A model for exchange rates with crawling bands: an application to the Colombian peso

This paper builds upon previous research on currency bands, and provides a model for the Colombian peso. Stochastic differential equations are combined with information related to the Colombian currency band to estimate competing models of the behaviour of the Colombian peso within the limits of the currency band. The resulting moments of the density function for the simulated returns describe adequately most of the characteristics of the sample returns data. The factor included to account for the intra-marginal intervention performed to drive the rate towards the Central Parity accounts only for 6.5% of the daily change, which supports the argument that intervention, if performed by the Central Bank, it is not directed to push the currency towards the limits. Moreover, the credibility of the Colombian Central Bank, Banco de la República’s ability to defend the band seems low.

Keeping the world at hand: rapid visuomotor processing for hand-object interactions

The existence of hand-centred visual processing has long been established in the macaque premotor cortex. These hand-centred mechanisms have been thought to play some general role in the sensory guidance of movements towards objects, or, more recently, in the sensory guidance of object avoidance movements. We suggest that these hand-centred mechanisms play a specific and prominent role in the rapid selection and control of manual actions following sudden changes in the properties of the objects relevant for hand-object interactions. We discuss recent anatomical and physiological evidence from human and non-human primates, which indicates the existence of rapid processing of visual information for hand-object interactions. This new evidence demonstrates how several stages of the hierarchical visual processing system may be bypassed, feeding the motor system with hand-related visual inputs within just 70 ms following a sudden event. This time window is early enough, and this processing rapid enough, to allow the generation and control of rapid hand-centred avoidance and acquisitive actions, for aversive and desired objects, respectively

High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming.

Sensitivity of Bolivian seasonally-dry tropical forest to precipitation and temperature changes over glacial-interglacial timescales

We used fossil pollen to investigate the response of the eastern Chiquitano seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF), lowland Bolivia, to high-amplitude climate change associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. Changes in the structure, composition and diversity of the past vegetation are compared with palaeoclimate data previously reconstructed from the same record, and these results shed light on the biogeographic history of today’s highly disjunct blocks of SDTF across South America. We demonstrate that lower glacial temperatures limited tropical forest in the Chiquitanía region, and suggest that SDTF was absent or restricted at latitudes below 17°S, the proposed location of the majority of the hypothesized ‘Pleistocene dry forest arc’ (PDFA). At 19500 yrs b.p., warming supported the establishment of a floristically-distinct SDTF, which showed little change throughout the glacial–Holocene transition, despite a shift to significantly wetter conditions beginning ca. 12500–12200 yrs b.p. Anadenanthera colubrina, a key SDTF taxon, arrived at 10000 yrs b.p., which coincides with the onset of drought associated with an extended dry season. Lasting until 3000 yrs b.p., Holocene drought caused a floristic shift to more drought-tolerant taxa and a reduction in α-diversity (shown by declining palynological richness), but closed-canopy forest was maintained throughout. In contrast to the PDFA, the modern distribution of SDTF most likely represents the greatest spatial coverage of these forests in southern South America since glacial times. We find that temperature is a key climatic control upon the distribution of lowland South American SDTF over glacial-interglacial timescales, and seasonality of rainfall exerts a strong control on their floristic composition.

A model of the dynamic relationship between blood flow and volume changes during brain activation

The temporal relationship between changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral blood volume (CBV) is important in the biophysical modeling and interpretation of the hemodynamic response to activation, particularly in the context of magnetic resonance imaging and the blood oxygen level-dependent signal. Grubb et al. (1974) measured the steady state relationship between changes in CBV and CBF after hypercapnic challenge. The relationship CBV proportional to CBFPhi has been used extensively in the literature. Two similar models, the Balloon (Buxton et al., 1998) and the Windkessel (Mandeville et al., 1999), have been proposed to describe the temporal dynamics of changes in CBV with respect to changes in CBF. In this study, a dynamic model extending the Windkessel model by incorporating delayed compliance is presented. The extended model is better able to capture the dynamics of CBV changes after changes in CBF, particularly in the return-to-baseline stages of the response.

Simulated climate and biomes of Africa during the Late Quaternary: comparison with pollen and lake status data

New compilations of African pollen and lake data are compared with climate (CCM1, NCAR, Boulder) and vegetation (BIOME 1.2, GSG, Lund) simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and early to mid-Holocene (EMH). The simulated LGM climate was ca 4°C colder and drier than present, with maximum reduction in precipitation in semi-arid regions. Biome simulations show lowering of montane vegetation belts and expansion of southern xerophytic associations, but no change in the distribution of deserts and tropical rain forests. The lakes show LGM conditions similar or drier than present throughout northern and tropical Africa. Pollen data indicate lowering of montane vegetation belts, the stability of the Sahara, and a reduction of rain forest. The paleoenvironmental data are consistent with the simulated changes in temperature and moisture budgets, although they suggest the climate model underestimates equatorial aridity. EMH simulations show temperatures slightly less than present and increased monsoonal precipitation in the eastern Sahara and East Africa. Biome simulations show an upward shift of montane vegetation belts, fragmentation of xerophytic vegetation in southern Africa, and a major northward shift of the southern margin of the eastern Sahara. The lakes indicate conditions wetter than present across northern Africa. Pollen data show an upward shift of the montane forests, the northward shift of the southern margin of the Sahara, and a major extension of tropical rain forest. The lake and pollen data confirm monsoon expansion in eastern Africa, but the climate model fails to simulate the wet conditions in western Africa.

Simulating the Holocene lake-level record of Lake Bysjon, southern Sweden

Lake Bysjön, southern Sweden, has experienced major lake-level lowerings during the Holocene, with one interval about 900014C yr B.P. when water level dropped ca. 7 m and the lake became closed. These changes were not solely due to known changes in radiation budgets or seasonal temperatures. Simulations with a lake-catchment model indicate that, given the actual changes in radiation and temperatures, all the observed lake-level lowerings (including the major lowering at 900014C yr B.P.) could have occurred in response to precipitation changes of <75 mm/yr when winter temperatures were warmer than today. In these circumstances, the reduction of runoff into the lake caused by increased evapotranspiration during the late winter and spring, combined with relatively small changes in precipitation, was sufficient for the lake to become closed. When winter temperatures were colder than today, the reduction in winter runoff related to reduced precipitation was only very slight and insufficient to lower the lake below threshold. In such circumstances, changes in outflow were sufficient to compensate for the combined changes in precipitation and runoff, and lake level therefore remained unchanged.

The dynamic effects of age-related stereotype threat on explicit and implicit memory performance in older adults

While an awareness of age-related changes in memory may help older adults gain insight into their own cognitive abilities, it may also have a negative impact on memory performance through a mechanism of stereotype threat (ST). The consequence of ST is under-performance in abilities related to the stereotype. Here, we examined the degree to which explicit and implicit memory were affected by ST across a wide age-range. We found that explicit memory was affected by ST, but only in an Early-Aging group (mean age 67.83), and not in a Later-Aging group (mean age 84.59). Implicit memory was not affected in either the Early or Later Aging group. These results demonstrate that ST for age-related memory decline affects memory processes requiring controlled retrieval while sparing item encoding. Furthermore, this form of ST appears to dissipate as aging progresses. These results have implications for understanding psychological development across the span of aging.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Estimating age of mature adults from the degeneration of the sternal end of the clavicle

The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age-related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann-Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled-sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional "mature adult" age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Movement intention detection from autocorrelation of EEG for BCI

Movement intention detection is important for development of intuitive movement based Brain Computer Interfaces (BCI). Various complex oscillatory processes are involved in producing voluntary movement intention. In this paper, temporal dynamics of electroencephalography (EEG) associated with movement intention and execution were studied using autocorrelation. It was observed that the trend of decay of autocorrelation of EEG changes before and during the voluntary movement. A novel feature for movement intention detection was developed based on relaxation time of autocorrelation obtained by fitting exponential decay curve to the autocorrelation. This new single trial feature was used to classify voluntary finger tapping trials from resting state trials with peak accuracy of 76.7%. The performance of autocorrelation analysis was compared with Motor-Related Cortical Potentials (MRCP).

Distinct clinical and neuropathological features of G51D SNCA mutation cases compared with SNCA duplication and H50Q mutation

Background: We and others have described the neurodegenerative disorder caused by G51D SNCA mutation which shares characteristics of Parkinson’s disease (PD) and multiple system atrophy (MSA). The objective of this investigation was to extend the description of the clinical and neuropathological hallmarks of G51D mutant SNCA-associated disease by the study of two additional cases from a further G51D SNCA kindred and to compare the features of this group with a SNCA duplication case and a H50Q SNCA mutation case. Results: All three G51D patients were clinically characterised by parkinsonism, dementia, visual hallucinations, autonomic dysfunction and pyramidal signs with variable age at disease onset and levodopa response. The H50Q SNCA mutation case had a clinical picture that mimicked late-onset idiopathic PD with a good and sustained levodopa response. The SNCA duplication case presented with a clinical phenotype of frontotemporal dementia with marked behavioural changes, pyramidal signs, postural hypotension and transiently levodopa responsive parkinsonism. Detailed post-mortem neuropathological analysis was performed in all cases. All three G51D cases had abundant α-synuclein pathology with characteristics of both PD and MSA. These included widespread cortical and subcortical neuronal α-synuclein inclusions together with small numbers of inclusions resembling glial cytoplasmic inclusions (GCIs) in oligodendrocytes. In contrast the H50Q and SNCA duplication cases, had α-synuclein pathology resembling idiopathic PD without GCIs. Phosphorylated α-synuclein was present in all inclusions types in G51D cases but was more restricted in SNCA duplication and H50Q mutation. Inclusions were also immunoreactive for the 5G4 antibody indicating their highly aggregated and likely fibrillar state. Conclusions: Our characterisation of the clinical and neuropathological features of the present small series of G51D SNCA mutation cases should aid the recognition of this clinico-pathological entity. The neuropathological features of these cases consistently share characteristics of PD and MSA and are distinct from PD patients carrying the H50Q or SNCA duplication.

Children’s eye movements during reading

Children’s eye movements during reading. In this chapter, we evaluate the literature on children’s eye movements during reading to date. We describe the basic, developmental changes that occur in eye movement behaviour during reading, discuss age-related changes in the extent and time course of information extraction during fixations in reading, and compare the effects of visual and linguistic manipulations in the text on children’s eye movement behaviour in relation to skilled adult readers. We argue that future research will benefit from examining how eye movement behaviour during reading develops in relation to language and literacy skills, and use of computational modelling with children’s eye movement data may improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the progression from beginning to skilled reader.