The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

Cross-modal preference acquisition: evaluative conditioning of pictures by affective olfactory and auditory cues

In this research, a cross-model paradigm was chosen to test the hypothesis that affective olfactory and auditory cues paired with neutral visual stimuli bearing no resemblance or logical connection to the affective cues can evoke preference shifts in those stimuli. Neutral visual stimuli of abstract paintings were presented simultaneously with liked and disliked odours and sounds, with neutral-neutral pairings serving as controls. The results confirm previous findings that the affective evaluation of previously neutral visual stimuli shifts in the direction of contingently presented affective auditory stimuli. In addition, this research shows the presence of conditioning with affective odours having no logical connection with the pictures.

Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach

[ 1] A potential vorticity (PV) budget method has been used to attribute vertical transport across the near-tropopause ( 1 PVU surface) in extratropical weather systems to radiative, latent heating and cooling, and mixing processes. Sources and sinks of PV due to nonconservative processes are calculated online and advected as passive tracers. There is reasonable agreement between the spatial distribution of transport determined from the PV budget method and the transport across the 1 - 2 PVU zone from a passive tracer and trajectories, but different aspects of exchange can be diagnosed with each method. Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport occurred in the broad upper level PV anomalies and was attributed mainly to latent heating and cooling processes; troposphere-to-stratosphere transport occurred toward the tail of a PV filament and in a ridge region and was attributed mainly to radiative processes. The contribution of mixing processes to transport was comparatively small. Using the PV budget method, the domain integrated exchange across the 1 PVU surface was from stratosphere to troposphere, and the magnitude of 1 x 10(15) kg over a 2 day winter integration in a large North Atlantic domain is consistent with stratosphere-troposphere exchange calculations from other studies. This exchange arises from an approximate balance between the dominant stratosphere-to-troposphere transport due to latent heating and cooling processes and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport due to radiative processes. The direction of transport across the tropopause in a fold was found to be critically dependent on the PV surface considered to represent the tropopause.

Extraction of tidal channel networks from airborne scanning laser altimetry and aerial photography

The study of the morphodynamics of tidal channel networks is important because of their role in tidal propagation and the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. Channel dimensions range from tens of metres wide and metres deep near the low water mark to only 20-30cm wide and 20cm deep for the smallest channels on the marshes. The conventional method of measuring the networks is cumbersome, involving manual digitising of aerial photographs. This paper describes a semi-automatic knowledge-based network extraction method that is being implemented to work using airborne scanning laser altimetry (and later aerial photography). The channels exhibit a width variation of several orders of magnitude, making an approach based on multi-scale line detection difficult. The processing therefore uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels using a distance-with-destination transform. Breaks in the networks are repaired by extending channel ends in the direction of their ends to join with nearby channels, using domain knowledge that flow paths should proceed downhill and that any network fragment should be joined to a nearby fragment so as to connect eventually to the open sea.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

The calculation of accurate normal coordinates I: general theory, and application to methane

The calculation of accurate and reliable vibrational potential functions and normal co-ordinates is discussed, for such simple polyatomic molecules as it may be possible. Such calculations should be corrected for the effects of anharmonicity and of resonance interactions between the vibrational states, and should be fitted to all the available information on all isotopic species: particularly the vibrational frequencies, Coriolis zeta constants and centrifugal distortion constants. The difficulties of making these corrections, and of making use of the observed data are reviewed. A programme for the Ferranti Mercury Computer is described by means of which harmonic vibration frequencies and normal co-ordinate vectors, zeta factors and centrifugal distortion constants can be calculated, from a given force field and from given G-matrix elements, etc. The programme has been used on up to 5 × 5 secular equations for which a single calculation and output of results takes approximately l min; it can readily be extended to larger determinants. The best methods of using such a programme and the possibility of reversing the direction of calculation are discussed. The methods are applied to calculating the best possible vibrational potential function for the methane molecule, making use of all the observed data.

Simultaneous observations of reconnection pulses at Cluster and their effects on the cusp aurora seen at Chinese Yellow River Station

While the Cluster spacecraft were located near the high-latitude magnetopause, between 10:10 and 10:40 UT on 16 January 2004, three typical flux transfer event (FTE) signatures were observed. During this interval, simultaneous and conjugated all-sky camera measurements, recorded at Yellow River Station, Svalbard, are available at 630.0 and 557.7nm that show poleward-moving auroral forms (PMAFs), consistent with magnetic reconnection at dayside magnetopause. Simultaneous FTEs seen at the magnetopause mainly move northward, but having duskward (eastward) and tailward velocity components, roughly consistent with the observed direction of motion of the PMAFs in all-sky images. Between the PMAFs meridional keograms, extracted from the all-sky images, show intervals of lower intensity aurora which migrate equatorward just before the PMAFs intensify. This is strong evidence for an equatorward eroding and poleward moving open-closed boundary (OCB) associated with a variable magnetopause reconnection rate under variable IMF conditions. From the durations of the PMAFs we infer that the evolution time of FTEs is 5-11 minutes from its origin on magnetopause to its addition to the polar cap.

Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Evaluation of NRC, UC Davis and ADAS approaches to estimate the metabolizable energy values of feeds at maintenance energy intake from equations utilizing chemical assays and in vitro determinations

Feed samples received by commercial analytical laboratories are often undefined or mixed varieties of forages, originate from various agronomic or geographical areas of the world, are mixtures (e.g., total mixed rations) and are often described incompletely or not at all. Six unified single equation approaches to predict the metabolizable energy (ME) value of feeds determined in sheep fed at maintenance ME intake were evaluated utilizing 78 individual feeds representing 17 different forages, grains, protein meals and by-product feedstuffs. The predictive approaches evaluated were two each from National Research Council [National Research Council (NRC), Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle, seventh revised ed. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 2001], University of California at Davis (UC Davis) and ADAS (Stratford, UK). Slopes and intercepts for the two ADAS approaches that utilized in vitro digestibility of organic matter and either measured gross energy (GE), or a prediction of GE from component assays, and one UC Davis approach, based upon in vitro gas production and some component assays, differed from both unity and zero, respectively, while this was not the case for the two NRC and one UC Davis approach. However, within these latter three approaches, the goodness of fit (r(2)) increased from the NRC approach utilizing lignin (0.61) to the NRC approach utilizing 48 h in vitro digestion of neutral detergent fibre (NDF:0.72) and to the UC Davis approach utilizing a 30 h in vitro digestion of NDF (0.84). The reason for the difference between the precision of the NRC procedures was the failure of assayed lignin values to accurately predict 48 h in vitro digestion of NDF. However, differences among the six predictive approaches in the number of supporting assays, and their costs, as well as that the NRC approach is actually three related equations requiring categorical description of feeds (making them unsuitable for mixed feeds) while the ADAS and UC Davis approaches are single equations, suggests that the procedure of choice will vary dependent Upon local conditions, specific objectives and the feedstuffs to be evaluated. In contrast to the evaluation of the procedures among feedstuffs, no procedure was able to consistently discriminate the ME values of individual feeds within feedstuffs determined in vivo, suggesting that the quest for an accurate and precise ME predictive approach among and within feeds, may remain to be identified. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is agriculture the engine of growth?

We seek to address formally the question raised by Gardner (2003) in his Elmhirst lecture as to the direction of causality between agricultural value added per worker and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Using the Granger causality test in the panel data analyzed by Gardner for 85 countries, we find overwhelming evidence that supports the conclusion that agricultural value added is the causal variable in developing countries, while the direction of causality in developed countries is unclear. We also examine further the use of the Granger causality test in integrated data and provide evidence that the performance of the test can be increased in small samples through the use of the bootstrap.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for a reversal with age in the pattern of near-wall blood flow around aortic branches

The changes that occur with age in the distribution of atherosclerotic lesions around arterial branch points challenge accepted theories relating disease to haemodynamic stresses. We investigated whether flow near branch points changes with age in a way that can account for the different lesion distributions. Flow around 20 branches from immature and mature aortas was investigated by examining the length:width ratio and orientation of endothelial nuclei; these properties depend on the magnitude and direction of near-wall flows, respectively. There were significant changes in the pattern of nuclear shape with age, consistent with a reversal in the pattern of shear around branches. In control regions away from branches, there were no such changes. The role of haemodynamic stresses in atherogenesis may require re-evaluation in the light of these results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cellulose microfibril angle in the cell wall of wood fibres

The term microfibril angle (MFA) in wood science refers to the angle between the direction of the helical windings of cellulose microfibrils in the secondary cell wall of fibres and tracheids and the long axis of cell. Technologically, it is usually applied to the orientation of cellulose microfibrils in the S2 layer that makes up the greatest proportion of the wall thickness, since it is this which most affects the physical properties of wood. This review describes the organisation of the cellulose component of the secondary wall of fibres and tracheids and the various methods that have been used for the measurement of MFA. It considers the variation of MFA within the tree and the biological reason for the large differences found between juvenile (or core) wood and mature (or outer) wood. The ability of the tree to vary MFA in response to environmental stress, particularly in reaction wood, is also described. Differences in MFA have a profound effect on the properties of wood, in particular its stiffness. The large MFA in juvenile wood confers low stiffness and gives the sapling the flexibility it needs to survive high winds without breaking. It also means, however, that timber containing a high proportion of juvenile wood is unsuitable for use as high-grade structural timber. This fact has taken on increasing importance in view of the trend in forestry towards short rotation cropping of fast grown species. These trees at harvest may contain 50% or more of timber with low stiffness and therefore, low economic value. Although they are presently grown mainly for pulp, pressure for increased timber production means that ways will be sought to improve the quality of their timber by reducing juvenile wood MFA. The mechanism by which the orientation of microfibril deposition is controlled is still a matter of debate. However, the application of molecular techniques is likely to enable modification of this process. The extent to which these techniques should be used to improve timber quality by reducing MFA in juvenile wood is, however, uncertain, since care must be taken to avoid compromising the safety of the tree.

Evidence for a reversal with age in the pattern of near-wall blood flow around aortic branches

The changes that occur with age in the distribution of atherosclerotic lesions around arterial branch points challenge accepted theories relating disease to haemodynamic stresses. We investigated whether flow near branch points changes with age in a way that can account for the different lesion distributions. Flow around 20 branches from immature and mature aortas was investigated by examining the length:width ratio and orientation of endothelial nuclei; these properties depend on the magnitude and direction of near-wall flows, respectively. There were significant changes in the pattern of nuclear shape with age, consistent with a reversal in the pattern of shear around branches. In control regions away from branches, there were no such changes. The role of haemodynamic stresses in atherogenesis may require re-evaluation in the light of these results.

Structure of AuCN determined from total neutron diffraction

The structure of gold cyanide, AuCN, has been determined at 10 and 300 K using total neutron diffraction. The structure consists of infinite -Au-(CN)-Au-(CN)-Au-(CN)- linear chains, hexagonally packed, with the gold atoms in sheets. The Au-C and Au-N bond lengths are found to be identical, with d(Au-C/N) = 1.9703(5) Angstrom at 300 K. This work supersedes a previous study, by others, which used Rietveld analysis of neutron Bragg diffraction in isolation, and found these bonds to have significantly different lengths (Deltad = 0.24 Angstrom) at 300 K. The total correlation function, T(r), at 10 and 300 K, has been modeled using information derived from total diffraction. The broadening of inter- and intrachain correlations differs markedly due to random displacements of the chains in the direction of the chain axes. This is a consequence of the relatively weak bonding between the chains. An explanation for the negative thermal expansion in the c-direction, which occurs between 10 and 300 K, is presented.