Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

‘New World and Old Europe: American Screen Images of Britain and France‘

Contrary to the dearly held belief by Britons that among the nations of the world, they are the favourites of the Americans, Holliwood movies show that even today, judging by the accents of "baddies", the English incarnate the arch-enemy. French villains come a close second. Britain and France are the reactionary, corrupt "old Europe" from whom the Americans tried to cut away ever since 1775, and it is actually the Central-East European countries who as "new Europe" enjoy greater popularity as bearers of hope.

Squirmish at the Oasis: an evening of performance and rant hosted by Agency of Noise at the Kinsgate Workshsops Trust in affiliation with Camden Arts Centre

Squirmish at the Oasis takes its name from Luigi Russolo's fourth noise network 'Skirmish at the Oasis' performed in Milan in 1913. 100 years on the Agency of Noise contemplate changes in technology and the culture industry that provoke new questions around the deliberate use of noise within music and art. Through live acts of enquiry and experimentation five artists unravel paradoxes associated with the use of noise in art, music and the gallery space. The works challenge tensions, contradictions and possible oxymorons that emerge through the use and acceptance of noise within an artistic framework. Featuring: DAISY DIXON / GRAHAM DUNNING / POLLYFIBRE / DANE SUTHERLAND / MARNIE WATTS

Embedding arts and humanities in the creative economy: the role of graduates in the UK

The recent change in funding structure in the UK higher education system has fuelled an animated debate about the role that arts and humanities (A&H) subjects play not only within higher education but more broadly in the society and the economy. The debate has engaged with a variety of arguments and perspectives, from the intrinsic value of A&H, to their contribution to the broader society and their economic impact, particularly in relation to the creative economy, through knowledge exchange activities. The paper argues that in the current debate very little attention has been placed on the role that A&H graduates play in the economy, through their work after graduation, and specifically in the creative economy. Using Higher Education Statistical Agency data, we analyse the performance of A&H graduates (compared with other graduates) and particularly explore how embedded they are with the creative economy and its associated industries. The results highlight a complex intersection of different subdisciplines of the A&H with the creative economy but also reveal the salary gap and unstable working conditions experienced by graduates in this field.

Impact of atmospheric transport on the evolution of microphysical and optical properties of Saharan dust

Saharan dust affects the climate by altering the radiation balance and by depositing minerals to the Atlantic Ocean. Both are dependent on particle size. We present aircraft measurements comprising 42 profiles of size distribution (0.1–300 µm), representing freshly uplifted dust, regional aged dust, and dust in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Canary Islands. The mean effective diameter of dust in SAL profiles is 4.5 µm smaller than that in freshly uplifted dust, while the vertical structure changes from a low shallow layer (0–1.5 km) to a well-mixed deep Saharan dust layer (0–5 km). Size distributions show a loss of 60 to 90% of particles larger than 30 µm 12 h after uplift. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases from 0.92 to 0.94 to 0.95 between fresh, aged, and SAL profiles: this is enough to alter heating rates by 26%. Some fresh dust close to the surface shows SSA as low as 0.85

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Those Essex girls: the lives and letters of Lettice Knollys, Penelope Rich, Dorothy Perrott Percy, and Frances Walsingham

This essay examines the lives and letters of four of the most influential women at the court of Queen Elizabeth I: Lettice Knollys her daughters Penelope Rich and Dorothy Perrott Percy and her daughter-in-law Frances Walsingham, all of whom lived scandalous but powerful lives.

Orientalism and intelligence analysis: deconstructing Anglo-American notions of the ‘Arab’

Despite revived notions of a ‘cultural divide’ between East and West, Edward's Said's ‘Orientalism’ has received little attention from scholars of intelligence and diplomacy. This article brings to light for the first time a number of recently declassified documents of a different nature to usual assessments produced by Anglo-American analytic bodies: those focussed primarily on the issue of ‘national character’. Using and critiquing Said's thesis of Western ‘Orientalism’ it reveals some critical and enduring conceptualizations articulated by the diplomatic and intelligence community about Arab culture such as the role of Islam, rhetoric, political motivation and notions of ‘honour’. Such a critical approach demonstrates how diplomatic and intelligence history can also be a history of culture, ideas and institutional mentalité.