The interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the Maritime Continent in a GCM

Previous studies using the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) have shown that the islands of the Maritime Continent act as an unrealistic block to the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This blocking effect is investigated using a simplified, aqua-planet version of this GCM, with various idealized configurations of the Maritime Continent islands placed on the equator, and an MJO-like convective signal forced by a propagating sea-surface temperature anomaly dipole. Results suggest that it is the orography of the islands, rather than the presence of the islands themselves, which results in the blocking of the MJO. Although the peak elevation of the orography in the GCM is very much lower than in reality, it appears to act as effective block to the eastward propagation of the low-level Kelvin wave signal which accompanies the MJO. In particular, the representation of Sumatra in the GCM, as a north-south oriented ridge straddling the equator, seems to be particularly effective at blocking the Kelvin wave signal, which in a full GCM would result in the weakening or complete extinction of the MJO signal to the east of the Maritime Continent.

Atypical neural self-representation in autism

The 'self' is a complex multidimensional construct deeply embedded and in many ways defined by our relations with the social world. Individuals with autism are impaired in both self-referential and other-referential social cognitive processing. Atypical neural representation of the self may be a key to understanding the nature of such impairments. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we scanned adult males with an autism spectrum condition and age and IQ-matched neurotypical males while they made reflective mentalizing or physical judgements about themselves or the British Queen. Neurotypical individuals preferentially recruit the middle cingulate cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in response to self compared with other-referential processing. In autism, ventromedial prefrontal cortex responded equally to self and other, while middle cingulate cortex responded more to other-mentalizing than self-mentalizing. These atypical responses occur only in areas where self-information is preferentially processed and does not affect areas that preferentially respond to other-referential information. In autism, atypical neural self-representation was also apparent via reduced functional connectivity between ventromedial prefrontal cortex and areas associated with lower level embodied representations, such as ventral premotor and somatosensory cortex. Furthermore, the magnitude of neural self-other distinction in ventromedial prefrontal cortex was strongly related to the magnitude of early childhood social impairments in autism. Individuals whose ventromedial prefrontal cortex made the largest distinction between mentalizing about self and other were least socially impaired in early childhood, while those whose ventromedial prefrontal cortex made little to no distinction between mentalizing about self and other were the most socially impaired in early childhood. These observations reveal that the atypical organization of neural circuitry preferentially coding for self-information is a key mechanism at the heart of both self-referential and social impairments in autism.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for Xchromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.