Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A mechanistic study of cyclic siloxane pyrolyses at low pressures

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) and decamethyl cyclopentasiloxane (D5), and the results interpreted in the context of various kinetic models. In particular, it is shown that the significant pyrolysis products - which include CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6 and SiO - may be satisfactorily accounted for by radical reactions involving dimethylsiloxane (D1), and estimates are made of the various chain lengths for the proposed reactions based on a range of ambient conditions.

Solvent-induced dynamic single-crystal-to-single-crystal transformation of a synthetic peptide-based cyclic compound

Solvent induced single-crystal-to-single-crystal transformation has been demonstrated indicating the dynamic behavior of one dimensional arrays obtained from a self-assembled new synthetic cyclic peptide.

Anharmonic vibrational levels of the two cyclic isomers of SiC3

Using coupled-cluster approach full six-dimensional analytic potential energy surfaces for two cyclic SiC3 isomers [C-C transannular bond (I) and Si-C transannular bond (II)] have been generated and used to calculate anharmonic vibrational wave functions. Several strong low-lying anharmonic resonances have been found. In both isomers already some of the fundamental transitions cannot be described within the harmonic approximation. Adiabatic electron affinities and ionization energies have been calculated as well. The Franck-Condon factors for the photodetachment processes c-SiC3-(I)-> c-SiC3(I) and c-SiC3-(II)-> c-SiC3(II) are reported. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Synthesis of fused cyclic systems containing medium-sized rings through tandem ROM-RCM of norbornene derivatives embedded in a carbohydrate template

A general approach for the synthesis of fused cyclic systems containing medium-sized rings (7-9) has been developed. The key steps involve a diastereoface-selective Diels-Alder reaction of the dienophiles 4a-d attached to a furanosugar with cyclopentadiene and ring opening (ROM)-ring closing metathesis (RCM) of the resulting norbornene derivatives 10a-d and 11a-d. Diels-Alder reaction of the dienophiles 4a-d with cyclopentadiene in the absence of a catalyst produced 10a-d as the major product arising through addition of the diene to the unhindered Si-face. The most interesting and new aspect of the Diels-Alder reaction of these dienophiles is the accessibility of the Re-face that was blocked by the alkenyl chains under Lewis acid catalysis producing the diastereoisomers 11a-d exclusively. The reversal of facial selectivity from an uncatalyzed reaction to a catalyzed one is unprecedented. The observed stereochemical dichotomy is attributed to rotation of the enone moiety along the or bond linking the sugar moiety during formation of the chelate 13. This makes the Re-face of the enone moiety in 4a-d unhindered. Diels-Alder reaction of the carbocyclic analogue 15 under Lewis acid catalysis produced a 1: 1 mixture of the adducts 16 and 17 confirming the participation of sugar ring oxygen in chelate formation. Finally ROM-RCM of 10a-d and 11a-d with Grubbs' catalyst afforded the cis-syn-cis and cis-anti-cis bicyclo-annulated sugars 21a-d and 23a-d, respectively, containing 7-9 membered rings.

Occurrence of ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in a metallo-organic framework formed by spontaneous fixation of CO2

In the reaction of equimolar amounts of copper(II) acetate with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (DPA) in aqueous tetrahydrofuran, in presence of KOH, aerial CO2 is spontaneously fixed to the carbonate anion yielding [Cu(DPA)(CO3)] . 3H(2)O (1). X-ray crystallography shows the presence of zigzag ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in the channels of a chain-like metallo-organic framework. The water ribbons are stabilised by hydrogen bonds to the metallo-organic backbone. Each (H2O)(5) pentamer is approximately planar.

(-)Epicatechin stimulates ERK-dependent cyclic AMP response element activity and up-regulates GluR2 in cortical neurons

Emerging evidence suggests that the cellular actions of flavonoids relate not simply to their antioxidant potential but also to the modulation of protein kinase signalling pathways. We investigated in primary cortical neurons, the ability of the flavan-3-ol, (-)epicatechin, and its human metabolites at physiologically relevant concentrations, to stimulate phosphorylation of the transcription factor cAMP-response element binding protein (CREB), a regulator of neuronal viability and synaptic plasticity. (-)Epicatechin at 100-300 nmol/L stimulated a rapid, extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK)- and PI3K-dependent, increase in CREB phosphorylation. At micromolar concentrations, stimulation was no longer apparent and at the highest concentration tested (30 mu mol/L) (-)epicatechin was inhibitory. (-)Epicatechin also stimulated ERK and Akt phosphorylation with similar bell-shaped concentration-response characteristics. The human metabolite 3 '-O-methyl-(-)epicatechin was as effective as (-)epicatechin at stimulating ERK phosphorylation, but (-)epicatechin glucuronide was inactive. (-)Epicatechin and 3 '-O-methyl-(-)epicatechin treatments (100 nmol/L) increased CRE-luciferase activity in cortical neurons in a partially ERK-dependent manner, suggesting the potential to increase CREB-mediated gene expression. mRNA levels of the glutamate receptor subunit GluR2 increased by 60%, measured 18 h after a 15 min exposure to (-)epicatechin and this translated into an increase in GluR2 protein. Thus, (-)epicatechin has the potential to increase CREB-regulated gene expression and increase GluR2 levels and thus modulate neurotransmission, plasticity and synaptogenesis.

A family study of co-morbidity between generalized social phobia and generalized anxiety disorder in a non-clinic sample

Background: High rates of co-morbidity between Generalized Social Phobia (GSP) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) have been documented. The reason for this is unclear. Family studies are one means of clarifying the nature of co-morbidity between two disorders. Methods: Six models of co-morbidity between GSP and GAD were investigated in a family aggregation study of 403 first-degree relatives of non-clinical probands: 37 with GSP, 22 with GAD, 15 with co-morbid GSP/GAD, and 41 controls with no history of GSP or GAD. Psychiatric data were collected for probands and relatives. Mixed methods (direct and family history interviews) were utilised. Results: Primary contrasts (against controls) found an increased rate of pure GSP in the relatives of both GSP probands and co-morbid GSP/GAD probands, and found relatives of co-morbid GSP/GAD probands to have an increased rate of both pure GAD and comorbid GSP/GAD. Secondary contrasts found (i) increased GSP in the relatives of GSP only probands compared to the relatives of GAD only probands; and (ii) increased GAD in the relatives of co-morbid GSP/GAD probands compared to the relatives of GSP only probands. Limitations: The study did not directly interview all relatives, although the reliability of family history data was assessed. The study was based on an all-female proband sample. The implications of both these limitations are discussed. Conclusions: The results were most consistent with a co-morbidity model indicating independent familial transmission of GSP and GAD. This has clinical implications for the treatment of patients with both disorders. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

Identification of nonlinear systems using generalized kernel models

Nonlinear system identification is considered using a generalized kernel regression model. Unlike the standard kernel model, which employs a fixed common variance for all the kernel regressors, each kernel regressor in the generalized kernel model has an individually tuned diagonal covariance matrix that is determined by maximizing the correlation between the training data and the regressor using a repeated guided random search based on boosting optimization. An efficient construction algorithm based on orthogonal forward regression with leave-one-out (LOO) test statistic and local regularization (LR) is then used to select a parsimonious generalized kernel regression model from the resulting full regression matrix. The proposed modeling algorithm is fully automatic and the user is not required to specify any criterion to terminate the construction procedure. Experimental results involving two real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear system identification approach.

Orthogonal space-time block codes for free-space IM/DD optical links

Use of orthogonal space-time block codes (STBCs) with multiple transmitters and receivers can improve signal quality. However, in optical intensity modulated signals, output of the transmitter is non-negative and hence standard orthogonal STBC schemes need to be modified. A generalised framework for applying orthogonal STBCs for free-space IM/DD optical links is presented.