Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Attenuating mutations in the influenza virus genome which may increase the safety of vaccine production

Influenza virus epidemics occur on an annual basis and cause severe disease in the very young and old. The vaccine administered to high-risk groups is generated by amplifying reassortant viruses, with chronologically relevant viral surface antigens, in eggs. Every 20 years or so, influenza pandemics occur causing widespread fatality in all age groups. These viruses display novel viral surface antigens acquired from a zoonotic source, and vaccination against them poses new issues since production of large amounts of a respiratory virus containing novel surface antigens could be dangerous for those involved in manufacture. To minimise risks, it is advisable to use a virus whose genetic backbone is highly attenuated in man. Traditionally, the A/PR/8/34 strain of virus is used, however, the genetic basis of its attenuation is unclear. Cold-adapted (CA) strains of the influenza virus are all based on the H2N2 subtype, itself a virus with pandemic potential, and again the genetic basis of temperature sensitivity is not yet established. Reverse genetics technology allows us to engineer designer influenza viruses to order. Using this technology, we have been investigating mutations in several different gene segments to effectively attenuate potential vaccine strains allowing the safe production of vaccine to protect against the next pandemic. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parallel performance and scalability experiments with the Danish Eulerian Model on the EPCC supercomputers

The Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) is a powerful air pollution model, designed to calculate the concentrations of various dangerous species over a large geographical region (e.g. Europe). It takes into account the main physical and chemical processes between these species, the actual meteorological conditions, emissions, etc.. This is a huge computational task and requires significant resources of storage and CPU time. Parallel computing is essential for the efficient practical use of the model. Some efficient parallel versions of the model were created over the past several years. A suitable parallel version of DEM by using the Message Passing Interface library (AIPI) was implemented on two powerful supercomputers of the EPCC - Edinburgh, available via the HPC-Europa programme for transnational access to research infrastructures in EC: a Sun Fire E15K and an IBM HPCx cluster. Although the implementation is in principal, the same for both supercomputers, few modifications had to be done for successful porting of the code on the IBM HPCx cluster. Performance analysis and parallel optimization was done next. Results from bench marking experiments will be presented in this paper. Another set of experiments was carried out in order to investigate the sensitivity of the model to variation of some chemical rate constants in the chemical submodel. Certain modifications of the code were necessary to be done in accordance with this task. The obtained results will be used for further sensitivity analysis Studies by using Monte Carlo simulation.

D. H. Lawrence and the publication of Look! We Have Come Through!

In 1917 D.H. Lawrence's whole outlook on the social and cultural environment of his country was embodied in his attitude towards the literary marketplace. The suppression of The Rainbow in 1915 and his opposition to the war contributed to his feeling of detachment from what he called ‘the bourgeois world, the world which controls press, publication and all’. Presenting new archival evidence, this article examines the publishing history of the poetry volume Look! We Have Come Through, issued by Chatto & Windus in 1917. Closer examination of the motives of the individual editors involved in the production of the volume reveals why Lawrence was required to make changes to his text but also why the firm were eager to publish a volume that was to have little commercial impact. Issued at a critical moment in Lawrence's relationship with the marketplace, and in the history of literary modernism, the episode shows how, in spite of general hostility to his work, there were forces in the mainstream publishing market that were keen to embrace modern literary forms and take risks with the work of authors whose subject-matter was challenging and potentially dangerous.

Return of the 'Angry Woman': authenticating female physical action in contemporary cinema

In 1999, Elizabeth Hills pointed up the challenges that physically active women on film still posed, in cultural terms, and in relation to certain branches of feminist theory . Since then, a remarkable number of emphatically active female heroes have appeared on screen, from 'Charlie’s Angels' to 'Resident Evil', 'Aeon Flux', and the 'Matrix' and 'X-Men' trilogies. Nevertheless, in a contemporary Western culture frequently characterised as postfeminist, these seem to be the ‘acceptable face’ – and body – of female empowerment: predominantly white, heterosexual, often scantily clad, with the traditional hero’s toughness and resolve re-imagined in terms of gender-biased notions of decorum: grace and dignity alongside perfect hair and make-up, and a body that does not display unsightly markers of physical exertion. The homogeneity of these representations is worth investigating in relation to critical claims that valorise such air-brushed, high-kicking 'action babes' for their combination of sexiness and strength, and the feminist and postfeminist discourses that are refracted through such readings. Indeed, this arguably ‘safe’ set of depictions, dovetailing so neatly with certain postfeminist notions of ‘having it all’, suppresses particular kinds of spectacles in relation to the active female body: images of physical stress and extension, biological consequences of violence and dangerous motivations are all absent. I argue that the untidy female exertions refused in popular “action babe” representations are now erupting into view in a number of other contemporaneous movies – 'Kill Bill' Vols 1 & 2, 'Monster', and 'Hard Candy' – that mark the return of that which is repressed in the mainstream vision of female power – that is, a more viscerally realistic physicality, rage and aggression. As such, these films engage directly with the issue of how to represent violent female agency. This chapter explores what is at stake at a representational level and in terms of spectatorial processes of identification in the return of this particularly visceral rendering of the female avenger.

Iron homeostasis and management of oxidative stress response in bacteria

Iron is both an essential nutrient for the growth of microorganisms, as well as a dangerous metal due to its capacity to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) via the Fenton reaction. For these reasons, bacteria must tightly control the uptake and storage of iron in a manner that restricts the build-up of ROS. Therefore, it is not surprising to find that the control of iron homeostasis and responses to oxidative stress are coordinated. The mechanisms concerned with these processes, and the interactions involved, are the subject of this review.

Last charge of the knights? Iraq, Afghanistan and the special relationship

At the heart of the ‘special relationship’ ideology, there is supposed to be a grand bargain. In exchange for paying the ‘blood price’ as America's ally, Britain will be rewarded with exceptional influence over American foreign policy and its strategic behaviour. Soldiers and statesman continue to articulate this idea. Since 9/11, the notion of Britain playing ‘Greece’ to America's ‘Rome’ gained new life thanks to Anglophiles on both sides of the Atlantic. One potent version of this ideology was that the more seasoned British would teach Americans how to fight ‘small wars’ in Iraq and Afghanistan, thereby bolstering their role as tutor to the superpower. Britain does derive benefits from the Anglo-American alliance and has made momentous contributions to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Yet British solidarity and sacrifices have not purchased special influence in Washington. This is partly due to Atlanticist ideology, which sets Britain unrealistic standards by which it is judged, and partly because the notion of ‘special influence’ is misleading as it loses sight of the complexities of American policy-making. The overall result of expeditionary wars has been to strain British credibility in American eyes and to display its lack of consistent influence both over high policy and the design and execution of US military campaigns. While there may be good arguments in favour of the UK continuing its efforts in Afghanistan, the notion that the war fortifies Britain's vicarious world status is a dangerous illusion that leads to repeated overstretch and disappointment. Now that Britain is in the foothills of a strategic defence review, it is important that the British abandon this false consciousness.

Expectation versus provision in the management and use of urban open space

This paper discusses the implications of the shifting cultural significance of public open space in urban areas. In particular, it focuses on the increasing dysfunction between people's expectations of that space and its actual provision and management. In doing so, the paper applies Lefebvre's ideas of spatiality to the evident paradigm shift from 'public' to 'private' culture, with its associated commodification of previously public space. While developing the construct of paradigm shift, the paper recognises that the former political notions inherent in the provision of public space remain in evidence. So whereas public parks were formerly seen as spaces of confrontation between the 'rationality' of public order as the 'irrationality' of individual leisure pursuits, they are now increasingly seen, particularly 'out of hours', as the domain of the dispossessed, to be defined and policed as 'dangerous'. Where once people were welcomed into public open spaces as a means of 'educating' them in good, acceptable, leisure practices, therefore, they are now increasingly excluded, but for the same ostensible reasons. Building on survey work undertaken in Reading, Berkshire, the paper illustrates how communities can become separated from 'their' space, leaving them with the overriding impression that they have been 'short-changed' in terms of both the provision and the management of urban open space. Rather than the intimacy of local space for local people, therefore, the paper argues that parks have become externalised places, increasingly responding to commercial definitions of culture and what is 'public'. Central urban open spaces are therefore increasingly becoming sites of stratification, signification of a consumer-constructed citizenship and valorisation of public life as a legitimate element of the market surface of town and city centres.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures1 and sea level rise due to thermal expansion2 or the melting of large ice sheets3, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate–vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 °C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

The rough guide to the Moon and Mars

Space is a dangerous place for humans, once we step beyond the rotection of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Galactic cosmic rays and bursts of charged particles from the Sun damaging to health happen with alarming frequency – the Apollo astronauts were very lucky. Understanding the physics of radiation from distinct sources in space will be useful to help future space voyagers plan journeys in greater safety, and produce effective shields for these unavoidable events on journeys to Mars or beyond.

Travail des enfants et droit à l’éducation au Burkina Faso: L’exemple de la carrière de Pissy

Cet article décrit et analyse le travail des enfants dans une carrière de granit d’un quartier de la ville de Ouagadougou, interroge le rapport entre l’école et le travail du point de vue des acteurs du site pour apprécier l’argument de la scolarisation comme solution alternative au travail des enfants. Les données proviennent d’une enquête réalisée dans le cadre de notre recherche doctorale au Burkina Faso, de février à avril 2009, dont la carrière de Pissy a été un des terrains d’enquête1. Les enquêtés sont constitués de parents et de leurs enfants âgés de moins de 16 ans ayant des trajectoires différentes : non scolarisés,scolarisés, déscolarisés et à la fois écoliers et travailleurs. Les personnes ont été choisies aléatoirement selon leur accord et disponibilité, en variant leur emplacement. L’approche choisie privilégie le point de vue des différents acteurs du site,l’analyse de leurs discours et l’observation de leurs pratiques de travail. La prise en compte du point de vue des enfants s’appuie sur la perspective théorique développée par James & Prout (1997), où les enfants sont des acteurs compétents dans la sphère du travail et de la vie sociale. L’article présente d’abord le processus d’institutionnalisation de l’école et la situation du travail des enfants au Burkina Faso, puis décrit les logiques autour du travail des enfants dans la carrière en montrant que celui-ci n’est pas seulement lié à la nécessité économique. Enfin, il confronte les alternatives au travaildes enfants invoquées par les enfants et leurs parents aux solutions d’éducation proposées par l’état et la société civile. This article is about a particular case of children in working situation: children crushing the granite in the quarry of Pissy. Their working conditions are considered as dangerous by national and international legal texts. This article aims to grasp the experience of children who work in this frame in order to test the hypothesis according to which schooling would be an effective tool of struggle against child labour. The fieldwork reveals that child labour in the quarry is not only guided by economic aspects. The wish of the parents (and of some children and teenagers) to find another job for working children reopen the debate on “the right to work” for children.

The application of social marketing in reducing road traffic accidents amoung young male drivers: an investigation using physical fear threat appeals

There were 338 road fatalities on Irish roads in 2007. Research in 2007 by the Road Safety Authority in Ireland states that young male drivers (17 – 25 years) are seven times more likely to be killed on Irish roads than other road users. The car driver fatality rate was found to be approximately 10 times higher for young male drivers than for female drivers in 2000. Young male drivers in particular demonstrate a high proclivity for risky driving behaviours. These risky behaviours include drink driving, speeding, rug-driving and engaging in aggressive driving. Speed is the single largest contributing factor to road deaths in Ireland. Approximately 40% of fatal accidents are caused by excessive or inappropriate speed. This study focuses on how dangerous driving behaviours may be addressed through social marketing. This study analyses the appropriate level of fear that needs to be induced in order to change young male driving behaviour.

Amor intellectualis diaboli

An essay on love and liberty in the writings of Gillian Rose, Marquis de Sade, Max Horkheimer and Theodor W. Adorno, written in response to the following provocation: "Encore un effort. A banderole publicitaire carries the breathless descriptions of the new fashions for 1968, when anything goes and details place the accent on this or that part of the body and its adornment: a pair of shoes that come off in a struggle, for example, the heel of one snapped off; a striking checked shirt, with two buttons undone; a light-coloured trench coat (perfect for a May day); a blouson-style jacket that allows easy freedom of movement; place casual slacks worn with an ankle boot. Beauty is in the streets as fashion becomes democratic (or so say the houses of haute couture), while the philosopher of the boudoir extorts us once again to make an effort if we wish to be republicans. Here, to an assembled crowd of sensitive men and women, which petit-maitre or dangerous man of principles would suggest that the only moral system to reinforce political revolution is that of libertinage, the revenge of nature's course against the aberrations of society?"

Remote law-making? American drone strikes and the development of jus ad bellum

There is growing concern amongst international lawyers that the United States’ use of unmanned armed vehicles to conduct lethal targeting operations against non-state actors is setting a dangerous precedent for the future and might lead to an erosion of important rules under international law. Taking seriously these concerns, this article examines in more detail the potential precedent created by the US through its lethal drone strikes and the provided justifications, for the purpose of the development of jus ad bellum. In identifying the claims made by the US under different theories of customary international law as qualified practice or expressions of opinio juris that can lead to an alteration of the law should they be accepted by the international community, this article takes a first step towards a more extensive debate on the potential effects of the US drone strikes on the development of international law.