Statistical analysis of eight surface ozone measurement series for various sites in Ireland

Data from various stations having different measurement record periods between 1988 and 2007 are analyzed to investigate the surface ozone concentration, long-term trends, and seasonal changes in and around Ireland. Time series statistical analysis is performed on the monthly mean data using seasonal and trend decomposition procedures and the Box-Jenkins approach (autoregressive integrated moving average). In general, ozone concentrations in the Irish region are found to have a negative trend at all sites except at the coastal sites of Mace Head and Valentia. Data from the most polluted Dublin city site have shown a very strong negative trend of −0.33 ppb/yr with a 95% confidence limit of 0.17 ppb/yr (i.e., −0.33 ± 0.17) for the period 2002−2007, and for the site near the city of Cork, the trend is found to be −0.20 ± 0.11 ppb/yr over the same period. The negative trend for other sites is more pronounced when the data span is considered from around the year 2000 to 2007. Rural sites of Wexford and Monaghan have also shown a very strong negative trend of −0.99 ± 0.13 and −0.58 ± 0.12, respectively, for the period 2000−2007. Mace Head, a site that is representative of ozone changes in the air advected from the Atlantic to Europe in the marine planetary boundary layer, has shown a positive trend of about +0.16 ± 0.04 ppb per annum over the entire period 1988−2007, but this positive trend has reduced during recent years (e.g., in the period 2001−2007). Cluster analysis for back trajectories are performed for the stations having a long record of data, Mace Head and Lough Navar. For Mace Head, the northern and western clean air sectors have shown a similar positive trend (+0.17 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the northern sector and +0.18 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the western sector) for the whole period, but partial analysis for the clean western sector at Mace Head shows different trends during different time periods with a decrease in the positive trend since 1988 indicating a deceleration in the ozone trend for Atlantic air masses entering Europe.

Thinking out of the box – skills for work

Since the Dearing Report .1 there has been an increased emphasis on the development of employability and transferable (‘soft’) skills in undergraduate programmes. Within STEM subject areas, recent reports concluded that universities should offer ‘greater and more sustainable variety in modes of study to meet the changing demands of industry and students’.2 At the same time, higher education (HE) institutions are increasingly conscious of the sensitivity of league table positions on employment statistics and graduate destinations. Modules that are either credit or non-credit bearing are finding their way into the core curriculum at HE. While the UK government and other educational bodies argue the way forward over A-level reform, universities must also meet the needs of their first year cohorts in terms of the secondary to tertiary transition and developing independence in learning.

Inside the black box: unravelling the development viability appraisal process

Over the last decade issues related to the financial viability of development have become increasingly important to the English planning system. As part of a wider shift towards the compartmentalisation of planning tasks, expert consultants are required to quantify, in an attempt to rationalise, planning decisions in terms of economic ‘viability’. Often with a particular focus on planning obligations, the results of development viability modelling have emerged as a key part of the evidence base used in site-specific negotiations and in planning policy formation. Focussing on the role of clients and other stakeholders, this paper investigates how development viability is tested in practice. It draws together literature on the role of calculative practices in policy formation, client feedback and influence in real estate appraisals and stakeholder engagement and consultation in the planning literature to critically evaluate the role of clients and other interest groups in influencing the production and use of development viability appraisal models. The paper draws upon semi-structured interviews with the main producers of development viability appraisals to conclude that, whilst appraisals have the potential to be biased by client and stakeholder interests, there are important controlling influences on potential opportunistic behaviour. One such control is local authorities’ weak understanding of development viability appraisal techniques which limits their capacity to question the outputs of appraisal models. However, this also is of concern given that viability is now a central feature of the town planning system.

An experiment on energy-saving competition with socially responsible consumers: opening the black box

We present results from experimental price-setting oligopolies in which green firms undertake different levels of energy-saving investments motivated by public subsidies and demand-side advantages. We find that consumers reveal higher willingness to pay for greener sellers’ products. This observation in conjunction to the fact that greener sellers set higher prices is compatible with the use and interpretation of energy-saving behaviour as a differentiation strategy. However, sellers do not exploit the resulting advantage through sufficiently high price-cost margins, because they seem trapped into “run to stay still” competition. Regarding the use of public subsidies to energy-saving sellers we uncover an undesirable crowding-out effect of consumers’ intrinsic tendency to support green manufacturers. Namely, consumers may be less willing to support a green seller whose energy-saving strategy yields a direct financial benefit. Finally, we disentangle two alternative motivations for consumer’s attractions to pro-social firms; first, the self-interested recognition of the firm’s contribution to the public and private welfare and, second, the need to compensate a firm for the cost entailed in each pro-social action. Our results show the prevalence of the former over the latter.

Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a fixed measurement location may not represent the true evolution if there are spatial variations in the formation and growth rates. Here we present a zero-dimensional aerosol box model coupled with one-dimensional atmospheric flow to describe the impact of advection on the evolution of simulated new particle formation events. Wind speed, particle formation rates and growth rates are input parameters that can vary as a function of time and location, using wind speed to connect location to time. The output simulates measurements at a fixed location; formation and growth rates of the particle mode can then be calculated from the simulated observations at a stationary point for different scenarios and be compared with the ‘true’ input parameters. Hence, we can investigate how spatial variations in the formation and growth rates of new particles would appear in observations of particle number size distributions at a fixed measurement site. We show that the particle size distribution and growth rate at a fixed location is dependent on the formation and growth parameters upwind, even if local conditions do not vary. We also show that different input parameters used may result in very similar simulated measurements. Erroneous interpretation of observations in terms of particle formation and growth rates, and the time span and areal extent of new particle formation, is possible if the spatial effects are not accounted for.