Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC.

Design of a turn-linker-turn foldamer by incorporating meta-amino benzoic acid in the middle of a helix forming hexapeptide sequence: A helix breaking approach

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies reveal that the incorporation of meta-amino benzoic acid in the middle of a helix forming hexapeptide sequence such as in peptide I Boc-Ile(1)-Aib(2)-Val(3)-m-ABA(4)-Ile(5)-Aib(6)-Leu(7)-OMe (Aib: alpha-amino isobutyric acid: m-ABA: meta-amino benzoic acid) breaks the helix propagation to produce a turn-linker-turn (T-L-T) foldamer in the solid state. In the crystalline state two conformational isomers of peptide I self-assemble in antiparallel fashion through intermolecular hydrogen bonds and aromatic pi-pi interactions to form a molecular duplex. The duplexes are further interconnected through intermolecular hydrogen bonds to form a layer of peptides. The layers are stacked one on top of the other through van der Waals interactions to form hydrophilic channels filled with solvent methanol. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stereodivergent approach to the asymmetric synthesis of bacillariolides: A formal synthesis of ent-bacillariolide II

Asymmetric synthesis of densely functionalized bicyclic frameworks for entry into bacillariolides I/III and ent-bacillariolide II is reported. The key features are ring-closing metathesis of a pair of diastereomerically related dienes obtained through a stereodivergent route from a R-(+)-glyceraldehyde derivative, transformation of a nonstereoselective cyclopentene ester enolate alkylation process to a completely stereoselective one through alkylation of a bulky ester enolate with a bulky electrophile, and a remote silyloxymethyl group directed epoxidation.

Synthesis of fused cyclic systems containing medium-sized rings through tandem ROM-RCM of norbornene derivatives embedded in a carbohydrate template

A general approach for the synthesis of fused cyclic systems containing medium-sized rings (7-9) has been developed. The key steps involve a diastereoface-selective Diels-Alder reaction of the dienophiles 4a-d attached to a furanosugar with cyclopentadiene and ring opening (ROM)-ring closing metathesis (RCM) of the resulting norbornene derivatives 10a-d and 11a-d. Diels-Alder reaction of the dienophiles 4a-d with cyclopentadiene in the absence of a catalyst produced 10a-d as the major product arising through addition of the diene to the unhindered Si-face. The most interesting and new aspect of the Diels-Alder reaction of these dienophiles is the accessibility of the Re-face that was blocked by the alkenyl chains under Lewis acid catalysis producing the diastereoisomers 11a-d exclusively. The reversal of facial selectivity from an uncatalyzed reaction to a catalyzed one is unprecedented. The observed stereochemical dichotomy is attributed to rotation of the enone moiety along the or bond linking the sugar moiety during formation of the chelate 13. This makes the Re-face of the enone moiety in 4a-d unhindered. Diels-Alder reaction of the carbocyclic analogue 15 under Lewis acid catalysis produced a 1: 1 mixture of the adducts 16 and 17 confirming the participation of sugar ring oxygen in chelate formation. Finally ROM-RCM of 10a-d and 11a-d with Grubbs' catalyst afforded the cis-syn-cis and cis-anti-cis bicyclo-annulated sugars 21a-d and 23a-d, respectively, containing 7-9 membered rings.

Sequential ring-closing metathesis and nitrone cycloaddition on glucose-derived substrates: a divergent approach to analogues of spiroannulated carbanucleosides and conformationally locked nucleosides

The carbohydrate-derived substrate 3-C-allyl-1,2: 5,6-di-O-isopropylidene-alpha-D-allofuranose was judiciously manipulated for preparing suitable synthons, which could be converted to a variety of isoxazolidino-spirocycles and -tricycles through the application of ring-closing metathesis (RCM) and intramolecular nitrone cycloaddition (INC) reactions. Cleavage of the isoxazolidine rings of some of these derivatives by tranfer hydrogenolysis followed by coupling of the generated amino functionalities with 5-amino-4,6-dichloropyrimidine furnished the corresponding chloropyrimidine nucleosides, which were elaborated to spiroannulated carbanucleosides and conformationally locked bicyclo[2.2.1] heptane/ oxa-bicyclo[3.2.1]octane nucleosides. However, use of higher temperature for the cyclization of one of the chloropyrimidines led to the dimethylaminopurine analogue as a sole product, formed via nucleophilic displacement of the chloro group by dimethylamine generated from DMF.

Contextualist research: Iterating between methods while following an empirically grounded approach

An alternative approach to research is described that has been developed through a succession of significant construction management research projects. The approach follows the principles of iterative grounded theory, whereby researchers iterate between alternative theoretical frameworks and emergent empirical data. Of particular importance is an orientation toward mixing methods, thereby overcoming the existing tendency to dichotomize quantitative and qualitative approaches. The approach is positioned against the existing contested literature on grounded theory, and the possibility of engaging with empirical data in a “theory free” manner is discounted. Emphasis instead is given to the way in which researchers must be theoretically sensitive as a result of being steeped in relevant literatures. Knowledge of existing literatures therefore shapes the initial research design; but emergent empirical findings cause fresh theoretical perspectives to be mobilized. The advocated approach is further aligned with notions of knowledge coproduction and the underlying principles of contextualist research. It is this unique combination of ideas which characterizes the paper's contribution to the research methodology literature within the field of construction management. Examples are provided and consideration is given to the extent to which the emergent findings are generalizable beyond the specific context from which they are derived.

Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract

This paper extends the build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to a new method for identifying a concession period by using bargaining-game theory. Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract, and there are few methodologies available for helping to determine the value of this variable. The BOTCcM presents an alternative method by which a group of concession period solutions are produced. Nevertheless, a typical weakness in using BOTCcM is that the model cannot recommend a specific time span for concessionary. This paper introduces a new method called BOT bargaining concession model (BOTBaC) to enable the identification of a specific concession period, which takes into account the bargaining behavior of the two parties concerned in engaging a BOT contract, namely, the investor and the government concerned. The application of BOTBaC is demonstrated through using an example case.

Developing a quantitative approach for determining the in vitro prebiotic potential of dietary oligosaccharides

Prebiotics are nondigestible carbohydrates that beneficially affect the host by selectively stimulating the growth and/or activity of one, or a limited number of, bacteria present in the colon. The selected genera should have the capacity to improve host health (e.g. Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus). To help identify preferred types, for inclusion into the diet, a quantitative equation [measure of the prebiotic effect (MPE)] is suggested. This will help evaluate, in vitro, the fermentation of dietary carbohydrates and compare their prebiotic effect. Although the approach is not meant to define health values, it is formulated to better inform the choice of prebiotic. It therefore, compares measurements of bacterial changes through the determination of maximum growth rates of predominant groups present in faeces, rate of substrate assimilation and the production of lactic, acetic, propionic and butyric acids. The equation will allow further in vitro comparisons of MPE, leading towards further studies (e.g. in humans) to determine the success of dietary intervention. (C) 2004 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet activation through inhibition of multiple components of the glycoprotein VI signaling pathway

Background: The regulation of platelet function by pharmacological agents that modulate platelet signaling haspharmacolo proven a successful approach to the prevention of thrombosis. A variety of molecules present in the diet have been shown to inhibit platelet activation, including the antioxidant quercetin. Objectives: In this report we investigate the molecular mechanisms through which quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation. Methods: The effect of quercetin on platelet aggregation, intracellular calcium release, whole cell tyrosine phosphorylation and intracellular signaling events including tyrosine phosphorylation and kinase activity of proteins involved in the collagen-stimulated glycoprotein (GP) signaling pathway were investigated. Results: We report that quercetin inhibits collagen-stimulated whole cell protein tyrosine phosphorylation and intracellular mobilization of calcium, in a concentration-dependent manner. Quercetin was also found to inhibit various events in signaling generated by the collagen receptor GPVI. This includes collagen-stimulated tyrosine phosphorylation of the Fc receptor gamma-chain, Syk, LAT and phospholipase Cgamma2. Inhibition of phosphorylation of the Fc receptor gamma-chain suggests that quercetin inhibits early signaling events following stimulation of platelets with collagen. The activity of the kinases that phosphorylate the Fc receptor gamma-chain, Fyn and Lyn, as well as the tyrosine kinase Syk and phosphoinositide 3-kinase was also inhibited by quercetin in a concentration-dependent manner, both in whole cells and in isolation. Conclusions: The present results provide a molecular basis for the inhibition by quercetin of collagen-stimulated platelet activation, through inhibition of multiple components of the GPVI signaling pathway, and may begin to explain the proposed health benefits of high quercetin intake.

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach for enhanced auto-tracking of seismic events

The main activity carried out by the geophysicist when interpreting seismic data, in terms of both importance and time spent is tracking (or picking) seismic events. in practice, this activity turns out to be rather challenging, particularly when the targeted event is interrupted by discontinuities such as geological faults or exhibits lateral changes in seismic character. In recent years, several automated schemes, known as auto-trackers, have been developed to assist the interpreter in this tedious and time-consuming task. The automatic tracking tool available in modem interpretation software packages often employs artificial neural networks (ANN's) to identify seismic picks belonging to target events through a pattern recognition process. The ability of ANNs to track horizons across discontinuities largely depends on how reliably data patterns characterise these horizons. While seismic attributes are commonly used to characterise amplitude peaks forming a seismic horizon, some researchers in the field claim that inherent seismic information is lost in the attribute extraction process and advocate instead the use of raw data (amplitude samples). This paper investigates the performance of ANNs using either characterisation methods, and demonstrates how the complementarity of both seismic attributes and raw data can be exploited in conjunction with other geological information in a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to achieve an enhanced auto-tracking performance.

3D path planning with novel multiple 2D layered approach for complex human-robot interaction

Navigating cluttered indoor environments is a difficult problem in indoor service robotics. The Acroboter concept, a novel approach to indoor locomotion, represents unique opportunity to avoid obstacles in indoor environments by navigating the ceiling plane. This mode of locomotion requires the ability to accurately detect obstacles, and plan 3D trajectories through the environment. This paper presents the development of a resilient object tracking system, as well as a novel approach to generating 3D paths suitable for such robot configurations. Distributed human-machine interfacing allowing simulation previewing of actions is also considered in the developed system architecture.

Analysing Google rankings through search engine optimization data

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to identify the most popular techniques used to rank a web page highly in Google. Design/methodology/approach - The paper presents the results of a study into 50 highly optimized web pages that were created as part of a Search Engine Optimization competition. The study focuses on the most popular techniques that were used to rank highest in this competition, and includes an analysis on the use of PageRank, number of pages, number of in-links, domain age and the use of third party sites such as directories and social bookmarking sites. A separate study was made into 50 non-optimized web pages for comparison. Findings - The paper provides insight into the techniques that successful Search Engine Optimizers use to ensure a page ranks highly in Google. Recognizes the importance of PageRank and links as well as directories and social bookmarking sites. Research limitations/implications - Only the top 50 web sites for a specific query were analyzed. Analysing more web sites and comparing with similar studies in different competition would provide more concrete results. Practical implications - The paper offers a revealing insight into the techniques used by industry experts to rank highly in Google, and the success or other-wise of those techniques. Originality/value - This paper fulfils an identified need for web sites and e-commerce sites keen to attract a wider web audience.

A Gentle/S approach to robot assisted neuro-rehabilitation

Movement disorders (MD) include a group of neurological disorders that involve neuromotor systems. MD can result in several abnormalities ranging from an inability to move, to severe constant and excessive movements. Strokes are a leading cause of disability affecting largely the older people worldwide. Traditional treatments rely on the use of physiotherapy that is partially based on theories and also heavily reliant on the therapists training and past experience. The lack of evidence to prove that one treatment is more effective than any other makes the rehabilitation of stroke patients a difficult task. UL motor re-learning and recovery levels tend to improve with intensive physiotherapy delivery. The need for conclusive evidence supporting one method over the other and the need to stimulate the stroke patient clearly suggest that traditional methods lack high motivational content, as well as objective standardised analytical methods for evaluating a patient's performance and assessment of therapy effectiveness. Despite all the advances in machine mediated therapies, there is still a need to improve therapy tools. This chapter describes a new approach to robot assisted neuro-rehabilitation for upper limb rehabilitation. Gentle/S introduces a new approach on the integration of appropriate haptic technologies to high quality virtual environments, so as to deliver challenging and meaningful therapies to people with upper limb impairment in consequence of a stroke. The described approach can enhance traditional therapy tools, provide therapy "on demand" and can present accurate objective measurements of a patient's progression. Our recent studies suggest the use of tele-presence and VR-based systems can potentially motivate patients to exercise for longer periods of time. Two identical prototypes have undergone extended clinical trials in the UK and Ireland with a cohort of 30 stroke subjects. From the lessons learnt with the Gentle/S approach, it is clear also that high quality therapy devices of this nature have a role in future delivery of stroke rehabilitation, and machine mediated therapies should be available to patient and his/her clinical team from initial hospital admission, through to long term placement in the patient's home following hospital discharge.

Dynamics of brand competition: Effects of unobserved social networks

Brand competition is modelled using an agent based approach in order to examine the long run dynamics of market structure and brand characteristics. A repeated game is designed where myopic firms choose strategies based on beliefs about their rivals and consumers. Consumers are heterogeneous and can observe neighbour behaviour through social networks. Although firms do not observe them, the social networks have a significant impact on the emerging market structure. Presence of networks tends to polarize market share and leads to higher volatility in brands. Yet convergence in brand characteristics usually happens whenever the market reaches a steady state. Scale-free networks accentuate the polarization and volatility more than small world or random networks. Unilateral innovations are less frequent under social networks.