Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

The severity of malarial anaemia in Plasmodium chabaudi infections of BALB/c mice is determined independently of the number of circulating parasites

Background: Severe malarial anaemia is a major complication of malaria infection and is multifactorial resulting from loss of circulating red blood cells (RBCs) from parasite replication, as well as immune-mediated mechanisms. An understanding of the causes of severe malarial anaemia is necessary to develop and implement new therapeutic strategies to tackle this syndrome of malaria infection. Methods: Using analysis of variance, this work investigated whether parasite-destruction of RBCs always accounts for the severity of malarial anaemia during infections of the rodent malaria model Plasmodium chabaudi in mice of a BALB/c background. Differences in anaemia between two different clones of P. chabaudi were also examined. Results: Circulating parasite numbers were not correlated with the severity of anaemia in either BALB/c mice or under more severe conditions of anaemia in BALB/c RAG2 deficient mice (lacking T and B cells). Mice infected with P. chabaudi clone CB suffered more severe anaemia than mice infected with clone AS, but this was not correlated with the number of parasites in the circulation. Instead, the peak percentage of parasitized RBCs was higher in CB-infected animals than in AS-infected animals, and was correlated with the severity of anaemia, suggesting that the availability of uninfected RBCs was impaired in CB-infected animals. Conclusion: This work shows that parasite numbers are a more relevant measure of parasite levels in P. chabaudi infection than % parasitaemia, a measure that does not take anaemia into account. The lack of correlation between parasite numbers and the drop in circulating RBCs in this experimental model of malaria support a role for the host response in the impairment or destruction of uninfected RBC in P. chabaudi infections, and thus development of acute anaemia in this malaria model.

Fox-hunting in England and Wales: its contribution to the management of woodland and other habitats

Hunting foxes with hounds has been a countryside pursuit in Britain since the 17th Century, but its effect nationally on habitat management is little understood by the general public. A survey questionnaire was distributed to 163 mounted fox hunts of England and Wales to quantify their management practices in woodland and other habitat. Ninety-two hunts (56%), covering 75,514 km(2), returned details on woodland management motivated by the improvement of their sport. The management details were verified via on-site visits for a sample of 200 woodlands. Following verification, the area of woodlands containing the management was conservatively estimated at 24,053 (+/- 2241) ha, comprising 5.9% of woodland area within the whole of the area hunted by the 92 hunts. Management techniques included: tree planting, coppicing, felling, ride and perimeter management. A case study in five hunt countries in southern England examined, through the use of botanical survey and butterfly counts, the consequences of the hunt management on woodland ground flora and butterflies. Managed areas had, within the last 5 years, been coppiced and rides had been cleared. Vegetation cover in managed and unmanaged sites averaged 86% and 64%, respectively, and managed areas held on average 4 more plant species and a higher plant diversity than unmanaged areas (Shannon index of diversity: 2.25 vs. 1.95). Both the average number of butterfly species (2.2 vs. 0.3) and individuals counted (4.6 vs. 0.3) were higher in the managed than unmanaged sites.

Chylomicron particle size and number, factor VII activation and dietary monounsaturated fatty acids

This study evaluated the effects of substituting dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) on postprandial chylomicron (triacylglycerol (TAG), apolipoprotein B-48 (apo B-48) and retinyl ester (RE)), chylomicron particle size and factor VII (FVII) response when subjects were given a standard meal. In a controlled sequential design, 51 healthy young subjects followed an SFA-rich diet (Reference diet) for 8 weeks after which half of the subjects followed a moderate MUFA diet (n = 25) and half followed a high MUFA diet (n = 26) for 16 weeks. Fasting lipoprotein and lipid measurements were evaluated at baseline and at 8-week intervals during the Reference and MUFA diets. In 25 of the subjects (n = 12 moderate MUFA, n = 13 high MUFA), postprandial responses to a standard test meal containing RE and 13 C-tripalmitin were investigated at the end of the Reference and the MUFA diet periods. Although there were no differences in the postprandial lipid markers (TAG, RE, C-13-TAG) on the two diets, the postprandial apo B-48 response (incremental area under the curve (IAUC) was reduced by 21% on the moderate MUFA diet (NS) and by 54% on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.01). The postprandial peak concentrations of apo B-48 were reduced by 33% on the moderate MUFA diet (P < 0.01) and 48% on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.001). Fasting values for factor VII activity (FVIIc), activated factor VII (FVIIa) or factor VII antigen (FVIIag) did not differ significantly when subjects were transferred from Reference to MUFA diets. However, the postprandial increases in coagulation FVII activity (FVIIc) were 18% lower and of activated FVII (FVIIa) were 17% lower on the moderate MUFA diet (NS). Postprandial increases in FVIIc and FVIIa were 50% (P < 0.05) and 29% (P < 0.07) lower on the high MUFA diet and the area under the postprandial FVIIc response curve (AUC) was also lower on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.05). Significantly higher ratios of RE:apo B-48 (P < 0.001) and 13 C-palmitic acid:apo B-48 (P < 0.01) during both MUFA diets suggest that the CMs formed carry larger amounts of dietary lipids per particle, reflecting an adaptation to form larger lipid droplets in the enterocyte when increased amounts of dietary MUFAs are fed. Smaller numbers of larger chylomicrons may explain attenuated activation of factor VII during the postprandial state when the background diet is rich in MUFA. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Random number generation as an index of controlled processing

Random number generation (RNG) is a functionally complex process that is highly controlled and therefore dependent on Baddeley's central executive. This study addresses this issue by investigating whether key predictions from this framework are compatible with empirical data. In Experiment 1, the effect of increasing task demands by increasing the rate of the paced generation was comprehensively examined. As expected, faster rates affected performance negatively because central resources were increasingly depleted. Next, the effects of participants' exposure were manipulated in Experiment 2 by providing increasing amounts of practice on the task. There was no improvement over 10 practice trials, suggesting that the high level of strategic control required by the task was constant and not amenable to any automatization gain with repeated exposure. Together, the results demonstrate that RNG performance is a highly controlled and demanding process sensitive to additional demands on central resources (Experiment 1) and is unaffected by repeated performance or practice (Experiment 2). These features render the easily administered RNG task an ideal and robust index of executive function that is highly suitable for repeated clinical use.

Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining random number generators used in stochastic iteration algorithms

This paper investigates random number generators in stochastic iteration algorithms that require infinite uniform sequences. We take a simple model of the general transport equation and solve it with the application of a linear congruential generator, the Mersenne twister, the mother-of-all generators, and a true random number generator based on quantum effects. With this simple model we show that for reasonably contractive operators the theoretically not infinite-uniform sequences perform also well. Finally, we demonstrate the power of stochastic iteration for the solution of the light transport problem.

Optimal 3D surface reconstruction from a small number of conventional 2D X-ray images

This paper describes a method for reconstructing 3D frontier points, contour generators and surfaces of anatomical objects or smooth surfaces from a small number, e. g. 10, of conventional 2D X-ray images. The X-ray images are taken at different viewing directions with full prior knowledge of the X-ray source and sensor configurations. Unlike previous works, we empirically demonstrate that if the viewing directions are uniformly distributed around the object's viewing sphere, then the reconstructed 3D points automatically cluster closely on a highly curved part of the surface and are widely spread on smooth or flat parts. The advantage of this property is that the reconstructed points along a surface or a contour generator are not under-sampled or under-represented because surfaces or contours should be sampled or represented with more densely points where their curvatures are high. The more complex the contour's shape, the greater is the number of points required, but the greater the number of points is automatically generated by the proposed method. Given that the number of viewing directions is fixed and the viewing directions are uniformly distributed, the number and distribution of the reconstructed points depend on the shape or the curvature of the surface regardless of the size of the surface or the size of the object. The technique may be used not only in medicine but also in industrial applications.

Condition number estimates for combined potential integral operators in acoustics and their boundary element discretisation

We consider the classical coupled, combined-field integral equation formulations for time-harmonic acoustic scattering by a sound soft bounded obstacle. In recent work, we have proved lower and upper bounds on the $L^2$ condition numbers for these formulations, and also on the norms of the classical acoustic single- and double-layer potential operators. These bounds to some extent make explicit the dependence of condition numbers on the wave number $k$, the geometry of the scatterer, and the coupling parameter. For example, with the usual choice of coupling parameter they show that, while the condition number grows like $k^{1/3}$ as $k\to\infty$, when the scatterer is a circle or sphere, it can grow as fast as $k^{7/5}$ for a class of `trapping' obstacles. In this paper we prove further bounds, sharpening and extending our previous results. In particular we show that there exist trapping obstacles for which the condition numbers grow as fast as $\exp(\gamma k)$, for some $\gamma>0$, as $k\to\infty$ through some sequence. This result depends on exponential localisation bounds on Laplace eigenfunctions in an ellipse that we prove in the appendix. We also clarify the correct choice of coupling parameter in 2D for low $k$. In the second part of the paper we focus on the boundary element discretisation of these operators. We discuss the extent to which the bounds on the continuous operators are also satisfied by their discrete counterparts and, via numerical experiments, we provide supporting evidence for some of the theoretical results, both quantitative and asymptotic, indicating further which of the upper and lower bounds may be sharper.

A unified titration formula

In a number of standard titrations, a volume of a monoprotic base MOH at a specific concentration is added to a volume of a monoprotic acid HA at a specific concentrations. Four different types of titration are possible, depending on whether the acid and base are strong or weak. A single unifying formula covering all four cases has been determined.

Detecting the number of signals using antenna array: a single threshold solution

A new approach is presented to identify the number of incoming signals in antenna array processing. The new method exploits the inherent properties existing in the noise eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the array output. A single threshold has been established concerning information about the signal and noise strength, data length, and array size. When the subspace-based algorithms are adopted the computation cost of the signal number detector can almost be neglected. The performance of the threshold is robust against low SNR and short data length.

Olive oil increases the number of triacylglycerol-rich chylomicron particles compared with other oils: an effect retained when a second standard meal is fed

Background: Compared with the postprandial events after a single meal, different events occur when a second meal is ingested 4–6 h after a first meal. There is a rapid appearance of chylomicrons in the circulation carrying fat ingested with the first meal, with a peak 1 h after the second meal. Objective: Our goal was to examine whether different dietary oils have effects on the storage of triacylglycerol as a result of differences in their digestion, absorption, and incorporation into chylomicrons. Design: A single-blind, randomized, within-subject crossover design was used to study the effects of palm oil, safflower oil, a mixture of fish and safflower oil, and olive oil on postprandial apolipoprotein (apo) B-48, retinyl ester, and triacylglycerol in the Sf > 400 fraction with the use of a sequential meal protocol. Results: For triacylglycerol, retinyl ester, and apo B-48, the time to reach peak concentration was significantly earlier after the second meal than after the first meal (P < 0.005). This was apparent with each of the dietary oils. The pattern of the apo B-48 response differed significantly among the dietary oils, with olive oil resulting in higher concentrations after both meals (P = 0.003). The ratio of triacylglycerol to apo B-48 was significantly lower after olive oil feeding than after feeding with the other oils (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The rapid entry of chylomicrons after the ingestion of a second meal 5 h after a first meal was seen with all of the oils investigated. The short-term ingestion of olive oil produced more chylomicrons than did the other dietary oils, which may have been due to differences in the metabolic handling of olive oil within the gut.

Observations of ice multiplication in a weakly convective cell embedded in supercooled mid-level stratus

Simultaneous observations of cloud microphysical properties were obtained by in-situ aircraft measurements and ground based Radar/Lidar. Widespread mid-level stratus cloud was present below a temperature inversion (~5 °C magnitude) at 3.6 km altitude. Localised convection (peak updraft 1.5 m s−1) was observed 20 km west of the Radar station. This was associated with convergence at 2.5 km altitude. The convection was unable to penetrate the inversion capping the mid-level stratus. The mid-level stratus cloud was vertically thin (~400 m), horizontally extensive (covering 100 s of km) and persisted for more than 24 h. The cloud consisted of supercooled water droplets and small concentrations of large (~1 mm) stellar/plate like ice which slowly precipitated out. This ice was nucleated at temperatures greater than −12.2 °C and less than −10.0 °C, (cloud top and cloud base temperatures, respectively). No ice seeding from above the cloud layer was observed. This ice was formed by primary nucleation, either through the entrainment of efficient ice nuclei from above/below cloud, or by the slow stochastic activation of immersion freezing ice nuclei contained within the supercooled drops. Above cloud top significant concentrations of sub-micron aerosol were observed and consisted of a mixture of sulphate and carbonaceous material, a potential source of ice nuclei. Particle number concentrations (in the size range 0.1