Influence of drought-induced acidification on the mobility of dissolved organic carbon in peat soils

A strong relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulphate (SO42−) dynamics under drought conditions has been revealed from analysis of a 10-year time series (1993–2002). Soil solution from a blanket peat at 10 cm depth and stream water were collected at biweekly and weekly intervals, respectively, by the Environmental Change Network at Moor House-Upper Teesdale National Nature Reserve in the North Pennine uplands of Britain. DOC concentrations in soil solution and stream water were closely coupled, displaying a strong seasonal cycle with lowest concentrations in early spring and highest in late summer/early autumn. Soil solution DOC correlated strongly with seasonal variations in soil temperature at the same depth 4-weeks prior to sampling. Deviation from this relationship was seen, however, in years with significant water table drawdown (>−25 cm), such that DOC concentrations were up to 60% lower than expected. Periods of drought also resulted in the release of SO42−, because of the oxidation of inorganic/organic sulphur stored in the peat, which was accompanied by a decrease in pH and increase in ionic strength. As both pH and ionic strength are known to control the solubility of DOC, inclusion of a function to account for DOC suppression because of drought-induced acidification accounted for more of the variability of DOC in soil solution (R2=0.81) than temperature alone (R2=0.58). This statistical model of peat soil solution DOC at 10 cm depth was extended to reproduce 74% of the variation in stream DOC over this period. Analysis of annual budgets showed that the soil was the main source of SO42− during droughts, while atmospheric deposition was the main source in other years. Mass balance calculations also showed that most of the DOC originated from the peat. The DOC flux was also lower in the drought years of 1994 and 1995, reflecting low DOC concentrations in soil and stream water. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that lower concentrations of DOC in both soil and stream waters during drought years can be explained in terms of drought-induced acidification. As future climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought events, these results imply potential for a related increase in DOC suppression by episodic acidification.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

The changing atmospheric water cycle in polar regions in a warmer climate

We have examined the atmospheric water cycle of both Polar Regions, pole wards of 60°N and 60°S, using the ERA-Interim re-analysis and high-resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 model for both the present and future climate based on the IPCC, A1B scenario, representative of the last three decades of the 21st century. The annual precipitation in ERA-Interim amounts to ~17000 km3 and is more or less the same in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but it is composed differently. In the Arctic the annual evaporation is some 8000 km3 but some 3000 km3 less in the Antarctica where the net horizontal transport is correspondingly larger. The net water transport of the model is more intense than in ERA-Interim, in the Arctic the difference is 2.5% and in the Antarctic it is 6.2%. Precipitation and net horizontal transport in the Arctic has a maximum in August and September. Evaporation peaks in June and July. The seasonal cycle is similar in Antarctica with the highest precipitation in the austral autumn. The largest net transport occurs at the end of the major extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere such as the eastern Pacific and eastern north Atlantic. The variability of the model is virtually identical to that of the re-analysis and there are no changes in variability between the present climate and the climate at the end of the 21st century when normalized with the higher level of moisture. The changes from year to year are substantial with the 20 and 30-year records being generally too short to identify robust trends in the hydrological cycle. In the A1B climate scenario the strength of the water cycle increases by some 25% in the Arctic and by 19% in the Antarctica, as measured by annual precipitation. The increase in the net horizontal transport is 29% and 22% respectively, and the increase in evaporation correspondingly less. The net transport follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. There is 2 a minor change in the annual cycle of the Arctic atmospheric water cycle with the maximum transport and precipitation occurring later in the year. There is a small imbalance of some 4-6% between the net transport and precipitation minus evaporation. We suggest that this is mainly due to the fact the transport is calculated from instantaneous 6-hourly data while precipitation and evaporation is accumulated over a 6 hour period. The residual difference is proportionally similar for all experiments and hardly varies from year to year.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region

In this study, 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are used for the description of the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. To complement results based on the analysis of monthly mean horizontal wind speeds, an occurrence-based jet climatology is constructed by identifying the locations of the jet axes at 6-hourly intervals throughout 1958–2001. Thus, a dataset describing the highly transient and localized features of jet variability is obtained. During winter and summer the westerly jet is located, respectively, to the south and north of the Tibetan Plateau. During the spring and autumn seasons there are jet transitions from south to north and vice versa. The median dates for these transitions are 28 April and 12 October. The spring transition is associated with large interannual variations, while the fall transition occurs more reliably within a 3-week period. The strength of the jet exhibits a peculiar seasonal cycle. During northward migration in April/May, the jet intensity weakens and its latitudinal position varies largely. In some springs, there are several transitions and split configurations occur before the jet settles in its northern summer position. In June, a well-defined and unusually strong jet reappears at the northern flanks of the Tibetan Plateau. In autumn, the jet gradually but reliably recedes to the south and is typically more intense than in spring. The jet transitions between the two preferred locations follow the seasonal latitudinal migration of the jet in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of interannual variations shows the statistical relationship between the strength of the summer jet, the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, and the all-India rainfall series. Both this analysis and results from previous studies point to the particular dynamical relevance of the onsetting Indian summer monsoon precipitation and the associated diabatic heating for the formation of the strong summer jet. Finally, an example is provided that illustrates the climatological significance of the jet in terms of the covariation between the jet location and the spatial precipitation distribution in central Asia.

Role of the atmosphere in the seasonal phase locking of El Nino

The variations with the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric response to constant SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are investigated with the atmospheric GCM, HadAM3. The equatorial wind response is weakest in January and February when the warmest SSTs are south of the Equator and strongest in April when the warmest SSTs are on the Equator. This may have consequences for the seasonality of the onset and termination of El Niño. Westerly wind anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño have previously been observed to shift south of the Equator, weakening on the Equator, during the northern winter. It has been suggested that this may contribute to the termination of El Niño in spring. These experiments demonstrate that such a shift can arise solely in response to the mean seasonal cycle during El Niño and does not require changes in SST anomalies.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

Measurements of NO, NOy, N2O, and O3 during SPURT: implications for transport and chemistry in the lowermost stratosphere

We present measurements of NO, NOy, O3, and N2O within the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) over Europe obtained during the SPURT project. The measurements cover all seasons between November 2001 and July 2003. They span a broad band of latitudes from 30° N to 75° N and a potential temperature range from 290 to 380 K. The measurements represent a comprehensive data set of these tracers and reveal atmospheric transport processes that influence tracer distributions in the LMS. Median mixing ratios of stratospheric tracers in equivalent latitude-potential temperature coordinates show a clear seasonal cycle related to the Brewer-Dobson circulation, with highest values in spring and lowest values in autumn. Vertical tracer profiles show strong gradients at the extratropical tropopause, suggesting that vertical (cross-isentropic) mixing is reduced above the tropopause. Pronounced meridional gradients in the tracer mixing ratios are found on potential temperature surfaces in the LMS. This suggests strongly reduced mixing along isentropes. Concurrent large gradients in static stability in the vertical direction, and of PV in the meridional direction, suggest the presence of a mixing barrier. Seasonal cycles were found in the correlation slopes ΔO3/ΔN2O and ΔNOy/ΔN2O well above the tropopause. Absolute slope values are smallest in spring indicating chemically aged stratospheric air originating from high altitudes and latitudes. Larger values were measured in summer and autumn suggesting that a substantial fraction of air takes a "short-cut" from the tropical tropopause region into the extratropical LMS. The seasonal change in the composition of the LMS has direct implications for the ozone chemistry in this region. Comparisons of measured NO with the critical NO value at which net ozone production changes from negative to positive, imply ozone production up to 20 K above the local tropopause in spring, up to 30 K in summer, and up to 40 K in autumn. Above these heights, and in winter, net ozone production is negative.

Seasonality and extent of extratropical TST derived from in-situ CO measurements during SPURT

We present airborne in-situ trace gas measurements which were performed on eight campaigns between November 2001 and July 2003 during the SPURT-project (SPURenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region). The measurements on a quasi regular basis allowed an overview of the seasonal variations of the trace gas distribution in the tropopause region over Europe from 35°-75°N to investigate the influence of transport and mixing across the extratropical tropopause on the lowermost stratosphere. From the correlation of CO and O3 irreversible mixing of tropospheric air into the lowermost stratosphere is identified. The CO distribution indicates that transport and subsequent mixing of tropospheric air across the extratropical tropopause predominantly affects a layer, which closely follows the shape of the local tropopause. In addition, the seasonal cycle of CO2 illustrates the strong coupling of that layer to the extratropical troposphere. Both, horizontal gradients of CO on isentropes as well as the CO-O3-distribution in the lowermost stratosphere reveal that the influence of quasi-horizontal transport and subsequent mixing weakens with distance from the local tropopause. The mixing layer extends to about 25 K in potential temperature above the local tropopause exhibiting only a weak seasonality. However, at large distances from the tropopause a significant influence of tropospheric air is still evident. The relation between N2O and CO2 indicates that a significant contribution of air originating from the tropical tropopause contributes to the background air in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

The regulation of seasonal flowering in the Rosaceae

Molecular mechanisms regulating the flowering process have been extensively studied in model annual plants; in perennials, however, understanding of the molecular mechanisms controlling flowering has just started to emerge. Here we review the current state of flowering research in perennial plants of the rose family (Rosaceae), which is one of the most economically important families of horticultural plants. Strawberry (Fragaria spp.), raspberry (Rubus spp.), rose (Rosa spp.), and apple (Malus spp.) are used to illustrate how photoperiod and temperature control seasonal flowering in rosaceous crops. We highlight recent molecular studies which have revealed homologues of TERMINAL FLOWER1 (TFL1) to be major regulators of both the juvenile to adult, and the vegetative to reproductive transitions in various rosaceous species. Additionally, recent advances in understanding of the regulation of TFL1 are discussed.

Climate at high-obliquity

The question of climate at high obliquity is raised in the context of both exoplanet studies (e.g. habitability) and paleoclimates studies (evidence for low-latitude glaciation during the Neoproterozoic and the ”Snowball Earth” hypothesis). States of high obliquity, φ, are distinctive in that, for φ ≥54◦, the poles receive more solar radiation in the annual mean than the Equator, opposite to the present day situation. In addition, the seasonal cycle of insolation is extreme, with the poles alternatively “facing” the sun and sheltering in the dark for months. The novelty of our approach is to consider the role of a dynamical ocean in controlling the surface climate at high obliquity, which in turn requires understanding of the surface winds patterns when temperature gradients are reversed. To address these questions, a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM configured on an aquaplanet is employed. Except for the absence of topography and modified obliquity, the set-up is Earth-like. Two large obliquities φ, 54◦ and 90◦, are compared to today’s Earth value, φ=23.5◦. Three key results emerge at high obliquity: 1) despite reversed temper- ature gradients, mid-latitudes surface winds are westerly and trade winds exist at the equator (as for φ=23.5◦) although the westerlies are confined to the summer hemisphere, 2) a habitable planet is possible with mid-latitude temperatures in the range 300-280 K and 3) a stable climate state with an ice cap limited to the equatorial region is unlikely. We clarify the dynamics behind these features (notably by an analysis of the potential vorticity structure and conditions for baroclinic instability of the atmosphere). Interestingly, we find that the absence of a stable partially glaciated state is critically linked to the absence of ocean heat transport during winter, a feature ultimately traced back to the high seasonality of baroclinic instability conditions in the atmosphere.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Vegetation and soils feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon response to orbital forcing in early to middle Holocene

Fossil pollen, ancient lake sediments and archaeological evidence from Africa indicate that the Sahel and Sahara regions were considerably wetter than today during the early to middle Holocene period, about 12,000 to 5,000 years ago1–4. Vegetation associated with the modern Sahara/Sahel boundary was about 5° farther north, and there were more and larger lakes between 15 and 30° N. Simulations with climate models have shown that these wetter conditions were probably caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters that increased the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere, enhanced the land-ocean temperature contrast, and thereby strengthened the African summer monsoon5–7. However, these simulations underestimated the consequent monsoon enhancement as inferred from palaeorecords4. Here we use a climate model to show that changes in vegetation and soil may have increased the climate response to orbital forcing. We find that replacing today's orbital forcing with that of the mid-Holocene increases summer precipitation by 12% between 15 and 22° N. Replacing desert with grassland, and desert soil with more loamy soil, further enhances the summer precipitation (by 6 and 10% respectively), giving a total precipitation increase of 28%. When the simulated climate changes are applied to a biome model, vegetation becomes established north of the current Sahara/Sahel boundary, thereby shrinking the area of the Sahara by 11% owing to orbital forcing alone, and by 20% owing to the combined influence of orbital forcing and the prescribed vegetation and soil changes. The inclusion of the vegetation and soil feedbacks thus brings the model simulations and palaeovegetation observations into closer agreement.

Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.