Bryophyte diversity and community structure on thatched roofs of the Holnicote Estate, Somerset, U.K.

We investigated patterns of bryophyte species richness and community structure, and their relation to roof variables, on thatched roofs of the Holnicote Estate, South Somerset. Thirty-two bryophyte species were recorded from 28 sampled roofs, including the globally rare and endangered thatch moss, Leptodontium gemmascens. Multiple regression analyses revealed that thatch age has a highly significant positive effect on the number of species present, accounting for nearly half the observed variation in species richness after removal of outliers. Aspect has a slight and marginally significant effect on species diversity (accounting for an additional 6% of variation), with north-facing samples having slightly more species. Age also has a significant impact on total bryophyte cover after removal of outlying observations. TWINSPAN analysis of bryophyte cover data suggests the existence of at least five discrete communities. Simple Discriminant Analyses indicate that these communities occupy different ecological subspaces as defined by the measured roof variables, with pitch, aspect and thatch age emerging as especially significant attributes. Contingency Analysis indicates that some communities are disfavoured by water reed as compared to wheat straw. The findings are significant for understanding the structure of bryophyte communities, for evaluating the effect of bryophyte cover on thatch performance, and for conservation of thatch communities, especially those harbouring rare species.

Results of an aqueous source term model for a radiological risk assessment of the Drigg LLW Site, U.K.

A radionuclide source term model has been developed which simulates the biogeochemical evolution of the Drigg low level waste (LLW) disposal site. The DRINK (DRIgg Near field Kinetic) model provides data regarding radionuclide concentrations in groundwater over a period of 100,000 years, which are used as input to assessment calculations for a groundwater pathway. The DRINK model also provides input to human intrusion and gaseous assessment calculations through simulation of the solid radionuclide inventory. These calculations are being used to support the Drigg post closure safety case. The DRINK model considers the coupled interaction of the effects of fluid flow, microbiology, corrosion, chemical reaction, sorption and radioactive decay. It represents the first direct use of a mechanistic reaction-transport model in risk assessment calculations.

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

Evaluating the likelihood of the adoption of an animal welfare assessment system in European agri-food supply chains

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the likelihood of adoption of a recently designed Welfare Assessment System in agri-food supply chains and the factors affecting the adoption decision. The application is carried out for pig and poultry chains. Design/methodology/approach – This research consisted of two main components: interviews with retailers in pig and poultry supply chains in eight different EU countries to explore their perceptions towards the adoption possibilities of the welfare assessment system; and a conjoint analysis designed to evaluate the perceived adoption likelihood of the assessment system by different Standards Formulating Organisations (SFOs). Findings – Stakeholders were found to be especially concerned about the costs of implementation of the system and how it could, or should, be merged with existing assurance schemes. Another conclusion of the study is that the presence of a strong third independent party supporting the implementation of the welfare assessment system would be the most important influence on the decision whether, or not, to adopt it. Originality/value – This research evaluates the adoption possibilities of a novel Welfare Assessment System and presents the views of different supply chain stakeholders on an adoption of such a system. The main factors affecting the adoption decision are identified and analysed. Contrary to expectations, the costs of adoption of a new welfare assessment system were not considered to be the most important factor affecting the decision of supply chain stakeholders about the adoption of this new welfare system.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ∼50 mW m−2 K−1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m−2 K−1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (∼38 mW m−2 K−1). Another 13 mW m−2 K−1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m−2 K−1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ∼1 mW m−2 K−1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m−2 K−1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.

Palaeohydrology of the Fazzan Basin and surrounding regions: The last 7 million years

We have integrated information on topography, geology and geomorphology with the results of targeted fieldwork in order to develop a chronology for the development of Lake Megafazzan, a giant lake that has periodically existed in the Fazzan Basin since the late Miocene. The development of the basin can be best understood by considering the main geological and geomorphological events that occurred thought Libya during this period and thus an overview of the palaeohydrology of all Libya is also presented. The origin of the Fazzan Basin appears to lie in the Late Miocene. At this time Libya was dominated by two large rivers systems that flowed into the Mediterranean Sea, the Sahabi River draining central and eastern Libya and the Wadi Nashu River draining much of western Libya. As the Miocene progressed the region become increasingly affected by volcanic activity on its northern and eastern margin that appears to have blocked the River Nashu in Late Miocene or early Messinian times forming a sizeable closed basin in the Fazzan within which proto-Lake Megafazzan would have developed during humid periods. The fall in base level associated with the Messinian desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea promoted down-cutting and extension of river systems throughout much of Libya. To the south of the proto Fazzan Basin the Sahabi River tributary know as Wadi Barjuj appears to have expanded its headwaters westwards. The channel now terminates at Al Haruj al Aswad. We interpret this as a suggestion that Wadi Barjuj was blocked by the progressive development of Al Haruj al Aswad. K/Ar dating of lava flows suggests that this occurred between 4 and 2 Ma. This event would have increased the size of the closed basin in the Fazzan by about half, producing a catchment close to its current size (-350,000 km(2)). The Fazzan Basin contains a wealth of Pleistocene to recent palaeolake sediment outcrops and shorelines. Dating of these features demonstrates evidence of lacustrine conditions during numerous interglacials spanning a period greater than 420 ka. The middle to late Pleistocene interglacials were humid enough to produce a giant lake of about 135,000 km(2) that we have called Lake Megafazzan. Later lake phases were smaller, the interglacials less humid, developing lakes of a few thousand square kilometres. In parallel with these palaeohydrological developments in the Fazzan Basin, change was occurring in other parts of Libya. The Lower Pliocene sea level rise caused sediments to infill much of the Messinian channel system. As this was occurring, subsidence in the Al Kufrah Basin caused expansion of the Al Kufrah River system at the expense of the River Sahabi. By the Pleistocene, the Al Kufrah River dominated the palaeohydrology of eastern Libya and had developed a very large inland delta in its northern reaches that exhibited a complex distributary channel network which at times fed substantial lakes in the Sirt Basin. At this time Libya was a veritable lake district during humid periods with about 10% of the country underwater. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake in the North Atlantic in models of the ocean carbon cycle

The uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic is investigated using different configurations of ocean general circulation/carbon cycle models. We investigate how different representations of the ocean physics in the models, which represent the range of models currently in use, affect the evolution of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic. The buffer effect of the ocean carbon system would be expected to reduce ocean CO2 uptake as the ocean absorbs increasing amounts of CO2. We find that the strength of the buffer effect is very dependent on the model ocean state, as it affects both the magnitude and timing of the changes in uptake. The timescale over which uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic drops to below preindustrial levels is particularly sensitive to the ocean state which sets the degree of buffering; it is less sensitive to the choice of atmospheric CO2 forcing scenario. Neglecting physical climate change effects, North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops below preindustrial levels between 50 and 300 years after stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in different model configurations. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic varies much less among the different model configurations, as differences in ocean transport of dissolved inorganic carbon and uptake of CO2 compensate each other. This supports the idea that measured inventories of anthropogenic carbon in the real ocean cannot be used to constrain the surface uptake. Including physical climate change effects reduces anthropogenic CO2 uptake and storage in the North Atlantic further, due to the combined effects of surface warming, increased freshwater input, and a slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation. The timescale over which North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops to below preindustrial levels is reduced by about one-third, leading to an estimate of this timescale for the real world of about 50 years after the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2. In the climate change experiment, a shallowing of the mixed layer depths in the North Atlantic results in a significant reduction in primary production, reducing the potential role for biology in drawing down anthropogenic CO2.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic study of the germylene addition reaction, CH3C CCH3

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser. ash photolysis of 3,4-dimethyl-1-germacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with 2-butyne, CH3C CCH3. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 300-556 K. The second order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high pressure limits at each temperature, fitted the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.46 +/- 10.06) + (5.16 +/- 10.47) kJ mol(-1)/ RT ln 10 Calculations of the energy surface of the GeC4H8 reaction system were carried out employing the additivity principle, by combining previous quantum chemical calculations of related reaction systems. These support formation of 1,2-dimethylvinylgermylene (rather than 2,3-dimethylgermirene) as the end product. RRKM calculations of the pressure dependence of the reaction are in reasonable agreement with this finding. The reactions of GeH2 with C2H2 and with CH3CRCCH3 are compared and contrasted.

Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

The energy-cycle analysis of the interactions between shallow and deep atmospheric convection

Interactions between different convection modes can be investigated using an energy–cycle description under a framework of mass–flux parameterization. The present paper systematically investigates this system by taking a limit of two modes: shallow and deep convection. Shallow convection destabilizes itself as well as the other convective modes by moistening and cooling the environment, whereas deep convection stabilizes itself as well as the other modes by drying and warming the environment. As a result, shallow convection leads to a runaway growth process in its stand–alone mode, whereas deep convection simply damps out. Interaction between these two convective modes becomes a rich problem, even when it is limited to the case with no large–scale forcing, because of these opposing tendencies. Only if the two modes are coupled at a proper level can a self–sustaining system arise, exhibiting a periodic cycle. The present study establishes the conditions for self–sustaining periodic solutions. It carefully documents the behaviour of the two mode system in order to facilitate the interpretation of global model behaviours when this energy–cycle is implemented as a closure into a convection parameterization in future.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magnetic reconnection: III. Quasi-instantaneous convection responses in the Cowley-Lockwood paradigm

Using a numerical implementation of the Cowley and Lockwood (1992) model of flow excitation in the magnetosphere–ionosphere (MI) system, we show that both an expanding (on a _12-min timescale) and a quasiinstantaneous response in ionospheric convection to the onset of magnetopause reconnection can be accommodated by the Cowley–Lockwood conceptual framework. This model has a key feature of time dependence, necessarily considering the history of the coupled MI system. We show that a residual flow, driven by prior magnetopause reconnection, can produce a quasi-instantaneous global ionospheric convection response; perturbations from an equilibrium state may also be present from tail reconnection, which will superpose constructively to give a similar effect. On the other hand, when the MI system is relatively free of pre-existing flow, we can most clearly see the expanding nature of the response. As the open-closed field line boundary will frequently be in motion from such prior reconnection (both at the dayside magnetopause and in the cross-tail current sheet), it is expected that there will usually be some level of combined response to dayside reconnection.