Sex allocation and local mate competition in Old World non-pollinating fig wasps

The populations of many species are structured such that mating is not random and occurs between members of local patches. When patches are founded by a single female and all matings occur between siblings, brothers may compete with each other for matings with their sisters. This local mate competition (LMC) selects for a female-biased sex ratio, especially in species where females have control over offspring sex, as in the parasitic Hymenoptera. Two factors are predicted to decrease the degree of female bias: (1) an increase in the number of foundress females in the patch and (2) an increase in the fraction of individuals mating after dispersal from the natal patch. Pollinating fig wasps are well known as classic examples of species where all matings occur in the local patch. We studied non-pollinating fig wasps, which are more diverse than the pollinating fig wasps and also provide natural experimental groups of species with different male morphologies that are linked to different mating structures. In this group of wasps, species with wingless males mate in the local patch (i.e. the fig fruit) while winged male species mate after dispersal. Species with both kinds of male have a mixture of local and non-local mating. Data from 44 species show that sex ratios (defined as the proportion of males) are in accordance with theoretical predictions: wingless male species < wing-dimorphic male species < winged male species. These results are also supported by a formal comparative analysis that controls for phylogeny. The foundress number is difficult to estimate directly for non-pollinating fig wasps but a robust indirect method leads to the prediction that foundress number, and hence sex ratio, should increase with the proportion of patches occupied in a crop. This result is supported strongly across 19 species with wingless males, but not across 8 species with winged males. The mean sex ratios for species with winged males are not significantly different from 0.5, and the absence of the correlation observed across species with wingless males may reflect weak selection to adjust the sex ratio in species whose population mating structure tends not to be subdivided. The same relationship is also predicted to occur within species if individual females adjust their sex ratios facultatively. This final prediction was not supported by data from a wingless male species, a male wing-dimorphic species or a winged male species.

Influence of probabilistic climate projections on building energy simulation

The Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) produced a technical memorandum (TM36) presenting research on future climate impacting building energy use and thermal comfort. One climate projection for each of four CO2 emissions scenario were used in TM36, so providing a deterministic outlook. As part of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) probabilistic climate projections are being studied in relation to building energy simulation techniques. Including uncertainty in climate projections is considered an important advance to climate impacts modelling and is included in the latest UKCIP data (UKCP09). Incorporating the stochastic nature of these new climate projections in building energy modelling requires a significant increase in data handling and careful statistical interpretation of the results to provide meaningful conclusions. This paper compares the results from building energy simulations when applying deterministic and probabilistic climate data. This is based on two case study buildings: (i) a mixed-mode office building with exposed thermal mass and (ii) a mechanically ventilated, light-weight office building. Building (i) represents an energy efficient building design that provides passive and active measures to maintain thermal comfort. Building (ii) relies entirely on mechanical means for heating and cooling, with its light-weight construction raising concern over increased cooling loads in a warmer climate. Devising an effective probabilistic approach highlighted greater uncertainty in predicting building performance, depending on the type of building modelled and the performance factors under consideration. Results indicate that the range of calculated quantities depends not only on the building type but is strongly dependent on the performance parameters that are of interest. Uncertainty is likely to be particularly marked with regard to thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings.

Cloud droplet size and liquid water path retrievals from zenith radiance measurements: examples from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program and the Aerosol Robotic Network

The ground-based Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) and NASA Aerosol Robotic Net- work (AERONET) routinely monitor clouds using zenith ra- diances at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Using the transmittance calculated from such measurements, we have developed a new retrieval method for cloud effective droplet size and conducted extensive tests for non-precipitating liquid water clouds. The underlying principle is to combine a liquid-water-absorbing wavelength (i.e., 1640 nm) with a non-water-absorbing wavelength for acquiring information on cloud droplet size and optical depth. For simulated stratocumulus clouds with liquid water path less than 300 g m−2 and horizontal resolution of 201 m, the retrieval method underestimates the mean effective radius by 0.8μm, with a root-mean-squared error of 1.7 μm and a relative deviation of 13%. For actual observations with a liquid water path less than 450 g m−2 at the ARM Oklahoma site during 2007– 2008, our 1.5-min-averaged retrievals are generally larger by around 1 μm than those from combined ground-based cloud radar and microwave radiometer at a 5-min temporal resolution. We also compared our retrievals to those from combined shortwave flux and microwave observations for relatively homogeneous clouds, showing that the bias between these two retrieval sets is negligible, but the error of 2.6 μm and the relative deviation of 22 % are larger than those found in our simulation case. Finally, the transmittance-based cloud effective droplet radii agree to better than 11 % with satellite observations and have a negative bias of 1 μm. Overall, the retrieval method provides reasonable cloud effective radius estimates, which can enhance the cloud products of both ARM and AERONET.

Promoting the use of BaP as a marker for PAH exposure in UK soils

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental pollutants that frequently accumulate in soils. There is therefore a requirement to determine their levels in contaminated environments for the purposes of determining impacts on human health. PAHs are a suite of individual chemicals, and there is an ongoing debate as to the most appropriate method for assessing the risk to humans from them. Two methods predominate: the surrogate marker approach and the toxic equivalency factor. The former assumes that all chemicals in a mixture have an equivalent toxicity. The toxic equivalency approach estimates the potency of individual chemicals relative to the usually most toxic Benzo(a)pyrene. The surrogate marker approach is believed to overestimate risk and the toxic equivalency factor to underestimate risk. When analysing the risks from soils, the surrogate marker approach is preferred due to its simplicity, but there are concerns because of the potential diversity of the PAH profile across the range of impacted soils. Using two independent data sets containing soils from 274 sites across a diverse range of locations, statistical analysis was undertaken to determine the differences in the composition of carcinogenic PAH between site locations, for example, rural versus industrial. Following principal components analysis, distinct population differences were not seen between site locations in spite of large differences in the total PAH burden between individual sites. Using all data, highly significant correlations were seen between BaP and other carcinogenic PAH with the majority of r2 values > 0.8. Correlations with the European Food Standards Agency (EFSA) summed groups, that is, EFSA2, EFSA4 and EFSA8 had even higher correlations (r2 > 0.95). We therefore conclude that BaP is a suitable surrogate marker to represent mixtures of PAH in soil during risk assessments.

Desert dust deposition on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia in 2009-2012 as recorded in snow and shallow ice core: high-resolution "provenancing", transport patterns, physical properties and soluble ionic composition

A record of dust deposition events between 2009 and 2012 on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow ice core is presented for the first time for this region. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (cf. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in north-eastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric south-westerly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level and, although these events were less frequent, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centered over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or south-easterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterise dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-greenblue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 µm and 4.16 µm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0– 2.8 µm with an average of 2.6 µm and there was no signifi- cant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a−1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a−1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a−1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a−1; range 13–20 Tg a−1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a−1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to −0.62 (−0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, −0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and −0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. However, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.