Observation impact in data assimilation: the effect of non-Gaussian observation error.

Data assimilation methods which avoid the assumption of Gaussian error statistics are being developed for geoscience applications. We investigate how the relaxation of the Gaussian assumption affects the impact observations have within the assimilation process. The effect of non-Gaussian observation error (described by the likelihood) is compared to previously published work studying the effect of a non-Gaussian prior. The observation impact is measured in three ways: the sensitivity of the analysis to the observations, the mutual information, and the relative entropy. These three measures have all been studied in the case of Gaussian data assimilation and, in this case, have a known analytical form. It is shown that the analysis sensitivity can also be derived analytically when at least one of the prior or likelihood is Gaussian. This derivation shows an interesting asymmetry in the relationship between analysis sensitivity and analysis error covariance when the two different sources of non-Gaussian structure are considered (likelihood vs. prior). This is illustrated for a simple scalar case and used to infer the effect of the non-Gaussian structure on mutual information and relative entropy, which are more natural choices of metric in non-Gaussian data assimilation. It is concluded that approximating non-Gaussian error distributions as Gaussian can give significantly erroneous estimates of observation impact. The degree of the error depends not only on the nature of the non-Gaussian structure, but also on the metric used to measure the observation impact and the source of the non-Gaussian structure.

Real-Time software control of neural stimulation in a closed loop Animat system

A recent area for investigation into the development of adaptable robot control is the use of living neuronal networks to control a mobile robot. The so-called Animat paradigm comprises a neuronal network (the ‘brain’) connected to an external embodiment (in this case a mobile robot), facilitating potentially robust, adaptable robot control and increased understanding of neural processes. Sensory input from the robot is provided to the neuronal network via stimulation on a number of electrodes embedded in a specialist Petri dish (Multi Electrode Array (MEA)); accurate control of this stimulation is vital. We present software tools allowing precise, near real-time control of electrical stimulation on MEAs, with fast switching between electrodes and the application of custom stimulus waveforms. These Linux-based tools are compatible with the widely used MEABench data acquisition system. Benefits include rapid stimulus modulation in response to neuronal activity (closed loop) and batch processing of stimulation protocols.

The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

The use of earth observation techniques to improve catchment-scale pollution predictions

Remote sensing can potentially provide information useful in improving pollution transport modelling in agricultural catchments. Realisation of this potential will depend on the availability of the raw data, development of information extraction techniques, and the impact of the assimilation of the derived information into models. High spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery of a farm near Hereford, UK is analysed. A technique is described to automatically identify the soil and vegetation endmembers within a field, enabling vegetation fractional cover estimation. The aerially-acquired laser altimetry is used to produce digital elevation models of the site. At the subfield scale the hypothesis that higher resolution topography will make a substantial difference to contaminant transport is tested using the AGricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) model. Slope aspect and direction information are extracted from the topography at different resolutions to study the effects on soil erosion, deposition, runoff and nutrient losses. Field-scale models are often used to model drainage water, nitrate and runoff/sediment loss, but the demanding input data requirements make scaling up to catchment level difficult. By determining the input range of spatial variables gathered from EO data, and comparing the response of models to the range of variation measured, the critical model inputs can be identified. Response surfaces to variation in these inputs constrain uncertainty in model predictions and are presented. Although optical earth observation analysis can provide fractional vegetation cover, cloud cover and semi-random weather patterns can hinder data acquisition in Northern Europe. A Spring and Autumn cloud cover analysis is carried out over seven UK sites close to agricultural districts, using historic satellite image metadata, climate modelling and historic ground weather observations. Results are assessed in terms of probability of acquisition probability and implications for future earth observation missions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic load balancing in parallel KD-tree k-means

One among the most influential and popular data mining methods is the k-Means algorithm for cluster analysis. Techniques for improving the efficiency of k-Means have been largely explored in two main directions. The amount of computation can be significantly reduced by adopting geometrical constraints and an efficient data structure, notably a multidimensional binary search tree (KD-Tree). These techniques allow to reduce the number of distance computations the algorithm performs at each iteration. A second direction is parallel processing, where data and computation loads are distributed over many processing nodes. However, little work has been done to provide a parallel formulation of the efficient sequential techniques based on KD-Trees. Such approaches are expected to have an irregular distribution of computation load and can suffer from load imbalance. This issue has so far limited the adoption of these efficient k-Means variants in parallel computing environments. In this work, we provide a parallel formulation of the KD-Tree based k-Means algorithm for distributed memory systems and address its load balancing issue. Three solutions have been developed and tested. Two approaches are based on a static partitioning of the data set and a third solution incorporates a dynamic load balancing policy.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

The changing structure of diets in the European Union in relation to healthy eating guidelines

Objective: Our objective in this paper is to assess diets in the European Union (EU) in relation to the recommendations of the recent World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization expert consultation and to show how diets have changed between 1961 and 2001. Data and methods: Computations make use of FAOSTAT data on food availability at country level linked to a food composition database to convert foods to nutrients. We further explore the growing similarity of diets in the EU by making use of a consumption similarity index. The index provides a single number measure of dietary overlap between countries. Results: The data confirm the excessive consumption by almost all countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugars, and the convergence of nutrient intakes across the EU. Whereas in 1961 diets in several European countries were more similar to US diets than to those of other European countries, this is no longer the case; moreover, while EU diets have become more homogeneous, the EU as a whole and the USA have become less similar over time. Conclusions: Although the dominant cause of greater similarity in EU diets over the period studied is increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, also important are reductions in saturated fat and sugar in some Northern European countries. This suggests that healthy eating messages are finally having an impact on diets; a distinctly European diet may also be emerging.

Liquid ultraviolet matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization - mass spectrometry for automated proteomic analysis

We have combined several key sample preparation steps for the use of a liquid matrix system to provide high analytical sensitivity in automated ultraviolet -- matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation -- mass spectrometry (UV-MALDI-MS). This new sample preparation protocol employs a matrix-mixture which is based on the glycerol matrix-mixture described by Sze et al. The low-femtomole sensitivity that is achievable with this new preparation protocol enables proteomic analysis of protein digests comparable to solid-state matrix systems. For automated data acquisition and analysis, the MALDI performance of this liquid matrix surpasses the conventional solid-state MALDI matrices. Besides the inherent general advantages of liquid samples for automated sample preparation and data acquisition the use of the presented liquid matrix significantly reduces the extent of unspecific ion signals in peptide mass fingerprints compared to typically used solid matrices, such as 2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid (DHB) or alpha-cyano-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA). In particular, matrix and low-mass ion signals and ion signals resulting from cation adduct formation are dramatically reduced. Consequently, the confidence level of protein identification by peptide mass mapping of in-solution and in-gel digests is generally higher.

Liquid ultraviolet matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry for automated proteomic analysis

We have combined several key sample preparation steps for the use of a liquid matrix system to provide high analytical sensitivity in automated ultraviolet - matrix-assisted laser desorption/ ionisation - mass spectrometry (UV-MALDI-MS). This new sample preparation protocol employs a matrix-mixture which is based on the glycerol matrix-mixture described by Sze et al. U. Am. Soc. Mass Spectrom. 1998, 9, 166-174). The low-ferntomole sensitivity that is achievable with this new preparation protocol enables proteomic analysis of protein digests comparable to solid-state matrix systems. For automated data acquisition and analysis, the MALDI performance of this liquid matrix surpasses the conventional solid-state MALDI matrices. Besides the inherent general advantages of liquid samples for automated sample preparation and data acquisition the use of the presented liquid matrix significantly reduces the extent of unspecific ion signals in peptide mass fingerprints compared to typically used solid matrices, such as 2,5-dihydrox-ybenzoic acid (DHB) or alpha-cyano-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA). In particular, matrix and lowmass ion signals and ion signals resulting from cation adduct formation are dramatically reduced. Consequently, the confidence level of protein identification by peptide mass mapping of in-solution and in-gel digests is generally higher.

Serum proteomic abnormality predating screen detection of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is characterized by vague, non-specific symptoms, advanced stage at diagnosis and poor overall survival. A nested case control study was undertaken on stored serial serum samples from women who developed ovarian cancer and healthy controls (matched for serum processing and storage conditions as well as attributes such as age) in a pilot randomized controlled trial of ovarian cancer screening. The unique feature of this study is that the women were screened for up to 7 years. The serum samples underwent prefractionation using a reversed-phase batch extraction protocol prior to MALDI-TOF MS data acquisition. Our exploratory analysis shows that combining a single MS peak with CA125 allows statistically significant discrimination at the 5% level between cases and controls up to 12 months in advance of the original diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Such combinations work much better than a single peak or CA125 alone. This paper demonstrates that mass spectra from the low molecular weight serum proteome carry information useful for early detection of ovarian cancer. The next step is to identify the specific biomarkers that make early detection possible.

Quantitative pulsed phase thermography applied to steel plates

Pulsed Phase Thermography (PPT) has been proven effective on depth retrieval of flat-bottomed holes in different materials such as plastics and aluminum. In PPT, amplitude and phase delay signatures are available following data acquisition (carried out in a similar way as in classical Pulsed Thermography), by applying a transformation algorithm such as the Fourier Transform (FT) on thermal profiles. The authors have recently presented an extended review on PPT theory, including a new inversion technique for depth retrieval by correlating the depth with the blind frequency fb (frequency at which a defect produce enough phase contrast to be detected). An automatic defect depth retrieval algorithm had also been proposed, evidencing PPT capabilities as a practical inversion technique. In addition, the use of normalized parameters to account for defect size variation as well as depth retrieval from complex shape composites (GFRP and CFRP) are currently under investigation. In this paper, steel plates containing flat-bottomed holes at different depths (from 1 to 4.5 mm) are tested by quantitative PPT. Least squares regression results show excellent agreement between depth and the inverse square root blind frequency, which can be used for depth inversion. Experimental results on steel plates with simulated corrosion are presented as well. It is worth noting that results are improved by performing PPT on reconstructed (synthetic) rather than on raw thermal data.

Enacting competitiveness: an empirical investigation

The paper draws from three case studies of regional construction firms operating in the UK. The case studies provide new insights into the ways in which such firms strive to remain competitive. Empirical data was derived from multiple interactions with senior personnel from with each firm. Data collection methods included semi-structured interviews, informal interactions, archival research, and workshops. The initial research question was informed by existing resource-based theories of competitiveness and an extensive review of constructionspecific literature. However, subsequent emergent empirical findings progressively pointed towards the need to mobilise alternative theoretical models that emphasise localised learning and embeddedness. The findings point towards the importance of de-centralised structures that enable multiple business units to become embedded within localised markets. A significant degree of autonomy is essential to facilitate entrepreneurial behaviour. In essence, sustained competitiveness was found to rest on the way de-centralised business units enact ongoing processes of localised learning. Once local business units have become embedded within localised markets, the essential challenge is how to encourage continued entrepreneurial behaviour while maintaining some degree of centralised control and coordination. This presents a number of tensions and challenges which play out differently across each of the three case studies.

Multiple-scattering in radar systems: a review

Although extensively studied within the lidar community, the multiple scattering phenomenon has always been considered a rare curiosity by radar meteorologists. Up to few years ago its appearance has only been associated with two- or three-body-scattering features (e.g. hail flares and mirror images) involving highly reflective surfaces. Recent atmospheric research aimed at better understanding of the water cycle and the role played by clouds and precipitation in affecting the Earth's climate has driven the deployment of high frequency radars in space. Examples are the TRMM 13.5 GHz, the CloudSat 94 GHz, the upcoming EarthCARE 94 GHz, and the GPM dual 13-35 GHz radars. These systems are able to detect the vertical distribution of hydrometeors and thus provide crucial feedbacks for radiation and climate studies. The shift towards higher frequencies increases the sensitivity to hydrometeors, improves the spatial resolution and reduces the size and weight of the radar systems. On the other hand, higher frequency radars are affected by stronger extinction, especially in the presence of large precipitating particles (e.g. raindrops or hail particles), which may eventually drive the signal below the minimum detection threshold. In such circumstances the interpretation of the radar equation via the single scattering approximation may be problematic. Errors will be large when the radiation emitted from the radar after interacting more than once with the medium still contributes substantially to the received power. This is the case if the transport mean-free-path becomes comparable with the instrument footprint (determined by the antenna beam-width and the platform altitude). This situation resembles to what has already been experienced in lidar observations, but with a predominance of wide- versus small-angle scattering events. At millimeter wavelengths, hydrometeors diffuse radiation rather isotropically compared to the visible or near infrared region where scattering is predominantly in the forward direction. A complete understanding of radiation transport modeling and data analysis methods under wide-angle multiple scattering conditions is mandatory for a correct interpretation of echoes observed by space-borne millimeter radars. This paper reviews the status of research in this field. Different numerical techniques currently implemented to account for higher order scattering are reviewed and their weaknesses and strengths highlighted. Examples of simulated radar backscattering profiles are provided with particular emphasis given to situations in which the multiple scattering contributions become comparable or overwhelm the single scattering signal. We show evidences of multiple scattering effects from air-borne and from CloudSat observations, i.e. unique signatures which cannot be explained by single scattering theory. Ideas how to identify and tackle the multiple scattering effects are discussed. Finally perspectives and suggestions for future work are outlined. This work represents a reference-guide for studies focused at modeling the radiation transport and at interpreting data from high frequency space-borne radar systems that probe highly opaque scattering media such as thick ice clouds or precipitating clouds.

Investigation of liquid MALDI and optimization for instrument tuning and quantitative measurements

The success of Matrix-assisted laser desorption / ionisation (MALDI) in fields such as proteomics has partially but not exclusively been due to the development of improved data acquisition and sample preparation techniques. This has been required to overcome some of the short comings of the commonly used solid-state MALDI matrices such as - cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA) and 2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid (DHB). Solid state matrices form crystalline samples with highly inhomogeneous topography and morphology which results in large fluctuations in analyte signal intensity from spot to spot and positions within the spot. This means that efficient tuning of the mass spectrometer can be impeded and the use of MALDI MS for quantitative measurements is severely impeded. Recently new MALDI liquid matrices have been introduced which promise to be an effective alternative to crystalline matrices. Generally the liquid matrices comprise either ionic liquid matrices (ILMs) or a usually viscous liquid matrix which is doped with a UV lightabsorbing chromophore [1-3]. The advantages are that the droplet surface is smooth and relatively uniform with the analyte homogeneously distributed within. They have the ability to replenish a sampling position between shots negating the need to search for sample hot-spots. Also the liquid nature of the matrix allows for the use of additional additives to change the environment to which the analyte is added.

Refinement of the Clinical Scenario Evaluation Framework for Assessment of Competing Development Strategies with an Application to Multiple Sclerosis

When competing strategies for development programs, clinical trial designs, or data analysis methods exist, the alternatives need to be evaluated in a systematic way to facilitate informed decision making. Here we describe a refinement of the recently proposed clinical scenario evaluation framework for the assessment of competing strategies. The refinement is achieved by subdividing key elements previously proposed into new categories, distinguishing between quantities that can be estimated from preexisting data and those that cannot and between aspects under the control of the decision maker from those that are determined by external constraints. The refined framework is illustrated by an application to a design project for an adaptive seamless design for a clinical trial in progressive multiple sclerosis.