Improving survival of probiotic bacteria using bacterial poly-γ-glutamic acid

A major hurdle in producing a useful probiotic food product is bacterial survival during storage and ingestion. The aim of this study was to test the effect of γ-PGA immobilisation on the survival of probiotic bacteria when stored in acidic fruit juice. Fruit juices provide an alternative means of probiotic delivery, especially to lactose intolerant individuals. In addition, the survival of γ-PGA-immobilised cells in simulated gastric juice was also assessed. Bifidobacteria strains (B. longum, B. breve), immobilised on 2.5 % γ-PGA, survived significantly better (P < 0.05) in orange and pomegranate juice for 39 and 11 days respectively, compared to free cells. However, cells survived significantly better (P < 0.05) when stored in orange juice compared to pomegranate juice. Moreover, both strains, when protected with 2.5 % γ-PGA, survived in simulated gastric juice (pH 2.0) with a marginal reduction (<0.47 log CFU/ml) or no significant reduction in viable cells after four hours, whereas free cells died within two hours. In conclusion, this research indicates that γ-PGA can be used to protect Bifidobacteria cells in fruit juice, and could also help improve the survival of cells as they pass through the harsh conditions of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). Following our previous report on the use of γ-PGA as a cryoprotectant for probiotic bacteria, this research further suggests that γ-PGA could be used to improve probiotic survival during the various stages of preparation, storage and ingestion of probiotic cells.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

Debate over the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important drivers of extinction, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following minor improvements or changes in the dates of extinctions and human colonisation.