A critical assessment of a desk study comparing crop production systems: The example of the 'system of rice intensification' versus 'best management practice'

When assessing hypotheses, the possibility and consequences of false-positive conclusions should be considered along with the avoidance of false-negative ones. A recent assessment of the system of rice intensification (SRI) by McDonald et al. [McDonald, A.J., Hobbs, P.R., Riha, S.J., 2006. Does the system of rice intensification outperform conventional best management? A synopsis of the empirical record. Field Crops Res. 96, 31-36] provides a good example where this was not done as it was preoccupied with avoiding false-positives only. It concluded, based on a desk study using secondary data assembled selectively from diverse sources and with a 95% level of confidence, that 'best management practices' (BMPs) on average produce 11% higher rice yields than SRI methods, and that, therefore, SRI has little to offer beyond what is already known by scientists.

Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

The best of both worlds: Producing national statistics using participatory methods

This paper presents our experience with combining statistical principles and participatory methods to generate national statistics. The methodology was developed in Malawi during 1999–2002. We demonstrate that if PRA is combined with statistical principles (including probability-based sampling and standardization), it can produce total population statistics and estimates of the proportion of households with certain characteristics (e.g., poverty). It can also provide quantitative data on complex issues of national importance such as poverty targeting. This approach is distinct from previous PRA-based approaches, which generate numbers at community level but only provide qualitative information at national level.

Who knows best? Awareness of divided attention difficulty in a neurological rehabilitation setting

Objective: To explore whether patients relearning to walk after acquired brain injury and showing cognitive-motor interference were aware of divided attention difficulty; whether their perceptions concurred with those of treating staff. Design: Patients and neurophysiotherapists (from rehabilitation and disabled wards) completed questionnaires. Factor analyses were applied to responses. Correlations between responses, clinical measures and experimental decrements were examined. Results: Patient/staff responses showed some agreement; staff reported higher levels of perceived difficulty; responses conformed to two factors. One factor (staff/patients alike) reflected expectations about functional/motor status and did not correlate with decrements. The other factor (patients) correlated significantly with dual-task motor decrement, suggesting some genuine awareness of difficulty (cognitive performance prioritized over motor control). The other factor (staff) correlated significantly with cognitive decrement (gait prioritized over sustained attention). Conclusions: Despite some inaccurate estimation of susceptibility; patients and staff do exhibit awareness of divided attention difficulty, but with a limited degree of concurrence. In fact, our results suggest that patients and staff may be sensitive to different aspects of the deficit. Rather than 'Who knows best?', it is a question of 'Who knows what?.

Investigating scaling of an abstracted LCS utilising ternary and S-Expression alphabets

Utilising the expressive power of S-Expressions in Learning Classifier Systems often prohibitively increases the search space due to increased flexibility of the endcoding. This work shows that selection of appropriate S-Expression functions through domain knowledge improves scaling in problems, as expected. It is also known that simple alphabets perform well on relatively small sized problems in a domain, e.g. ternary alphabet in the 6, 11 and 20 bit MUX domain. Once fit ternary rules have been formed it was investigated whether higher order learning was possible and whether this staged learning facilitated selection of appropriate functions in complex alphabets, e.g. selection of S-Expression functions. This novel methodology is shown to provide compact results (135-MUX) and exhibits potential for scaling well (1034-MUX), but is only a small step towards introducing abstraction to LCS.

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

Phylogeny and metabolic scaling in mammals

The scaling of metabolic rates to body size is widely considered to be of great biological and ecological importance, and much attention has been devoted to determining its theoretical and empirical value. Most debate centers on whether the underlying power law describing metabolic rates is 2/3 (as predicted by scaling of surface area/volume relationships) or 3/4 ("Kleiber's law"). Although recent evidence suggests that empirically derived exponents vary among clades with radically different metabolic strategies, such as ectotherms and endotherms, models, such as the metabolic theory of ecology, depend on the assumption that there is at least a predominant, if not universal, metabolic scaling exponent. Most analyses claimed to support the predictions of general models, however, failed to control for phylogeny. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares models to estimate allometric slopes for both basal metabolic rate (BMR) and field metabolic rate (FMR) in mammals. Metabolic rate scaling conformed to no single theoretical prediction, but varied significantly among phylogenetic lineages. In some lineages we found a 3/4 exponent, in others a 2/3 exponent, and in yet others exponents differed significantly from both theoretical values. Analysis of the phylogenetic signal in the data indicated that the assumptions of neither species-level analysis nor independent contrasts were met. Analyses that assumed no phylogenetic signal in the data (species-level analysis) or a strong phylogenetic signal (independent contrasts), therefore, returned estimates of allometric slopes that were erroneous in 30% and 50% of cases, respectively. Hence, quantitative estimation of the phylogenetic signal is essential for determining scaling exponents. The lack of evidence for a predominant scaling exponent in these analyses suggests that general models of metabolic scaling, and macro-ecological theories that depend on them, have little explanatory power.

Proposed best practice for statisticians in the reporting and publication of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community.

Fast regridding of large, complex geospatial datasets

In the earth sciences, data are commonly cast on complex grids in order to model irregular domains such as coastlines, or to evenly distribute grid points over the globe. It is common for a scientist to wish to re-cast such data onto a grid that is more amenable to manipulation, visualization, or comparison with other data sources. The complexity of the grids presents a significant technical difficulty to the regridding process. In particular, the regridding of complex grids may suffer from severe performance issues, in the worst case scaling with the product of the sizes of the source and destination grids. We present a mechanism for the fast regridding of such datasets, based upon the construction of a spatial index that allows fast searching of the source grid. We discover that the most efficient spatial index under test (in terms of memory usage and query time) is a simple look-up table. A kd-tree implementation was found to be faster to build and to give similar query performance at the expense of a larger memory footprint. Using our approach, we demonstrate that regridding of complex data may proceed at speeds sufficient to permit regridding on-the-fly in an interactive visualization application, or in a Web Map Service implementation. For large datasets with complex grids the new mechanism is shown to significantly outperform algorithms used in many scientific visualization packages.