Boundary layer dynamics over London, UK, as observed using Doppler lidar during REPARTEE-II

Urban boundary layers (UBLs) can be highly complex due to the heterogeneous roughness and heating of the surface, particularly at night. Due to a general lack of observations, it is not clear whether canonical models of boundary layer mixing are appropriate in modelling air quality in urban areas. This paper reports Doppler lidar observations of turbulence profiles in the centre of London, UK, as part of the second REPARTEE campaign in autumn 2007. Lidar-measured standard deviation of vertical velocity averaged over 30 min intervals generally compared well with in situ sonic anemometer measurements at 190 m on the BT telecommunications Tower. During calm, nocturnal periods, the lidar underestimated turbulent mixing due mainly to limited sampling rate. Mixing height derived from the turbulence, and aerosol layer height from the backscatter profiles, showed similar diurnal cycles ranging from c. 300 to 800 m, increasing to c. 200 to 850 m under clear skies. The aerosol layer height was sometimes significantly different to the mixing height, particularly at night under clear skies. For convective and neutral cases, the scaled turbulence profiles resembled canonical results; this was less clear for the stable case. Lidar observations clearly showed enhanced mixing beneath stratocumulus clouds reaching down on occasion to approximately half daytime boundary layer depth. On one occasion the nocturnal turbulent structure was consistent with a nocturnal jet, suggesting a stable layer. Given the general agreement between observations and canonical turbulence profiles, mixing timescales were calculated for passive scalars released at street level to reach the BT Tower using existing models of turbulent mixing. It was estimated to take c. 10 min to diffuse up to 190 m, rising to between 20 and 50 min at night, depending on stability. Determination of mixing timescales is important when comparing to physico-chemical processes acting on pollutant species measured simultaneously at both the ground and at the BT Tower during the campaign. From the 3 week autumnal data-set there is evidence for occasional stable layers in central London, effectively decoupling surface emissions from air aloft.

Cereal-based wholecrop silages: a potential conservation measure for farmland birds in pastoral landscapes

Declines of farmland birds have been pronounced in landscapes dominated by lowland livestock production and densities of seed-eating birds are particularly low in such areas. Modern livestock production often entails a simple cropping system dominated by ley grassland and maize grown for animal feed. These crops often lack invertebrate and seed resources for foraging birds and can be hostile nesting environments. Cereal-based wholecrop silages (CBWCS) offer potential benefits for farmland birds because they can be grown with minimal herbicide applications and can be spring-sown with following winter stubbles. We compared the biodiversity benefits and agronomic yields of winter-sown wheat and spring-sown barley as alternatives to grass and maize silage in intensive dairy livestock systems. Seed-eating birds foraged mainly in CBWCS fields during summer, and mainly on barley stubbles during winter and this reflected the higher densities of seed-bearing plants therein. Maize and grass fields lacked seed-bearing vegetation and were strongly avoided by most seed-eating birds. Production costs of CBWCS are similar to those of maize and lower than those of grass silage. Selective (rather than broad-spectrum) herbicide application on spring barley crops increased forb cover, reduced yields (by 11%) but caused only a small (<4%) increase in production costs. CBWCS grown with selective herbicide and with following winter stubbles offer a practical conservation measure for seed-eating farmland birds in landscapes dominated by intensively-managed grassland and maize. However, the relatively early harvesting of CBWCS could destroy a significant proportion of breeding attempts of late-nesting species like corn bunting (Emberiza calandra) or yellow wagtail (Motocilla flava). Where late-breeding species are likely to nest in CBWCS fields, harvesting should be delayed until most nesting attempts have been completed (e.g. until after 1st August in southern Britain). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-fuelling of peat with meat and bone meal in a pilot scale bubbling bed reactor

Co-combustion performance trials of Meat and Bone Meal (MBM) and peat were conducted using a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) reactor. In the combustion performance trials the effects of the co-combustion of MBM and peat on flue gas emissions, bed fluidization, ash agglomeration tendency in the bed and the composition and quality of the ash were studied. MBM was mixed with peat at 6 levels between 15% and 100%. Emissions were predominantly below regulatory limits. CO concentrations in the flue gas only exceeded the 100 mg/m3 limit upon combustion of pure MBM. SO2 emissions were found to be over the limit of 50 mg/m3, while in all trials NOx emissions were below the limit of 300 mg/m3. The HCl content of the flue gases was found to vary near the limit of 30 mg/m3. VOCs however were within their limits. The problem of bed agglomeration was avoided when the bed temperature was about 850 °C and only 20% MBM was co-combusted. This study indicates that a pilot scale BFB reactor can, under optimum conditions, be operated within emission limits when MBM is used as a co-fuel with peat. This can provide a basis for further scale-up development work in industrial scale BFB applications

Asynchronous flowering and within-plant flowering diversity in wheat and the implications for crop resilience to heat

Self-pollination dominates in wheat , with a small level of out-crossing due to flowering asynchrony and male sterility. However, the timing and synchrony of male and female flowering in wheat is a crucial determinant of seed set and may be an important factor affecting gene flow and resilience to climate change. Here, a methodology is presented for assessing the timing and synchrony of flowering in wheat. From the onset of flowering until the end of anthesis, the anther and stigma activity of each floret was assessed on the first five developing ears in potted plants grown under ambient conditions and originating from cv Paragon or cvs Spark-Rialto backgrounds. At harvest maturity, seed presence, size and weight was recorded for each floret scored. The synchrony between pollen dehiscence and stigma collapse within a flower was dependent on its relative position in a spike and within a floret. Determined on the basis of synchrony within each flower, the level of pollination by pollen originating from other flowers reached approximately 30% and did not change throughout the duration of flowering. A modelling exercise parameterised by flowering observations indicated that the temporal and spatial variability of anther activity within and between spikes may influence the relative resilience of wheat to sudden, extreme climatic events which has direct relevance to predicted future climate scenarios in the UK.

Oligosaccharides of pitaya (dragon fruit) flesh and their prebiotic properties

The major carbohydrates of white and red-flesh pitayas (dragon fruit) were glucose, fructose and some oligosaccharides (total concentrations of 86.2 and 89.6 g/kg, respectively). The molecular weight distribution of the extract was affected by the extraction solvent. The maximum oligosaccharides content (27.40%), which included fractions with molecular weights of 273–275, 448–500 and 787–911 Da, were obtained using 80% ethanol extraction at room temperature (28 ± 2 °C). The low molecular weight fraction, including glucose and fructose, was successfully removed by yeast cultivation. The molecular weights of mixed oligosaccharides (716, 700, 490 and 474 Da) were confirmed by mass spectrometry. The mixed oligosaccharides showed that they were resistant to hydrolysis by artificial human gastric juice and human α-amylase, giving maximum hydrolysis of 4.04% and 34.88%, respectively. The mixed oligosaccharides were also found capable of stimulating the growth of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

The circulation response to idealized changes in stratospheric water vapor

Observations show that stratospheric water vapor (SWV) concentrations increased by ~30% between 1980 and 2000. SWV has also been projected to increase by up to a factor of two over the 21st century. Trends in SWV impact on stratospheric temperatures, which may lead to changes in the stratospheric circulation. Perturbations in temperature and wind in the stratosphere have been shown to influence the extratropical tropospheric circulation. This study investigates the response to a uniform doubling in SWV from 3 to 6 ppmv in a comprehensive stratosphere-resolving atmospheric-GCM. The increase in SWV causes stratospheric cooling with a maximum amplitude of 5-6 K in the polar lower stratosphere and 2-3 K in the tropical lower stratosphere. The zonal wind on the upper flanks of the subtropical jets is more westerly by up to ~5 m s−1. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere result in an increase in the strength of tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation of ~10% throughout the year. In the troposphere, the increase in SWV causes significant meridional dipole changes in the midlatitude zonal-mean zonal wind of up to 2.8 m s−1 at 850 hPa, which are largest in boreal winter in both hemispheres. This suggests a more poleward storm track under uniformly increased stratospheric water vapor. The circulation changes in both the stratosphere and troposphere are almost entirely due to the increase in SWV at pressures greater than 50 hPa. The results show that long-term trends in SWV may impact on stratospheric temperatures and wind, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and extratropical surface climate.

An extreme case of plant-insect co-diversification: figs and fig-pollinating wasps

It is thought that speciation in phytophagous insects is often due to colonization of novel host plants, because radiations of plant and insect lineages are typically asynchronous. Recent phylogenetic comparisons have supported this model of diversification for both insect herbivores and specialized pollinators. An exceptional case where contemporaneous plant insect diversification might be expected is the obligate mutualism between fig trees (Ficus species, Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Hymenoptera). The ubiquity and ecological significance of this mutualism in tropical and subtropical ecosystems has long intrigued biologists, but the systematic challenge posed by >750 interacting species pairs has hindered progress toward understanding its evolutionary history. In particular, taxon sampling and analytical tools have been insufficient for large-scale co-phylogenetic analyses. Here, we sampled nearly 200 interacting pairs of fig and wasp species from across the globe. Two supermatrices were assembled: on average, wasps had sequences from 77% of six genes (5.6kb), figs had sequences from 60% of five genes (5.5 kb), and overall 850 new DNA sequences were generated for this study. We also developed a new analytical tool, Jane 2, for event-based phylogenetic reconciliation analysis of very large data sets. Separate Bayesian phylogenetic analyses for figs and fig wasps under relaxed molecular clock assumptions indicate Cretaceous diversification of crown groups and contemporaneous divergence for nearly half of all fig and pollinator lineages. Event-based co-phylogenetic analyses further support the co-diversification hypothesis. Biogeographic analyses indicate that the presentday distribution of fig and pollinator lineages is consistent with an Eurasian origin and subsequent dispersal, rather than with Gondwanan vicariance. Overall, our findings indicate that the fig-pollinator mutualism represents an extreme case among plant-insect interactions of coordinated dispersal and long-term co-diversification.

The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

Transfers, contracts and regulation: a new institutional economics perspective on the changing provision of social housing in Britain

Social housing policy in the UK mirrors wider processes Associated with shifts in broad welfare regimes. Social housing has moved from dominance by state housing provision to the funding of new investment through voluntary sector housing associations to what is now a greater focus on the regulation and private financing of these not-for-profit bodies. If these trends run their course, we are likely to see a range of not-for-profit bodies providing non-market housing in a highly regulated quasi-market. This paper examines these issues through the lens of new institutional economics, which it is believed can provide important insights into the fundamental contractual and regulatory relationships that are coming to dominate social housing from the perspective of the key actors in the sector (not-for-profit housing organisations, their tenants, private lenders and the regulatory state). The paper draws on evidence recently collected from a study evaluating more than 100 stock transfer organisations that inherited ex-public housing in Scotland, including 12 detailed case studies. The paper concludes that social housing stakeholders need to be aware of the risks (and their management) faced across the sector and that the state needs to have clear objectives for social housing and coherent policy instruments to achieve those ends.

Prediction of a typhoon using a fine-mesh NWP model

The ECMWF operational grid point model (with a resolution of 1.875° of latitude and longitude) and its limited area version (with a resolution of !0.47° of latitude and longitude) with boundary values from the global model have been used to study the simulation of the typhoon Tip. The fine-mesh model was capable of simulating the main structural features of the typhoon and predicting a fall in central pressure of 60 mb in 3 days. The structure of the forecast typhoon, with a warm core (maximum potential temperature anomaly 17 K). intense swirling wind (maximum 55 m s-1 at 850 mb) and spiralling precipitation patterns is characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Comparison with the lower resolution forecast shows that the horizontal resolution is a determining factor in predicting not only the structure and intensity but even the movement of these vortices. However, an accurate and refined initial analysis is considered to be a prerequisite for a correct forecast of this phenomenon.

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones

The ability of the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in winter [December–February (DJF)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] is investigated in detail. Cyclones are identified as maxima in T42 vorticity at 850 hPa and their propagation is tracked using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. By comparing the historical CMIP5 simulations (1976–2005) and the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1979–2008), the authors find that systematic biases affect the number and intensity of North Atlantic cyclones in CMIP5 models. In DJF, the North Atlantic storm track tends to be either too zonal or displaced southward, thus leading to too few and weak cyclones over the Norwegian Sea and too many cyclones in central Europe. In JJA, the position of the North Atlantic storm track is generally well captured but some CMIP5 models underestimate the total number of cyclones. The dynamical intensity of cyclones, as measured by either T42 vorticity at 850 hPa or mean sea level pressure, is too weak in both DJF and JJA. The intensity bias has a hemispheric character, and it cannot be simply attributed to the representation of the North Atlantic large- scale atmospheric state. Despite these biases, the representation of Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks has improved since CMIP3 and some CMIP5 models are able of representing well both the number and the intensity of North Atlantic cyclones. In particular, some of the higher-atmospheric-resolution models tend to have a better representation of the tilt of the North Atlantic storm track and of the intensity of cyclones in DJF.