Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Production of attaching-effacing lesions in ligated large intestine loops of 6-month-old sheep by Escherichia coli O157:H7

Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157:H7) is associated with potentially fatal human disease, and a persistent reservoir of the organism is present in some farm animal species, especially cattle and sheep. The mechanisms of persistent colonisation of the ruminant intestine by STEC O157:H7 are poorly understood but may be associated with intimate adherence to eukaryotic cells. Intimate adherence, as evidenced by induction of attaching-effacing (AE) lesions by STEC O157, has been observed in 6-day-old conventional lambs after deliberate oral infection but not in older animals. Thus, the present study used a ligated intestinal loop technique to investigate whether STEC O157:H7 and other attaching-effacing E. coli may adhere intimately to the sheep large intestinal mucosa. To do this, four STEC O157:H7 strains, one STEC 026:K60:H11 and one Shiga toxin-negative E. coli O157:H7 strain, suspended in either phosphate-buffered saline or Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium, were inoculated into ligated spiral colon loops of each of two lambs. The loops were removed 6 h after inoculation, fixed and examined by light and electron microscopy. AE lesions on the intestinal mucosa were produced by all the inoculated strains. However, the lesions were sparse and small, typically comprising bacterial cells intimately adhered to a single enterocyte, or a few adjacent enterocytes. There was little correlation between the extent of intimate adherence in this model and the bacterial cell density, pre-inoculation growth conditions of the bacteria or the strain tested.

The causal inefficacy of content

The paper begins with the assumption that psychological event tokens are identical to or constituted from physical events. It then articulates a familiar apparent problem concerning the causal role of psychological properties. If they do not reduce to physical properties, then either they must be epiphenomenal or any effects they cause must also be caused by physical properties, and hence be overdetermined. It then argues that both epiphenomenalism and over-determinationism are prima facie perfectly reasonable and relatively unproblematic views. The paper proceeds to argue against Kim’s (Kim, 2000, 2005) attempt to articulate a plausible version of reductionism. It is then argued that psychological properties, along with paradigmatically causally efficacious macro-properties, such as toughness, are causally inefficacious in respect of their possessor’s typical effects, because they are insufficiently distinct from those effects. It is finally suggested that the distinction between epiphenomenalism and overdeterminationism may be more terminological than real.

A dynamic causal model of the coupling between pulse stimulation and neural activity

We present a dynamic causal model that can explain context-dependent changes in neural responses, in the rat barrel cortex, to an electrical whisker stimulation at different frequencies. Neural responses were measured in terms of local field potentials. These were converted into current source density (CSD) data, and the time series of the CSD sink was extracted to provide a time series response train. The model structure consists of three layers (approximating the responses from the brain stem to the thalamus and then the barrel cortex), and the latter two layers contain nonlinearly coupled modules of linear second-order dynamic systems. The interaction of these modules forms a nonlinear regulatory system that determines the temporal structure of the neural response amplitude for the thalamic and cortical layers. The model is based on the measured population dynamics of neurons rather than the dynamics of a single neuron and was evaluated against CSD data from experiments with varying stimulation frequency (1–40 Hz), random pulse trains, and awake and anesthetized animals. The model parameters obtained by optimization for different physiological conditions (anesthetized or awake) were significantly different. Following Friston, Mechelli, Turner, and Price (2000), this work is part of a formal mathematical system currently being developed (Zheng et al., 2005) that links stimulation to the blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signal through neural activity and hemodynamic variables. The importance of the model described here is that it can be used to invert the hemodynamic measurements of changes in blood flow to estimate the underlying neural activity.

Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Causal evidence for a privileged working memory state in early visual cortex

Emerging evidence suggests that items held in working memory(WM)might not all be in the same representational state. One item might be privileged over others, making it more accessible and thereby recalled with greater precision. Here, using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), we provide causal evidence in human participants that items inWMare differentially susceptible to disruptive TMS, depending on their state, determined either by task relevance or serial position. Across two experiments, we applied TMS to area MT during the WM retention of two motion directions. In Experiment 1, we used an “incidental cue” to bring one of the two targets into a privileged state. In Experiment 2, we presented the targets sequentially so that the last item was in a privileged state by virtue of recency. In both experiments, recall precision of motion direction was differentially affected by TMS, depending on the state of the memory target at the time of disruption. Privileged items were recalled with less precision, whereas nonprivileged items were recalled with higher precision. Thus, only the privileged item was susceptible to disruptive TMS over MT�. By contrast, precision of the nonprivileged item improved either directly because of facilitation by TMS or indirectly through reduced interference from the privileged item. Our results provide a unique line of evidence, as revealed by TMS over a posterior sensory brain region, for at least two different states of item representation in WM.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

A causal role for posterior medial prefrontal cortex in choice-induced preference change

After a person chooses between two items, preference for the chosen item will increase and preference for the unchosen item will decrease because of the choice made. In other words, we tend to justify or rationalize our past behavior by changing our attitude. This phenomenon of choice-induced preference change has been traditionally explained by cognitive dissonance theory. Choosing something that is disliked or not choosing something that is liked are both cognitively inconsistent, and in order to reduce this inconsistency, people tend to change their subsequently stated preference in accordance with their past choices. Previously, neuroimaging studies identified posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) as a key brain region involved in cognitive dissonance. However, it still remains unknown whether the pMFC plays a causal role in inducing preference change following cognitive dissonance. Here, we demonstrate that 25-min 1-Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) applied over the pMFC significantly reduces choice-induced preference change compared to sham stimulation, or control stimulation over a different brain region, demonstrating a causal role for the pMFC.