative approach is based on calculation of the expected value of the total number of samples tested that are not infectious. We derive the likelihood for the data on the basis of the discrete number of infectious units, enabling calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate and likelihood-based confidence intervals. We use the exact probabilities that are obtained to compare the maximum likelihood estimate with those given by the other methods in terms of bias and standard error and to compare the coverage of the confidence intervals. We show that the methods have very similar properties and conclude that for practical use the method that is based on the Poisson assumption is to be recommended, since it can be implemented by using standard statistical software. Finally we consider the design of serial dilution assays, concluding that it is important that neither the dilution factor nor the number of samples that remain untested should be too large.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

A note on the accuracy of PAC-likelihood inference with microsatellite data

Stephens and Donnelly have introduced a simple yet powerful importance sampling scheme for computing the likelihood in population genetic models. Fundamental to the method is an approximation to the conditional probability of the allelic type of an additional gene, given those currently in the sample. As noted by Li and Stephens, the product of these conditional probabilities for a sequence of draws that gives the frequency of allelic types in a sample is an approximation to the likelihood, and can be used directly in inference. The aim of this note is to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of "product of approximate conditionals" (PAC) likelihood when used with microsatellite data. Results obtained on simulated microsatellite data show that this strategy leads to a negligible bias over a wide range of the scaled mutation parameter theta. Furthermore, the sampling variance of likelihood estimates as well as the computation time are lower than that obtained with importance sampling on the whole range of theta. It follows that this approach represents an efficient substitute to IS algorithms in computer intensive (e.g. MCMC) inference methods in population genetics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Three-level main-effects designs exploiting prior information about model uncertainty

To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467-475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters' prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters' prior beliefs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference on microsatellite mutation processes in the invasive mite, Varroa destructor, using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite of the Eastern honeybee Apis cerana. Fifty years ago, two distinct evolutionary lineages (Korean and Japanese) invaded the Western honeybee Apis mellifera. This haplo-diploid parasite species reproduces mainly through brother sister matings, a system which largely favors the fixation of new mutations. In a worldwide sample of 225 individuals from 21 locations collected on Western honeybees and analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci, a series of de novo mutations was observed. Using historical data concerning the invasion, this original biological system has been exploited to compare three mutation models with allele size constraints for microsatellite markers: stepwise (SMM) and generalized (GSM) mutation models, and a model with mutation rate increasing exponentially with microsatellite length (ESM). Posterior probabilities of the three models have been estimated for each locus individually using reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The relative support of each model varies widely among loci, but the GSM is the only model that always receives at least 9% support, whatever the locus. The analysis also provides robust estimates of mutation parameters for each locus and of the divergence time of the two invasive lineages (67,000 generations with a 90% credibility interval of 35,000-174,000). With an average of 10 generations per year, this divergence time fits with the last post-glacial Korea Japan land separation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of correlated evolution of discrete characters by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

We describe a Bayesian method for investigating correlated evolution of discrete binary traits on phylogenetic trees. The method fits a continuous-time Markov model to a pair of traits, seeking the best fitting models that describe their joint evolution on a phylogeny. We employ the methodology of reversible-jump ( RJ) Markov chain Monte Carlo to search among the large number of possible models, some of which conform to independent evolution of the two traits, others to correlated evolution. The RJ Markov chain visits these models in proportion to their posterior probabilities, thereby directly estimating the support for the hypothesis of correlated evolution. In addition, the RJ Markov chain simultaneously estimates the posterior distributions of the rate parameters of the model of trait evolution. These posterior distributions can be used to test among alternative evolutionary scenarios to explain the observed data. All results are integrated over a sample of phylogenetic trees to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. We implement the method in a program called RJ Discrete and illustrate it by analyzing the question of whether mating system and advertisement of estrus by females have coevolved in the Old World monkeys and great apes.

The expected performance of single nucleotide polymorphism loci in paternity testing

We discuss the utility of single nucleotide polymorphism loci for full trio and mother-unavailable paternity testing cases, in the presence of population substructure and relatedness of putative and actual fathers. We focus primarily on the expected number of loci required to gain specified probabilities of mismatches, and report the expected proportion of paternity indices greater than three threshold values for these loci. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Construction of coordination polymers of cadmium(II) with mixed hexamethylenetetramine and terephthalate or thiocyanate ligands

Three new polymeric complexes [Cd(hmt)(SCN)(2)(H2O)(2)](n) (1), [Cd-3(mu(2)-hmt)(2)(SCN)(6)(H2O)(2)](n) (2), and [Cd-2(hmt)(2)(tP)(2)(H2O)(6)](n) (3) [hmt = hexamethylenetetramine, tp = terephthalate] have been synthesized and characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Both the compounds 1 and 2 are 1-D polymers where Cd units are linked by double end-to-end thiocyanate bridges but in 2 the chain is wider containing three cadmium atoms instead of one as found in 1. In both compounds the coordination environment around cadmium atom is distorted octahedral. Compound 3 is a three-dimensional polymer having water-filled microporous channels. Both tp and brut are mu(2)-bridged. One of the acid groups of tp is coordinated in chelating bidentate and the other in monodentate fashion. Half of its Cd atoms are hexa-coordinated and the rest are hepta-coordinated. Thermogravimetric analysis and X-ray diffraction study of 3 show that its framework remains intact upon removal of water molecules. The flexibility of coordination number around cadmium atoms (six or seven) probably plays an important role in establishing the rigidity of the framework. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dinuclear complexes of M-II thiocyanate (M = Ni and Cu) containing a tridentate Schiff-base ligand: synthesis, structural diversity and magnetic properties

A dinuclear Ni-II complex, [Ni-2(L)(2)(H2O)(NCS)(2)]center dot 3H(2)O (1) in which the metal atoms are bridged by one water molecule and two mu(2)-phenolate ions, and a thiocyanato-bridged dimeric Cull complex, [Cu(L)NCS](2) (2) [L = tridentate Schiff-base ligand, N-(3-aminopropyl)salicylaldimine, derived from 1:1 condensation of salicylaldehyde and 1,3-diaminopropane], have been synthesized and characterized by IR and UV/Vis spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry and single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies. The structure of 1 consists of dinuclear units with crystallographic C-2 symmetry in which each Ni-II atom is in a distorted octahedral environment. The Ni-O distance and the Ni-O-Ni angle, through the bridged water molecule, are 2.240(11) angstrom and 82.5(5)degrees, respectively. The structure of 2 consists of dinuclear units bridged asymmetrically by di-mu(1,3)-NCS ions; each Cull ion is in a square-pyramidal environment with tau = 0.25. Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility studies indicate the presence of dominant ferromagnetic exchange coupling in complex 1 with J = 3.1 cm(-1), whereas complex 2 exhibits weak antiferromagnetic coupling between the Cu-II centers with J = -1.7 cm(-1). ((c) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2005)

Synthesis, crystal structure and hydrolysis of a dinuclear copper(II) complex constructed by N2O donor Schiff base and 4,4 '-bipyridine: discrete supra-molecular ensembles vs. oligomers

The tridentate Schiff base ligand, 7-amino-4-methyl-5-aza-3-hepten-2-one (HAMAH), prepared by the mono-condensation of 1,2diaminoethane and acetylacetone, reacts with Cu(BF4)(2) center dot 6H(2)O to produce initially a dinuclear Cu(II) complex, [{Cu(AMAH)}(2) (mu-4,4'-bipyJ](BF4)(2) (1) which undergoes hydrolysis in the reaction mixture and finally produces a linear polymeric chain compound, [Cu(acac)(2)(mu-4,4'-bipy)](n) (2). The geometry around the copper atom in compound 1 is distorted square planar while that in compound 2 is essentially an elongated octahedron. On the other hand, the ligand HAMAH reacts with Cu(ClO4)(2) center dot 6H(2)O to yield a polymeric zigzag chain, [{Cu(acac)(CH3OH)(mu-4,4'-bipy)}(ClO4)](n) (3). The geometry of the copper atom in 3 is square pyramidal with the two bipyridine molecules in the cis equatorial positions. All three complexes have been characterized by elemental analysis, IR and UV-Vis spectroscopy and single crystal X-ray diffraction studies. A probable explanation for the different size and shape of the reported polynuclear complexes formed by copper(II) and 4,4'-bipyridine has been put forward by taking into account the denticity and crystal field strength of the blocking ligand as well as the Jahn-Teller effect in copper(II). (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copper(II) complexes of mono-anionic glutamate: anionic influence in the variations of molecular and supramolecular structures

Three new polynuclear copper(II) complexes of singly deprotonated L-glutamic acid (L-glu), {[Cu(bipy)(2)][Cu(bipy)(L-glu)H2O](2)(BF4)(4)center dot(H2O)(3)}(n) (1), {[Cu(bipy)(L-glu)H2O][Cu(bipy)(L-glu)(ClO4)]( ClO4)center dot(H2O)(2)}(n) ((2)) and [Cu(phen)(L-glu)H2O](2)(NO3)(2)center dot(H2O)(4) (3) (bipy = 2,2-bipyridine, phen = 1,10-phenanthroline), were synthesized in acidic pH (ca. 2.5) and characterized structurally. In all the complexes, L-glutamic acid acts as a bidentate chelating ligand, leaving the protonated carboxylic acid free. Both in 1 and 2, two different types of species [Cu(bipy)(2)](BF4)(2) and [Cu(bipy)(L-glu)H2O] BF4 for 1 and [Cu(bipy)(L-glu)H2O]ClO4 and [Cu(bipy)(L-glu)(ClO4)] for 2 coexist in the solid state. In complex 1, the [C( bipy)(L-glu)H2O]+ units are joined together by syn-anti carboxylate bridges to form an enantiopure (M) helical chain and the [Cu(bipy)(2)](2+) presents a very rare example of the four-coordinate distorted tetrahedral geometry of Cu(II). In complex 2, the [Cu(bipy)(L gluClO(4))] units are joined together by weakly coordinating perchlorate ions to form a 1D polymeric chain while the [Cu(bipy)(L-glu)H2O]+ units remain as mononuclear species. The different coordinating ability of the two counter anions along with their involvement in the H-bonding network seems likely to be responsible for the difference in the final polymeric structures in the two compounds. Variable-temperature (2-300 K) magnetic susceptibility measurements show negligible coupling for both the complexes. The structure of 3 consists of two independent monomeric [Cu(phen)(L-glu)H2O]+ cations, two nitrate anions and four water molecules. The copper atom occupies a five-coordinate square pyramidal environment with a water molecule in the axial position.

Nickel(II) complexes of terdentate or symmetrical tetradentate Schiff bases: Evidence of the influence of the counter anions in the hydrolysis of the imine bond in Schiff base complexes

Two sets of ligands, set-1 and set-2, have been prepared by mixing 1,3-diaminopentane and carbonyl compounds (2-acetylpyridine or pyridine-2-carboxaldehyde) in 1:1 and 1:2 ratios, respectively, and employed for the synthesis of complexes with Ni(II) perchlorate, Ni(II) thiocyanate and Ni(II) chloride. Ni(II) perchlorate yields the complexes having general formula [NiL2](ClO4)(2)(L = L-1 [N-3-(1-pyridin-2-yl-ethylidene)-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 1 or L-2[N-3-pyridin-2-ylmethylene-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 2) in which the Schiff bases are monocondensed terdentate, whereas Ni(II) thiocyanate results in the formation of tetradentate Schiff base complexes, [NiL(SCN)(2)] (L = L-3[N,N'-bis-(1-pyridin-2- yl-ethylidine)-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 3 or L-4 [N,N'-bis(pyridin-2-ylmethyline)-pentane-1,3- diamine] for complex 4) irrespective of the sets of ligands used. Complexes 5 {[NiL3(N-3)(2)]} and 6 {[NiL4(N-3)(2)]} are prepared by adding sodium azide to the methanol solution of complexes 1 and 2. Addition of Ni(II) chloride to the set-1 or set-2 ligands produces [Ni(pn)(2)]Cl-2, 7, as the major product, where pn = 1,3-diaminopentane. Formation of the complexes has been explained by the activation of the imine bond by the counter anion and thereby favouring the hydrolysis of the Schiff base. All the complexes have been characterized by elemental analyses and spectral data. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies con. firm the structures of three representative members, 1, 4 and 7; all of them have distorted octahedral geometry around Ni(II). The bis-complex of terdentate ligands, 1, is the mer isomer, and complexes 4 and 7 possess trans geometry. (C) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis, characterization, and anion selectivity of copper(II) complexes with a tetradentate Schiff base ligand

A new mononuclear Cu(II) complex, [CuL(ClO4)(2)] (1) has been derived from symmetrical tetradentate di-Schiff base, N,N'-bis-(1-pyridin-2-yl-ethylidene)-propane-1,3-diamine (L) and characterized by X-ray crystallography. The copper atom assumes a tetragonally distorted octahedral geometry with two perchlorate oxygens coordinated very weakly in the axial positions. Reactions of I with sodium azide, ammonium thiocyanate or sodium nitrite solution yielded compounds [CuL(N-3)]ClO4 (2), [CuL(SCN)ClO4 (3) or [CuL(NO2)]-ClO4 (4), respectively, all of which have been characterized by X-ray analysis. The geometries of the penta-coordinated copper(H) in complexes 2-4 are intermediate between square pyramid and trigonal bipyramid (tbp) having the Addition parameters (tau) 0.47, 0.45 and 0.58, respectively. In complex 4, the nitrite ion is coordinated as a chelating ligand and essentially both the 0 atoms of the nitrite occupy one axial site. Complex 1 shows distinct preference for the anion in the order SCN- > N-3(-) > NO2- in forming the complexes 24 when treated with a SCN-/N-3(-)/NO2- mixture. Electrochemical electron transfer study reveals (CuCuI)-Cu-II reduction in acetonitrile solution. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Anion directed templated synthesis of mono- and di-Schiff base complexes of Ni(II)

Two sets of Schiff base ligands, set-1 and set-2 have been prepared by mixing the respective diamine (1,2-propanediamine or 1,3-propanediamine) and carbonyl compounds (2-acetylpyridine or pyridine-2-carboxaldehyde) in 1:1 and 1:2 ratios, respectively and employed for the synthesis of complexes with Ni(II) perchlorate and Ni(II) thiocyanate. Ni(II) perchlorate yields the complexes having general formula [NiL2](ClO4)(2) (L = L-1 [N-1-(1-pyridin-2-yl-ethylidine)-propane-1,3-diamine] for complex 1, L-2 [N-1-pyridine-2-ylmethylene-propane1,3-diamine] for complex 2 or L-3 [N-1-(1-pyridine-2-yl-ethylidine)-propane-1,2-diamine] for complex 3) in which the Schiff bases are mono-condensed terdentate whereas Ni(II) thiocyanate results in the formation of tetradentate Schiff base complexes, [NiL](SCN)(2) (L=L-4 [N,N'-bis-(1-pyridine-2-yl-ethylidine)-propane-1,3-diamine] for complex 4, L-5 [NN'-bis(pyridine-2-ylmethyline)-propane-1, 3-diamine] for complex 5 or L-6 [NN'-bis-(1-pyridine-2-yl-ethylidine)-propane- 1, 2-diamine] for complex 6) irrespective of the sets of ligands used. Formation of the complexes has been explained by anion modulation of cation templating effect. All the complexes have been characterized by elemental analyses, spectral and electrochemical results. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies confirm the structures of four representative members, 1, 3, 4 and 5; all of them have distorted octahedral geometry around Ni(II). The bis-complexes of terdentate ligands, I and 3 are the mer isomers and the complexes of tetradentate ligands, 4 and 5 possess trans geometry. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.