Predicting microbial pollution concentrations in UK rivers in response to land use change

The Water Framework Directive has caused a paradigm shift towards the integrated management of recreational water quality through the development of drainage basin-wide programmes of measures. This has increased the need for a cost-effective diagnostic tool capable of accurately predicting riverine faecal indicator organism (FIO) concentrations. This paper outlines the application of models developed to fulfil this need, which represent the first transferrable generic FIO models to be developed for the UK to incorporate direct measures of key FIO sources (namely human and livestock population data) as predictor variables. We apply a recently developed transfer methodology, which enables the quantification of geometric mean presumptive faecal coliforms and presumptive intestinal enterococci concentrations for base- and high-flow during the summer bathing season in unmonitored UK watercourses, to predict FIO concentrations in the Humber river basin district. Because the FIO models incorporate explanatory variables which allow the effects of policy measures which influence livestock stocking rates to be assessed, we carry out empirical analysis of the differential effects of seven land use management and policy instruments (fiscal constraint, production constraint, cost intervention, area intervention, demand-side constraint, input constraint, and micro-level land use management) all of which can be used to reduce riverine FIO concentrations. This research provides insights into FIO source apportionment, explores a selection of pollution remediation strategies and the spatial differentiation of land use policies which could be implemented to deliver river quality improvements. All of the policy tools we model reduce FIO concentrations in rivers but our research suggests that the installation of streamside fencing in intensive milk producing areas may be the single most effective land management strategy to reduce riverine microbial pollution.

A survey of primary homology assessment: different botanists perceive and define characters in different ways

Cladistic analyses begin with an assessment of variation for a group of organisms and the subsequent representation of that variation as a data matrix. The step of converting observed organismal variation into a data matrix has been considered subjective, contentious, under-investigated, imprecise, unquantifiable, intuitive, as a black-box, and at the same time as ultimately the most influential phase of any cladistic analysis (Pimentel and Riggins, 1987; Bryant, 1989; Pogue and Mickevich, 1990; de Pinna, 1991; Stevens, 1991; Bateman et al., 1992; Smith, 1994; Pleijel, 1995; Wilkinson, 1995; Patterson and Johnson, 1997). Despite the concerns of these authors, primary homology assessment is often perceived as reproducible. In a recent paper, Hawkins et al. (1997) reiterated two points made by a number of these authors: that different interpretations of characters and coding are possible and that different workers will perceive and define characters in different ways. One reviewer challenged us: did we really think that two people working on the same group would come up with different data sets? The conflicting views regarding the reproducibility of the cladistic character matrix provoke a number of questions. Do the majority of workers consistently follow the same guidelines? Has the theoretical framework informing primary homology assessment been adequately explored? The objective of this study is to classify approaches to primary homology assessment, and to quantify the extent to which different approaches are found in the literature by examining variation in the way characters are defined and coded in a data matrix.

Evolutionary developmental biology: impact on systematic theory and practice, and the contribution of systematics

Evolutionary developmental genetics brings together systematists, morphologists and developmental geneticists; it will therefore impact on each of these component disciplines. The goals and methods of phylogenetic analysis are reviewed here, and the contribution of evolutionary developmental genetics to morphological systematics, in terms of character conceptualisation and primary homology assessment, is discussed. Evolutionary developmental genetics, like its component disciplines phylogenetic systematics and comparative morphology, is concerned with homology concepts. Phylogenetic concepts of homology and their limitations are considered here, and the need for independent homology statements at different levels of biological organisation is evaluated. The role of systematics in evolutionary developmental genetics is outlined. Phylogenetic systematics and comparative morphology will suggest effective sampling strategies to developmental geneticists. Phylogenetic systematics provides hypotheses of character evolution (including parallel evolution and convergence), stimulating investigations into the evolutionary gains and losses of morphologies. Comparative morphology identifies those structures that are not easily amenable to typological categorisation, and that may be of particular interest in terms of developmental genetics. The concepts of latent homology and genetic recall may also prove useful in the evolutionary interpretation of developmental genetic data.

Contract cheating & the market in essays

We conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by University students. We investigate student demand for essays, using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential Holt-Laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences. Students stated willingness to participate in the essay market, and their valuation of purchased essays, vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment. Risk preferring students, those working in a non-native language, and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more. Purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase.

A prospectus for future geomorphological investigation of the Namib sand sea

The Namib Sand Sea in southern Africa offers an ideal location in which to consider general questions about the evolution of sand seas, about the fluxes of sand through contemporary dune fields and about the patterns of dune form that are created. This paper aims to provide a concise account of the approaches and techniques that are currently being used and will be used in the future to address these questions. The paper considers the techniques employed to investigate wind climate, the morphometry of the dunes, the internal structure of dune sediments, the age of the dunes and the potential to model dune development