Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.

Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case-study from COPS

The present study investigates the initiation of precipitating deep convection in an ensemble of convection-resolving mesoscale models. Results of eight different model runs from five non-hydrostatic models are compared for a case of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). An isolated convective cell initiated east of the Black Forest crest in southwest Germany, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Measurements revealed that, due to the absence of synoptic forcing, convection was initiated by local processes related to the orography. In particular, the lifting by low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer is assumed to be the dominant process on that day. The models used different configurations as well as different initial and boundary conditions. By comparing the different model performance with each other and with measurements, the processes which need to be well represented to initiate convection at the right place and time are discussed. Besides an accurate specification of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the results highlight the role of boundary-layer convergence features for quantitative precipitation forecasts in mountainous terrain.

Cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection over a heated mountain

Cloud-resolving numerical simulations of airflow over a diurnally heated mountain ridge are conducted to explore the mechanisms and sensitivities of convective initiation under high pressure conditions. The simulations are based on a well-observed convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) during summer 2007, where an isolated afternoon thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains of central Europe, but they are idealized to facilitate understanding and reduce computational expense. In the conditionally unstable but strongly inhibited flow under consideration, sharp horizontal convergence over the mountain acts to locally weaken the inhibition and moisten the dry midtroposphere through shallow cumulus detrainment. The onset of deep convection occurs not through the deep ascent of a single updraft but rather through a rapid succession of thermals that are vented through the mountain convergence zone into the deepening cloud mass. Emerging thermals rise through the saturated wakes of their predecessors, which diminishes the suppressive effects of entrainment and allows for rapid glaciation above the freezing level as supercooled cloud drops rime onto preexisting ice particles. These effects strongly enhance the midlevel cloud buoyancy and enable rapid ascent to the tropopause. The existence and vigor of the convection is highly sensitive to small changes in background wind speed U0, which controls the strength of the mountain convergence and the ability of midlevel moisture to accumulate above the mountain. Whereas vigorous deep convection develops for U0 = 0 m s−1, deep convection is completely eliminated for U0 = 3 m s−1. Although deep convection is able to develop under intermediate winds (U0 = 1.5 m s−1), its formation is highly sensitive to small-amplitude perturbations in the initial flow.

Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Effect of phonetic complexity on word reading and repetition in deep dyslexia

This investigation moves beyond the traditional studies of word reading to identify how the production complexity of words affects reading accuracy in an individual with deep dyslexia (JO). We examined JO’s ability to read words aloud while manipulating both the production complexity of the words and the semantic context. The classification of words as either phonetically simple or complex was based on the Index of Phonetic Complexity. The semantic context was varied using a semantic blocking paradigm (i.e., semantically blocked and unblocked conditions). In the semantically blocked condition words were grouped by semantic categories (e.g., table, sit, seat, couch,), whereas in the unblocked condition the same words were presented in a random order. JO’s performance on reading aloud was also compared to her performance on a repetition task using the same items. Results revealed a strong interaction between word complexity and semantic blocking for reading aloud but not for repetition. JO produced the greatest number of errors for phonetically complex words in semantically blocked condition. This interaction suggests that semantic processes are constrained by output production processes which are exaggerated when derived from visual rather than auditory targets. This complex relationship between orthographic, semantic, and phonetic processes highlights the need for word recognition models to explicitly account for production processes.

Global trajectory optimisation: can we prune the solution space when considering deep space manoeuvres?

This document contains a report on the work done under the ESA/Ariadna study 06/4101 on the global optimization of space trajectories with multiple gravity assist (GA) and deep space manoeuvres (DSM). The study was performed by a joint team of scientists from the University of Reading and the University of Glasgow.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Interactions between shallow and deep convection under a finite departure from convective quasi–equilibrium

The present paper presents a simple theory for the transformation of non-precipitating, shallow convection into precipitating, deep convective clouds. In order to make the pertinent point a much idealized system is considered, consisting only of shallow and deep convection without large–scale forcing. The transformation is described by an explicit coupling between these two types of convection. Shallow convection moistens and cools the atmosphere, whereas deep convection dries and warms, leading to destabilization and stabilization respectively. Consequently, in their own stand–alone modes, shallow convection perpetually grows, whereas deep convection simply damps: the former never reaches equilibrium, and the latter is never spontaneously generated. Coupling the modes together is the only way to reconcile these undesirable separate tendencies so that the convective system as a whole can remain in a stable periodic state under this idealized setting. Such coupling is a key missing element in current global atmospheric models. The energy–cycle description as originally formulated by Arakawa and Schubert, and presented herein is suitable for direct implementation into models using a mass–flux parameterization, and would alleviate the current problems with the representation of these two types of convection in numerical models. The present theory also provides a pertinent framework for analyzing large–eddy simulations and cloud–resolving modelling.

Lexical access, story re-telling and sequencing skills in adults who clutter and those who do not

Cluttering is a rate-based disorder of fluency, the scope of whose diagnostic criteria currently remains unclear. This paper reports preliminary findings from a larger study which aims to determine whether cluttering can be associated with language disturbances as well as motor and rate based ones. Subtests from the Mt Wilga High Level Language Test (MWHLLT) were used to determine whether people who clutter (PWC) have word finding difficulties, and use significantly more maze behaviours compared to controls, during story re-telling and simple sequencing tasks. Independent t tests showed that PWC were significantly slower than control participants in lexical access and sentence completion tasks, but returned mixed findings when PWCs were required to name items within a semantic category. PWC produced significantly more maze behaviour than controls in a task where participants were required to explain how to undertake commonly performed actions, but no difference in use of maze behaviour was found between the two groups when retelling a story from memory. The implications of these findings are discussed

Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake

The efficiency with which the oceans take up heat has a significant influence on the rate of global warming. Warming of the ocean above 700 m over the past few decades has been well documented. However, most of the ocean lies below 700 m. Here we analyse observations of heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. We find that the extratropical North Atlantic as a whole warmed by 1.45±0.5×1022 J between 1955 and 2005, but Lower North Atlantic Deep Water cooled, most likely as an adjustment from an early twentieth-century warm period. In contrast, the heat content of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water exhibited strong decadal variability. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of density-compensated temperature anomalies for long-term heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. These anomalies form in the subpolar gyre and propagate equatorwards. High salinity in the subpolar gyre is a key requirement for this mechanism. In the past 50 years, suitable conditions have occurred only twice: first during the 1960s and again during the past decade. We conclude that heat uptake through density-compensated temperature anomalies will contribute to deep ocean heat uptake in the near term. In the longer term, the importance of this mechanism will be determined by competition between the multiple processes that influence subpolar gyre salinity in a changing climate.