Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.

Optimisation of oat milk formulation to obtain fermented derivatives by using probiotic Lactobacillus reuteri microorganisms

Functional advantages of probiotics combined with interesting composition of oat were considered as an alternative to dairy products. In this study, fermentation of oat milk with Lactobacillus reuteri and Streptococcus thermophilus was analysed to develop a new probiotic product. Central composite design with response surface methodology was used to analyse the effect of different factors (glucose, fructose, inulin and starters) on the probiotic population in the product. Optimised formulation was characterised throughout storage time at 4 ℃ in terms of pH, acidity, β-glucan and oligosaccharides contents, colour and rheological behaviour. All formulations studied were adequate to produce fermented foods and minimum dose of each factor was considered as optimum. The selected formulation allowed starters survival above 107/cfu ml to be considered as a functional food and was maintained during the 28 days controlled. β-glucans remained in the final product with a positive effect on viscosity. Therefore, a new probiotic non-dairy milk was successfully developed in which high probiotic survivals were assured throughout the typical yoghurt-like shelf life.

Reforming theatre in Farnese Parma: the case of the Accademia degli Innominati (1574-1608)

The essay explores the socio-cultural role of the main academy in Parma, the Innominati (1574-1608), which flourished in the years when the Farnese dynasty was beginning to assert more forcefully its political control over the new state of Parma and Piacenza. The Innominati was from the start associated with the ruling dynasty, who must have recognized the importance of its cultural activities to strengthening their regime, particularly in the absence of a strong local university. This essay explores the institution’s contested position within the cultural landscape – as reflected also in its membership of courtiers, clergymen, and feudal aristocrats with more ambivalent relations with the Farnese. In particular, the focus falls on the theatrical activities of the group during the 1580s, a decade which saw the establishment of the Parma Index (1580) and the succession of the internationally celebrated Duke Alessandro Farnese (1587). Based on the little surviving evidence it is argued that the Academy in the 1580s became a creative hub for theatrical experimentation – through theoretical debate and composition, and possibly even performance. However, as relations between the Farnese and the local elites, especially feudal aristocrats, became more contested the Academy’s theatrical production and the public memory of this became increasingly controlled.

Activation of the small GTP-binding protein Ras in the heart by hypertrophic agonists.

The small (21-kDa) guanine nucleotide-binding protein Ras plays a central role in the regulation of cell growth and division. In the cardiac myocyte, it has been implicated in the hypertrophic adaptation. We have recently examined the ability of hypertrophic agonists such as endothelin-1, phenylephrine and phorbol esters to increase the "activity" (GTP loading) of Ras. We have also studied the signaling events that lead to activation of Ras and the processes that respond to Ras activation. In this brief review, we describe these studies and set them within the context of the hypertrophic response.

Estimating future bidding performance of competitor bidders in capped tenders

Research in Bid Tender Forecasting Models (BTFM) has been in progress since the 1950s. None of the developed models were easy-to-use tools for effective use by bidding practitioners because the advanced mathematical apparatus and massive data inputs required. This scenario began to change in 2012 with the development of the Smartbid BTFM, a quite simple model that presents a series of graphs that enables any project manager to study competitors using a relatively short historical tender dataset. However, despite the advantages of this new model, so far, it is still necessary to study all the auction participants as an indivisible group; that is, the original BTFM was not devised for analyzing the behavior of a single bidding competitor or a subgroup of them. The present paper tries to solve that flaw and presents a stand-alone methodology useful for estimating future competitors’ bidding behaviors separately.