Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Incorporation of a physically based melt pond scheme into the sea ice component of a climate model

The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2005 and 2007. These minima have not been predicted in the IPCC AR4 report, suggesting that the sea ice component of climate models should more realistically represent the processes controlling the sea ice mass balance. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds accumulate on the surface of sea ice from snow and sea ice melt and their presence reduces the albedo of the ice cover, leading to further melt. Toward the end of the melt season, melt ponds cover up to 50% of the sea ice surface. We have developed a melt pond evolution theory. Here, we have incorporated this melt pond theory into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, which has required us to include the refreezing of melt ponds. We present results showing that the presence, or otherwise, of a representation of melt ponds has a significant effect on the predicted sea ice thickness and extent. We also present a sensitivity study to uncertainty in the sea ice permeability, number of thickness categories in the model representation, meltwater redistribution scheme, and pond albedo. We conclude with a recommendation that our melt pond scheme is included in sea ice models, and the number of thickness categories should be increased and concentrated at lower thicknesses.

Impact of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice simulations from 1990 to 2007

The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2007 and 2011 and climate models did not predict this decline. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds form on Arctic sea ice during the melting season and their presence affects the heat and mass balances of the ice cover, mainly by decreasing the value of the surface albedo by up to 20%. We have developed a melt pond model suitable for forecasting the presence of melt ponds based on sea ice conditions. This model has been incorporated into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, the sea ice component of several IPCC climate models. Simulations for the period 1990 to 2007 are in good agreement with observed ice concentration. In comparison to simulations without ponds, the September ice volume is nearly 40% lower. Sensitivity studies within the range of uncertainty reveal that, of the parameters pertinent to the present melt pond parameterization and for our prescribed atmospheric and oceanic forcing, variations of optical properties and the amount of snowfall have the strongest impact on sea ice extent and volume. We conclude that melt ponds will play an increasingly important role in the melting of the Arctic ice cover and their incorporation in the sea ice component of Global Circulation Models is essential for accurate future sea ice forecasts.

Authoriality in poetic translation. The case of Amelia Rosselli's practice

This article provides a historical and theoretical contextualization of Amelia Rosselli's practice of translation. Some hitherto neglected Rosselli translations from John Berryman will be examined to ascertain the role played by translation in her multilingual oeuvre. My analysis builds upon recent explorations of translingual authors' translating practice informed by Deleuze and Guattari's seminal Kafka: pour une littérature mineure. It aims to achieve an understanding of the aesthetic of Rosselli's trilingualism and the function of translation within the author's minorizing project.

Back to the margins in search of the core: "Foreign Land"'s geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial center, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift which provides a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Rather than as a former empire, Portugal is defined by its situation at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of “core” or “center” are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogue combines Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

Genome-wide association mapping to candidate polymorphism resolution in the unsequenced barley genome

Although commonplace in human disease genetics, genome-wide association (GWA) studies have only relatively recently been applied to plants. Using 32 phenotypes in the inbreeding crop barley, we report GWA mapping of 15 morphological traits across ∼500 cultivars genotyped with 1,536 SNPs. In contrast to the majority of human GWA studies, we observe high levels of linkage disequilibrium within and between chromosomes. Despite this, GWA analysis readily detected common alleles of high penetrance. To investigate the potential of combining GWA mapping with comparative analysis to resolve traits to candidate polymorphism level in unsequenced genomes, we fine-mapped a selected phenotype (anthocyanin pigmentation) within a 140-kb interval containing three genes. Of these, resequencing the putative anthocyanin pathway gene HvbHLH1 identified a deletion resulting in a premature stop codon upstream of the basic helix-loop-helix domain, which was diagnostic for lack of anthocyanin in our association and biparental mapping populations. The methodology described here is transferable to species with limited genomic resources, providing a paradigm for reducing the threshold of map-based cloning in unsequenced crops.

Characterization of the complex locus of bean encoding polygalacturonase-inhibiting proteins reveals subfunctionalization for defense against fungi and insects.

Polygalacturonase-inhibiting proteins (PGIPs) are extracellular plant inhibitors of fungal endopolygalacturonases (PGs) that belong to the superfamily of Leu-rich repeat proteins. We have characterized the full complement of pgip genes in the bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) genotype BAT93. This comprises four clustered members that span a 50-kb region and, based on their similarity, form two pairs (Pvpgip1/Pvpgip2 and Pvpgip3/Pvpgip4). Characterization of the encoded products revealed both partial redundancy and subfunctionalization against fungal-derived PGs. Notably, the pair PvPGIP3/PvPGIP4 also inhibited PGs of two mirid bugs (Lygus rugulipennis and Adelphocoris lineolatus). Characterization of Pvpgip genes of Pinto bean showed variations limited to single synonymous substitutions or small deletions. A three-amino acid deletion encompassing a residue previously identified as crucial for recognition of PG of Fusarium moniliforme was responsible for the inability of BAT93 PvPGIP2 to inhibit this enzyme. Consistent with the large variations observed in the promoter sequences, reverse transcription-PCR expression analysis revealed that the different family members differentially respond to elicitors, wounding, and salicylic acid. We conclude that both biochemical and regulatory redundancy and subfunctionalization of pgip genes are important for the adaptation of plants to pathogenic fungi and phytophagous insects.

"La promessa d'un semplice linguaggio". Lingua e stile nella poesia di Amelia Rosselli

La poesia di Amelia Rosselli costituisce uno dei fenomeni linguistico-espressivi più complessi della poesia italiana del secondo Novecento. Percorsa da tensioni stilistiche ed espressive peculiari che l'hanno resa uno dei vertici dello sperimentalismo plurilingue novecentesco, l'opera rosselliana costituisce, nel suo insieme, una poderosa meditazione sull'alienazione e sulle possibilità di esprimere a pieno il proprio disagio esistenziale se non attraverso la creazione di una lingua che sfida, al medesimo tempo, convenzioni sintattiche, grammaticali, e grafiche di ben tre sistemi linguistici, e che impone al lettore, in virtù di un trilinguismo biograficamente motivato, la flessuosità di una logica del senso plurima e simultanea. Scopo del volume è offrire un contributo sistematico alla comprensione di un'opera poetica sulla quale ancora gravano radicati fraintendimenti e pervicaci clichés critici.

Back to the margins in search of the core: foreign land's geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial centre, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift aimed at providing a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Even Portugal is defined by its location at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of ‘core’ or ‘centre’ are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogues combine Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

A novel function of the proneural factor Ascl1 in progenitor proliferation identified by genome-wide characterization of its targets

Proneural genes such as Ascl1 are known to promote cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation when expressed in neural progenitor cells. The mechanisms by which proneural genes activate neurogenesis--and, in particular, the genes that they regulate--however, are mostly unknown. We performed a genome-wide characterization of the transcriptional targets of Ascl1 in the embryonic brain and in neural stem cell cultures by location analysis and expression profiling of embryos overexpressing or mutant for Ascl1. The wide range of molecular and cellular functions represented among these targets suggests that Ascl1 directly controls the specification of neural progenitors as well as the later steps of neuronal differentiation and neurite outgrowth. Surprisingly, Ascl1 also regulates the expression of a large number of genes involved in cell cycle progression, including canonical cell cycle regulators and oncogenic transcription factors. Mutational analysis in the embryonic brain and manipulation of Ascl1 activity in neural stem cell cultures revealed that Ascl1 is indeed required for normal proliferation of neural progenitors. This study identified a novel and unexpected activity of the proneural gene Ascl1, and revealed a direct molecular link between the phase of expansion of neural progenitors and the subsequent phases of cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation.

A continuum model of melt pond evolution on Arctic sea ice

[1] During the Northern Hemisphere summer, absorbed solar radiation melts snow and the upper surface of Arctic sea ice to generate meltwater that accumulates in ponds. The melt ponds reduce the albedo of the sea ice cover during the melting season, with a significant impact on the heat and mass budget of the sea ice and the upper ocean. We have developed a model, designed to be suitable for inclusion into a global circulation model (GCM), which simulates the formation and evolution of the melt pond cover. In order to be compatible with existing GCM sea ice models, our melt pond model builds upon the existing theory of the evolution of the sea ice thickness distribution. Since this theory does not describe the topography of the ice cover, which is crucial to determining the location, extent, and depth of individual ponds, we have needed to introduce some assumptions. We describe our model, present calculations and a sensitivity analysis, and discuss our results.