Vertical and horizontal processes in the global atmosphere and the maximum entropy production conjecture

The objective of this paper is to reconsider the Maximum Entropy Production conjecture (MEP) in the context of a very simple two-dimensional zonal-vertical climate model able to represent the total material entropy production due at the same time to both horizontal and vertical heat fluxes. MEP is applied first to a simple four-box model of climate which accounts for both horizontal and vertical material heat fluxes. It is shown that, under condition of fixed insolation, a MEP solution is found with reasonably realistic temperature and heat fluxes, thus generalising results from independent two-box horizontal or vertical models. It is also shown that the meridional and the vertical entropy production terms are independently involved in the maximisation and thus MEP can be applied to each subsystem with fixed boundary conditions. We then extend the four-box model by increasing its resolution, and compare it with GCM output. A MEP solution is found which is fairly realistic as far as the horizontal large scale organisation of the climate is concerned whereas the vertical structure looks to be unrealistic and presents seriously unstable features. This study suggest that the thermal meridional structure of the atmosphere is predicted fairly well by MEP once the insolation is given but the vertical structure of the atmosphere cannot be predicted satisfactorily by MEP unless constraints are imposed to represent the determination of longwave absorption by water vapour and clouds as a function of the state of the climate. Furthermore an order-of-magnitude estimate of contributions to the material entropy production due to horizontal and vertical processes within the climate system is provided by using two different methods. In both cases we found that approximately 40 mW m−2 K−1 of material entropy production is due to vertical heat transport and 5–7 mW m−2 K−1 to horizontal heat transport

NANA: Novel assessment of nutrition and ageing

Purpose NANA is a 3-year project using sensitively-designed technology to improve data collection and integrate information on nutrition, physical and cognitive function and mental health to identify individuals at risk of under-nourishment and improve targeting of interventions. This research will also improve our understanding of the interactions between these factors, in order to better medical treatment and social provision. The toolkit has potential for commercial development for additional segments of the population. Method This is a multi-disciplinary program involving psychology, nutrition, engineering and software engineering. The first phase is a user needs analysis and will involve consulting with a broad cross-section of older people, caregivers, and health professionals, to establish what technical approaches would be useful and acceptable. The second phase focuses on the development of an integrated measurement toolkit. There are three inter-related subsections: (i) an iterative program to develop the assessment technology, (ii) techniques for dietary assessment in older people, and (iii) a parallel investigation of measures of cognition and mental health in older people. It includes a full validation of the assessment toolkit and will comprise a comparison of the new, integrated assessment with traditional 'pen and paper' methods with volunteers having the equipment installed in their homes.

Oxidoalkoxidovanadium(V) complexes: synthesis, characterization and comparison of X-ray crystal structures

The reaction of VO(acac)(2) with the ONO-chelator obtained by the condensation of salicylaldehyde with 2-hydroxybenzoylhydrazine (H2L) in a monohydric alcohol. (ROH) medium produces VO(OR)L]-type oxidoalkoxido complexes (1-7) where R = Me, Pr-n, Pr-i, Bu-n, Bu-i, Bu-t and (n)Pen. All the complexes show the metal atom to have a five-coordinate square pyramidal environment, although in some complexes there is an additional weak V center dot center dot center dot O interaction in the sixth axial position. In acetonitrile medium and in the presence of a cis-diol (ethylene glycol), H2L reacts with VO(acac)(2) to form a six-coordinate complex, [VO(OCH2CH2OH)L] (8). When the reaction is carried out in acetonitrile medium in the presence of 2-amino ethanol, a completely different type of product containing the square pyramidal complex anion [VO2L](-) associated with the cation [NH3CH2CH2OH](+) is obtained. It was noted previously that on being reacted with monodentate nitrogen donor bases B (which are stronger than pyridine), the [VO(OR)L] complexes react to form the same complex anion [VO2L](-) associated with the corresponding cation [BH](+). The coordination environment around the V(V) acceptor center of the water soluble [BH](+)[VO2L](-)satisfies one of the several requirements for an efficient antidiabetic vanadium species such as water solubility, nature of donor atoms of the ligand and their disposition around the VO2+ acceptor center.

Auditory distraction eliminates retrieval induced forgetting: implications for the processing of unattended sound

The Retrieval-Induced Forgetting (RIF) paradigm includes three phases: (a) study/encoding of category exemplars, (b) practicing retrieval of a sub-set of those category exemplars, and (c) recall of all exemplars. At the final recall phase, recall of items that belong to the same categories as those items that undergo retrieval-practice, but that do not undergo retrieval-practice, is impaired. The received view is that this is because retrieval of target category-exemplars (e.g., ‘Tiger’ in the category Four-legged animal) requires inhibition of non-target category-exemplars (e.g., ‘Dog’ and ‘Lion’) that compete for retrieval. Here, we used the RIF paradigm to investigate whether ignoring auditory items during the retrieval-practice phase modulates the inhibitory process. In two experiments, RIF was present when retrieval-practice was conducted in quiet and when conducted in the presence of spoken words that belonged to a category other than that of the items that were targets for retrieval-practice. In contrast, RIF was abolished when words that either were identical to the retrieval-practice words or were only semantically related to the retrieval-practice words were presented as background speech. The results suggest that the act of ignoring speech can reduce inhibition of the non-practiced category-exemplars, thereby eliminating RIF, but only when the spoken words are competitors for retrieval (i.e., belong to the same semantic category as the to-be-retrieved items).

Interface dynamics in planar neural field models

Neural field models describe the coarse-grained activity of populations of interacting neurons. Because of the laminar structure of real cortical tissue they are often studied in two spatial dimensions, where they are well known to generate rich patterns of spatiotemporal activity. Such patterns have been interpreted in a variety of contexts ranging from the understanding of visual hallucinations to the generation of electroencephalographic signals. Typical patterns include localized solutions in the form of traveling spots, as well as intricate labyrinthine structures. These patterns are naturally defined by the interface between low and high states of neural activity. Here we derive the equations of motion for such interfaces and show, for a Heaviside firing rate, that the normal velocity of an interface is given in terms of a non-local Biot-Savart type interaction over the boundaries of the high activity regions. This exact, but dimensionally reduced, system of equations is solved numerically and shown to be in excellent agreement with the full nonlinear integral equation defining the neural field. We develop a linear stability analysis for the interface dynamics that allows us to understand the mechanisms of pattern formation that arise from instabilities of spots, rings, stripes and fronts. We further show how to analyze neural field models with linear adaptation currents, and determine the conditions for the dynamic instability of spots that can give rise to breathers and traveling waves.

Rossby wave-breaking analysis of explosive cyclones in the Euro-Atlantic sector

The two-way relationship between Rossby Wave-Breaking (RWB) and intensification of extra tropical cyclones is analysed over the Euro-Atlantic sector. In particular, the timing, intensity and location of cyclone development are related to RWB occurrences. For this purpose, two potential-temperature based indices are used to detect and classify anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB episodes from ERA-40 Re-Analysis data. Results show that explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic (NA) is fostered by enhanced occurrence of RWB on days prior to the cyclone’s maximum intensification. Under such conditions, the eddy-driven jet stream is accelerated over the NA, thus enhancing conditions for cyclogenesis. For explosive cyclogenesis over the eastern NA, enhanced cyclonic RWB over eastern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over the sub-tropical NA are observed. Typically only one of these is present in any given case, with the RWB over eastern Greenland being more frequent than its southern counterpart. This leads to an intensification of the jet over the eastern NA and enhanced probability of windstorms reaching Western Europe. Explosive cyclones evolving under simultaneous RWB on both sides of the jet feature a higher mean intensity and deepening rates than cyclones preceded by a single RWB event. Explosive developments over the western NA are typically linked to a single area of enhanced cyclonic RWB over western Greenland. Here, the eddy-driven jet is accelerated over the western NA. Enhanced occurrence of cyclonic RWB over southern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over Europe is also observed after explosive cyclogenesis, potentially leading to the onset of Scandinavian Blocking. However, only very intense developments have a considerable influence on the large-scale atmospheric flow. Non-explosive cyclones depict no sign of enhanced RWB over the whole NA area. We conclude that the links between RWB and cyclogenesis over the Euro-Atlantic sector are sensitive to the cyclone’s maximum intensity, deepening rate and location.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Use of pelleted sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata) for natural control of coccidia and gastrointestinal nematodes in weaned goats

Infection with Eimeria spp. (coccidia) can be devastating in goats, particularly for young, recently-weaned kids, resulting in diarrhea, dehydration, and even death. Feeding dried sericea lespedeza [SL; Lespedeza cuneata (Dum.-Cours.) G. Don.] to young goats has been reported to reduce the effects of internal parasites, including gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) but there have been no reports of the effects of feeding this forage on Eimeria spp. in goats. Two confinement feeding experiments were completed on recently-weaned intact bucks (24 Kiko-cross, Exp. 1; 20 Spanish, Exp. 2) to determine effects of SL pellets on an established infection of GIN and coccidia. The bucks were assigned to 1 of 2 (Exp. 1) or 3 (Exp. 2) treatment groups based upon the number of Eimeria spp. oocysts per gram (OPG) of feces. In Exp. 1, the kids were fed 1 of 2 pelleted rations ad libitum; 90% SL leaf meal + 10% of a liquid molasses/lignin binder mix and a commercial pellet with 12% crude protein (CP) and 24% acid detergent fiber (n = 12/treatment group, 2 animals/pen). For Exp. 2, treatment groups were fed 1) 90% SL leaf meal pellets from leaves stored 3 years (n = 7), 2) 90% SL pellets from leaf meal stored less than 6 months, (n = 7), and the commercial pellets (n = 6) ad libitum. For both trials, fecal and blood samples were taken from individual animals every 7 days for 28 days to determine OPG and GIN eggs per gram (EPG) and packed cell volume (PCV), respectively. In Exp. 2, feces were scored for consistency (1 = solid pellets, 5 = slurry) as an indicator of coccidiosis. In Exp. 1, EPG (P < 0.001) and OPG (P < 0.01) were reduced by 78.7 and 96.9%, respectively, 7 days after initiation of feeding in goats on the SL pellet diet compared with animals fed the control pellets. The OPG and EPG remained lower in treatment than control animals until the end of the trial. In Exp. 2, goats fed new and old SL leaf meal pellets had 66.2 and 79.2% lower (P < 0.05) EPG and 92.2 and 91.2% lower (P < 0.05) OPG, respectively, than control animals within 7 days, and these differences were maintained or increased throughout the trial. After 4 weeks of pellet feeding in Exp. 2, fecal scores were lower (P < 0.01) in both SL-fed groups compared with control animals, indicating fewer signs of coccidiosis. There was no effect of diet on PCV values throughout either experiment. Dried, pelleted SL has excellent potential as a natural anti-coccidial feed for weaned goats.

Cocrystalline copolyimides of poly(ethylene 2,6-naphthalate)

Copolycondensation of N,N′-bis(2-hydroxyethyl)-biphenyl-3,4,3′,4′-tetracarboxylic diimide (5–25 mol %) with bis(2-hydroxyethyl)-2,6-naphthalate affords a series of cocrystalline, poly(ethylene 2,6-naphthalate) (PEN)-based poly(ester imide)s. The glass transition temperature rises with the level of comonomer, from 118 °C for PEN itself to 148 °C for the 25% diimide copolymer. X-ray powder and fiber diffraction studies show that, when 5 mol % or more of diimide is present, the α-PEN crystal structure is replaced by a new crystalline phase arising from isomorphic substitution of biphenyldiimide for PEN residues in the polymer crystal lattice. This new phase is provisionally identified as monoclinic, C2/m, with two chains per unit cell, a = 10.56, b = 6.74, c = 13.25 Å, and β = 143.0°.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic oscillation

Intense winter cyclones often lead to hazardous weather over Europe. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong European windstorms. However, the robustness of this relation for cyclones of varying intensities remains largely unexplored. In this paper, the bi-directional relation between the NAO and cyclones impacting Europe is analyzed for the period 1950–2010 focusing on the sensitivity to storm intensity. Evidence is given that explosive (EC) and non-explosive cyclones (NoEC) predominantly develop under different large-scale circulation conditions over the North Atlantic. Whereas NoEC evolve more frequently under negative and neutral NAO phases, the number of EC is larger under a positive NAO phase, typically characterized by an intensified jet toward Western Europe. Important differences are also found on the dynamics of NAO evolution after peak intensity for both cyclone populations.

Climate impact research: beyond patchwork

Despite significant progress in climate impacts research, the narratives that science can presently piece together of a 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-degree warmer world remain fragmentary. Here we briefly review past undertakings to comprehensively characterize and quantify climate impacts based on multi-model approaches. We then report on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), a community-driven effort to systematically compare impacts models across sectors and scales, and to quantify the uncertainties along the chain from greenhouse gas emissions and climate input data to the modelling of climate impacts themselves. We show how ISI-MIP and similar efforts can substantially advance the science relevant to impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, and we outline the steps that need to be taken in order to make the most of available modelling tools. We discuss pertinent limitations of these methods and how they could be tackled. We argue that it is time to consolidate the current patchwork of impacts knowledge through integrated cross-sectoral assessments, and that the climate impacts community is now in a favourable position to do so.

Memo test: standardisation of computerised assessment of auditory verbal short-term memory

Short-term memory (STM) impairments are prevalent in adults with acquired brain injuries. While there are several published tests to assess these impairments, the majority require speech production, e.g. digit span (Wechsler, 1987). This feature may make them unsuitable for people with aphasia and motor speech disorders because of word finding difficulties and speech demands respectively. If patients perceive the speech demands of the test to be high, the may not engage with testing. Furthermore, existing STM tests are mainly ‘pen-and-paper’ tests, which can jeopardise accuracy. To address these shortcomings, we designed and standardised a novel computerised test that does not require speech output and because of the computerised delivery it would enable clinicians identify STM impairments with greater precision than current tests. The matching listening span tasks, similar to the non-normed PALPA 13 (Kay, Lesser & Coltheart, 1992) is used to test short-term memory for serial order of spoken items. Sequences of digits are presented in pairs. The person hears the first sequence, followed by the second sequence and s/he decides whether the two sequences are the same or different. In the computerised test, the sequences are presented in live voice recordings on a portable computer through a software application (Molero Martin, Laird, Hwang & Salis 2013). We collected normative data from healthy older adults (N=22-24) using digits, real words (one- and two-syllables) and non-words (one- and two- syllables). Their performance was scored following two systems. The Highest Span system was the highest span length (e.g. 2-8) at which a participant correctly responded to over 7 out of 10 trials at the highest sequence length. Test re-test reliability was also tested in a subgroup of participants. The test will be available as free of charge for clinicians and researchers to use.

Towards pain-free diagnosis of skin diseases through multiplexed microneedles: biomarker extraction and detection using a highly sensitive blotting method

Immunodiagnostic microneedles provide a novel way to extract protein biomarkers from the skin in a minimally invasive manner for analysis in vitro. The technology could overcome challenges in biomarker analysis specifically in solid tissue, which currently often involves invasive biopsies. This study describes the development of a multiplex immunodiagnostic device incorporating mechanisms to detect multiple antigens simultaneously, as well as internal assay controls for result validation. A novel detection method is also proposed. It enables signal detection specifically at microneedle tips and therefore may aid the construction of depth profiles of skin biomarkers. The detection method can be coupled with computerised densitometry for signal quantitation. The antigen specificity, sensitivity and functional stability of the device were assessed against a number of model biomarkers. Detection and analysis of endogenous antigens (interleukins 1α and 6) from the skin using the device was demonstrated. The results were verified using conventional enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The detection limit of the microneedle device, at ≤10 pg/mL, was at least comparable to conventional plate-based solid-phase enzyme immunoassays.