Accelerating shrinkage of Patagonian glaciers from the Little Ice Age (∼AD 1870) to 2011

We used Little Ice Age (LIA) trimlines and moraines to assess changes in South American glaciers over the last ∼140 years. We determined the extent and length of 640 glaciers during the LIA (∼ AD 1870) and 626 glaciers (the remainder having entirely disappeared) in 1986, 2001 and 2011. The calculated reduction in glacierized area between the LIA and 2011 is 4131 km2 (15.4%), with 660 km2 (14.2%) being lost from the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI), 1643 km2 (11.4%) from the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) and 306 km2 (14.4%) from Cordillera Darwin. Latitude, size and terminal environment (calving or land-terminating) exert the greatest control on rates of shrinkage. Small, northerly, land-terminating glaciers shrank fastest. Annual rates of area loss increased dramatically after 2001 for mountain glaciers north of 52° S and the large icefields, with the NPI and SPI now shrinking at 9.4 km2 a–1 (0.23% a–1) and 20.5 km2 a–1 (0.15% a–1) respectively. The shrinkage of glaciers between 52° S and 54° S accelerated after 1986, and rates of shrinkage from 1986 to 2011 remained steady. Icefield outlet glaciers, isolated glaciers and ice caps south of 54° S shrank faster from 1986 to 2001 than they did from 2001 to 2011.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Attempted re-establishment of a sooty tern Onychoprion fuscatus breeding colony on Denis Island, Seychelles

Seychelles supports around three million nesting pairs of sooty terns. However, there have been recent declines and the colonies continue to face ongoing threats from habitat change and excessive commercial harvesting of their eggs, as well as potential threats by commercial fishing and climate change. A possible method to counter these threats is to re-establish breeding colonies on islands from which they have disappeared. An attempt was made to attract birds to a previously occupied island through habitat management, decoy birds and playback of recorded sooty tern calls. Habitat preparation involved predator eradication and tree removal to provide open ground with bare sandy areas and low herb vegetation. Overflying birds were attracted by broadcast calls, with some circling over and landing among the decoys. Large three-dimensional plastic models were superior to other models presented. This study demonstrated that large numbers of birds can be attracted by these means and that the birds then undertook behaviour associated with breeding, including egg laying by a few birds. However, after five seasons a breeding colony has not yet been established; one possible cause is the emergence of unexpected egg predators, common moorhen Gallinula chloropus and common myna Acridotheres tristis.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

Effect of high temperature and water stress on groundnuts under field conditions

Groundnuts cultivated in the semiarid tropics are often exposed to water stress (mid-season and end season) and high temperature (> 34 °C) during the critical stages of flowering and pod development. This study evaluated the effects of both water stress and high temperature under field conditions at ICRISAT, India. Treatments included two irrigations (full irrigation, 100 % of crop evapotranspiration; and water stress, 40 % of crop evapotranspiration), four temperature treatments from a combination of two sowing dates and heat tunnels with mean temperatures from sowing to maturity of 26.3° (T1), 27.3° (T2), 29.0° (T3) and 29.7 °C (T4) and two genotypes TMV2 and ICGS 11. The heat tunnels were capable of raising the day temperature by > 10 °C compared to ambient. During the 20-day high-temperature treatment at flowering, mean temperatures were 33.8° (T1), 41.6° (T2), 38.7° (T3) and 43.5°C (T4). The effects of water stress and high temperature were additive and temporary for both vegetative and pod yield, and disappeared as soon as high-temperature stress was removed. Water use efficiency was significantly affected by the main effects of temperature and cultivar and not by water stress treatments. Genotypic differences for tolerance to high temperature can be attributed to differences in flowering pattern, flower number, peg-set and harvest index. It can be inferred from this study that genotypes that are tolerant to water stress are also tolerant to high temperature under field conditions. In addition, genotypes with an ability to establish greater biomass and with a significantly greater partitioning of biomass to pod yield would be suitable for sustaining higher yields in semiarid tropics with high temperature and water stress.

Transient microgeographic clines during B chromosome invasion

The near-neutral model of B chromosome evolution predicts that the invasion of a new population should last some tens of generations, but the details on how it proceeds in real populations are mostly unknown. Trying to fill this gap, we analyze here a natural population of the grasshopper Eyprepocnemis plorans at three time points during the last 35 years. Our results show that B chromosome frequency increased significantly during this period, and that a cline observed in 1992 had disappeared in 2012 once B frequency reached an upper limit in all sites sampled. This indicates that, during B chromosome invasion, at microgeographic scale, transient clines for B frequency are formed at the invasion front. Computer simulation experiments showed that the pattern of change observed for genotypic frequencies is consistent with the existence of B chromosome drive through females and selection against individuals with high number of B chromosomes.

Is cognitive bias modification training truly beneficial for adolescents?

Background Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) has been shown to change interpretation biases commonly associated with anxiety and depression and may help ameliorate symptoms of these disorders. However, its evidence base for adolescents is scarce. Previous results have been hard to interpret because of methodological issues. In particular, many studies have used negative bias training as the control condition. This would tend to inflate any apparent benefits of CBM compared to a neutral control. Most studies also only examined the effects of a single training session and lacked follow-up assessment or ecologically valid outcome measures. Method Seventy-four adolescents, aged 16–18 years, were randomised to two sessions of CBM training or neutral control. Interpretation bias and mood were assessed three times: at baseline, immediately post-training and 1 week post-training. A controlled experimental stressor was also used, and responses to everyday stressors were recorded for 1 week after training to assess responses to psychological challenges. Feedback for the training programme was collected. Results The CBM group reported a greater reduction in negative affect than control participants. However, other hypothesised advantages of CBM were not demonstrated. Regardless of training group, participants reported increased positive interpretations, decreased negative interpretations, reduced depressive symptoms and no change in trait anxiety. The two groups did not differ in their stress reactivity. After controlling for group differences in training performance, all the mood effects disappeared. Conclusions When tested under stringent experimental conditions the effects of CBM in healthy adolescents appear to be minimal. Future studies should concentrate on participants with elevated cognitive biases and/or mood symptoms who may be more sensitive to CBM.

PKC-dependent activation of p46/p54 JNKs during ischemic preconditioning in conscious rabbits.

A conscious rabbit model was used to study the effect of ischemic preconditioning (PC) on stress-activated kinases [c-Jun NH(2)-terminal kinases (JNKs) and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK)] in an environment free of surgical trauma and attending external stress. Ischemic PC (6 cycles of 4-min ischemia/4-min reperfusion) induced significant activation of protein kinase C (PKC)-epsilon in the particulate fraction, which was associated with activation of p46 JNK in the nuclear fraction and p54 JNK in the cytosolic fraction; all of these changes were completely abolised by the PKC inhibitor chelerythrine. Selective enhancement of PKC-epsilon activity in adult rabbit cardiac myocytes resulted in enhanced activity of p46/p54 JNKs, providing direct in vitro evidence that PKC-epsilon is coupled to both kinases. Studies in rabbits showed that the activation of p46 JNK occurred during ischemia, whereas that of p54 JNK occurred after reperfusion. A single 4-min period of ischemia induced a robust activation of the p38 MAPK cascade, which, however, was attenuated after 5 min of reperfusion and disappeared after six cycles of 4-min ischemia/reperfusion. Overexpression of PKC-epsilon in cardiac myocytes failed to increase the p38 MAPK activity. These results demonstrate that ischemic PC activates p46 and p54 JNKs via a PKC-epsilon-dependent signaling pathway and that there are important differences between p46 and p54 JNKs with respect to the subcellular compartment (cytosolic vs. nuclear) and the mechanism (ischemia vs. reperfusion) of their activation after ischemic PC.