Dichrostachys cinerea and Acacia nilotica fruits as dry season feed supplements for goats in a semi-arid environment: Summary of a DFID funded project in Zimbabwe

Indehiscent fruits of six tree species, common in Matabeleland were examined in in vitro and in vivo trials. The results for two of them, Acacia nilotica and Dichrostachys cinerea are presented here. Acacia nilotica-contained more total phenolics than D. cinerea, but less nitrogen (N) and fibre (ADF and NDF). After 48 h incubation, in vitro OMD of both species was increased by PEG and NaOH or wood ash treatment, except when NaOH or wood ash were used in combination with PEG with D. cinerea fruits. DM intake, DMD were lowest and N-retention negative in goats fed A. nilotica as supplement. However when fed a supplement of D. cinerea, untreated or treated with PEG or NaOH, digestibility and N-retention were highest, and similar to a commercial goat meal, with the untreated fruit. In a trial in which milking does were supplemented with D. cinerea fruits, for 65 before and 65 days after kidding, kid birthweight and weaning weight were increased by supplementation. Deaths of twin-born kids were lowest in the supplemented but unmilked group. Supplementation with D. cinerea fruit resulted in improved goat performance. The only treatment applied of practical significance, wood ash, is currently being tested in an in vivo study. More research is required on detoxification of tannins, especially with A. nilotica. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the potential consumption impacts of WHO dietary norms in OECD countries

The member countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) have recently endorsed its global strategy on diet, physical activity and health. The strategy emphasises the need to limit the consumption of saturated fats and trans-fatty acids, salt and sugars, and to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables in order to combat the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. This paper attempts a broad quantitative assessment of the consumption impacts of these norms in OECD countries using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to the WHO norms would involve a significant decrease in the consumption of vegetable oils (30%), dairy products (28%), sugar (24%), animal fats (30%) and meat (pig meat, 13.5%, mutton and goat 14.5%) and a significant increase in the human consumption of cereals (31%), fruits (25%) and vegetables (21%). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calcium removal from milk by ion exchange

Calcium removal, using Duolite C433 ion exchange resin, was faster from permeate than from milk. Almost all calcium could be removed, suggesting a fairly rapid conversion from both soluble calcium phosphate and from micellar calcium to ionic calcium. Calcium reduction from milk is accompanied by an increase in pH, a reduction in ionic calcium, an increase in ethanol stability and an increase in the rennet coagulation time. There is a gradual increase in the average casein micelle size with calcium removal, up to a point where the micelle size increases dramatically. Zeta potential becomes more negative with calcium removal. At higher levels of calcium removal, the changes are not reversible, on reducing pH to its original value. For goat's milk, over the range 0-20% total calcium removal, relatively small reductions in total calcium gave rise to proportionally larger reductions in ionic calcium in a ratio of about 1:3.2.

Condensed tannins act against cattle nematodes

The use of natural plant anthelmintics was suggested as a possible alternative control of gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) in ruminants. Direct anthelmintic effects of tannin-containing plants have already been shown in sheep and goat GIN. These anthelmintic properties are mainly associated with condensed tannins. In the present study, we evaluated possible in vitro effects of three tannin-containing plants against bovine GIN. Effects of Onobrychis viciifolia, Lotus pedunculatus and Lotus corniculatus condensed tannin (CT) extracts on Cooperia oncophora and Ostertagia ostertagi were determined by a larval feeding inhibition assay (LFIA) and a larval exsheathment assay (LEA). In the LFIA, all three plant extracts significantly inhibited larval feeding behaviour of both C. oncophora and O. ostertagi first stage larvae in a dose-dependent manner. The L. pedunculatus extract, based on EC50 (effective concentration for 50% inhibition), was the most effective against both nematodes, followed by O. viciifolia and L. corniculatus. The effect of CT extracts upon larval feeding behaviour correlates with CT content and procyanidin/prodelphidin ratio. Larval exsheathment of C. oncophora and O. ostertagi L3 larvae (third stage larvae) was also affected by CT extracts from all three plants. In both in vitro assays, extracts with added polyvinylpolypyrrolidone, an inhibitor of tannins, generated almost the same values as the negative control; this confirms the role of CT in the anthelmintic effect of these plant extracts. Our results, therefore, indicated that tannin-containing plants could act against cattle nematodes.

Electronic properties, redox behavior, and interactions with H2O2 of pH-sensitive hydroxyphenyl-1,2,4-triazole-based oxovanadium(V)complexes

The syntheses and spectroscopic characterization of two 1,2,4-triazole-based oxovanadium(V) complexes are reported: 1(-)[VO(2)L1](-) and 2 [(VOL2)(2)(OMe)(2)] (where H(2)L1 = 3-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)-5-(pyridin-2"-yl)-H-1-1,2,4-triazole, H3L2 = bis-3,5-(2'-hydroxyphenyl)-1H-1,2,4-triazole). The ligand environment (N,N,O vs O,N,O) is found to have a profound influence on the properties and reactivity of the complexes formed. The presence of the triazolato ligand allows for pH tuning of the spectroscopic and electrochemical properties, as well as the interaction and stability of the complexes in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. The vanadium(IV) oxidation states were generated electrochemically and characterized by UV-vis and EPR spectroscopies, For 2, under acidic conditions, rapid exchange of the methoxide ligands with solvent [in particular, in the vanadium(IV) redox state] was observed.

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 in. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea- level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 colonization in small domestic ruminants

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 was first implicated in human disease in the early 1980s, with ruminants cited as the primary reservoirs. Preliminary studies indicated cattle to be the sole source of E. coli O157:H7 outbreaks in humans; however, further epidemiological studies soon demonstrated that E. coli O157:H7 was widespread in other food sources and that a number of transmission routes existed. More recently, small domestic ruminants (sheep and goats) have emerged as important sources of E. coli O157:H7 human infection, particularly with the widespread popularity of petting farms and the increased use of sheep and goat food products, including unpasteurized cheeses. Although the colonization and persistence characteristics of E. coli O157:H7 in the bovine host have been studied intensively, this is not the case for small ruminants. Despite many similarities to the bovine host, the pathobiology of E. coli O157:H7 in small domestic ruminants does appear to differ significantly from that described in cattle. This review aims to critically review the current knowledge regarding colonization and persistence of E. coli O157:H7 in small domestic ruminants, including comparisons with the bovine host where appropriate.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Colonization of 8-week-old conventionally reared goats by Escherichia coli O157:H7 after oral inoculation

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 : H7 infections of man have been associated with consumption of unpasteurized goat's milk and direct contact with kid goats on petting farms, yet little is known about colonization of goats with this organism. To assess the contribution of flagella and intimin of E coli O157 : H7 in colonization of the goat, 8-week-old conventionally reared goats were inoculated orally in separate experiments with 1 X 10(10) c.f.u. of a non-verotoxigenic strain of E coli O157: H7 (strain NCTC 12900 Nal(r)), an aflagellate derivative (DMB1) and an intimin-deficient derivative (DMB2). At 24 In after inoculation, the three E coli O157 : H7 strains were shed at approximately 5 X 1 04 c.f.u. (g faeces)(-1) from all animals. Significantly fewer intimin-deficient bacteria were shed only on days 2 (P = 0(.)003) and 4 (P = 0(.)014), whereas from day 7 to 29 there were no differences. Tissues from three animals inoculated with wild-type E coli O157 : H7 strain NCTC 12900 Nalr were sampled at 24,48 and 96 In after inoculation and the organism was cultured from the large intestine of all three animals and from the duodenum and ileum of the animal examined at 96 h. Tissues were examined histologically but attaching-effacing (AE) lesions were not observed at any intestinal site of the animals examined at 24 or 48 In. However, the animal examined at 96 h, which had uniquely shed approximately 1 x 10(7) E coli O157: H7 (g faeces)(-1) for the preceding 3 days, showed a heavy, diffuse infection with cryptosporidia. and abundant, multifocal AE lesions in the distal colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction. These AE lesions were confirmed by immunohistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.

Influence of colostrum deprivation and concurrent Cryptosporidium parvum infection on the colonization and persistence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in young lambs

Escherichia coli O157: H7 and Cryptosporidium parvum infections of man have been associated with direct contact with small ruminants. Colostrum protects neonates against gastrointestinal pathogens, and orphan lambs, which are common on petting farms, may be deprived of this protection. In a recent study, it was demonstrated that high shedding of E coli O157 : H7 by an 8-week-old goat kid was associated with coincidental C. parvum infection. Furthermore, both pathogens were co-located in the distal gastrointestinal tract. It was hypothesized that colostrum deprivation and pre-infection with C. parvum predisposed young ruminants to colonization and increased shedding of E coli O157: H7. To test this, 21 lambs 5 weeks of age were divided into four groups as follows: (A) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (B) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O157: H7, (C) conventionally reared and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (D) conventionally reared and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O15 7: H7. C. parvum was detected between 8 and 12 days post-inoculation in most of the infected lambs. At 24 h post-inoculation with E coli O157: H7, all lambs were shedding between 5 x 10(4) and 5 x 10(7) c.f.u. E coli O157: H7 per gram of faeces. E coli O157: H7 was shed in higher numbers in the groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum, whether conventionally reared or colostrum-deprived. Interestingly, for the colostrum-deprived lambs on day 3, a significant difference in shedding of E coli O157: H7 was observed (P= 0-038), with the lambs inoculated with E coli alone yielding higher counts than those pre-inoculated with C. parvum. From day 15 onwards, shedding of E coli O157: H7 was highest from the colostrum-deprived C. parvum-infected lambs, then (in descending order of shedding) the colostrum-deprived lambs, the conventionally reared lambs infected with C. parvum, and the conventionally reared animals. In total, four animals were euthanized, two at 24 h and two at 96 h post inoculation with E coli 0 157: H7 (two conventionally reared and two colostrum-deprived). All animals euthanized were from groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum prior to challenge with E coli O157 : H7. On examination of tissues, in three of the four animals examined, multifocal attaching and effacing lesions were observed in the caecum, colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction, and were confirmed by immunolhistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

The APE atlas

This Atlas presents statistical analyses of the simulations submitted to the Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE) data archive. The simulations are from global Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) applied to a water-covered earth. The AGCMs include ones actively used or being developed for numerical weather prediction or climate research. Some are mature, application models and others are more novel and thus less well tested in Earth-like applications. The experiment applies AGCMs with their complete parameterization package to an idealization of the planet Earth which has a greatly simplified lower boundary that consists of an ocean only. It has no land and its associated orography, and no sea ice. The ocean is represented by Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) which are specified everywhere with simple, idealized distributions. Thus in the hierarchy of tests available for AGCMs, APE falls between tests with simplified forcings such as those proposed by Held and Suarez (1994) and Boer and Denis (1997) and Earth-like simulations of the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP, Gates et al., 1999). Blackburn and Hoskins (2013) summarize the APE and its aims. They discuss where the APE fits within a modeling hierarchy which has evolved to evaluate complete models and which provides a link between realistic simulation and conceptual models of atmospheric phenomena. The APE bridges a gap in the existing hierarchy. The goals of APE are to provide a benchmark of current model behaviors and to stimulate research to understand the cause of inter-model differences., APE is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) joint Commission on Atmospheric Science (CAS), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE). Chapter 2 of this Atlas provides an overview of the specification of the eight APE experiments and of the data collected. Chapter 3 lists the participating models and includes brief descriptions of each. Chapters 4 through 7 present a wide variety of statistics from the 14 participating models for the eight different experiments. Additional intercomparison figures created by Dr. Yukiko Yamada in AGU group are available at http://www.gfd-dennou.org/library/ape/comparison/. This Atlas is intended to present and compare the statistics of the APE simulations but does not contain a discussion of interpretive analyses. Such analyses are left for journal papers such as those included in the Special Issue of the Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan (2013, Vol. 91A) devoted to the APE. Two papers in that collection provide an overview of the simulations. One (Blackburn et al., 2013) concentrates on the CONTROL simulation and the other (Williamson et al., 2013) on the response to changes in the meridional SST profile. Additional papers provide more detailed analysis of the basic simulations, while others describe various sensitivities and applications. The APE experiment data base holds a wealth of data that is now publicly available from the APE web site: http://climate.ncas.ac.uk/ape/. We hope that this Atlas will stimulate future analyses and investigations to understand the large variation seen in the model behaviors.