Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

The relationship between parent and child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep and child sleep

Cognitive theories emphasise the role of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep in the development and maintenance of sleep-related problems (SRPs). The present research examines how parents' dysfunctional beliefs about children's sleep and child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep are related to each other and to children's subjective and objective sleep. Participants were 45 children aged 11 -12 years and their parents. Self-report measures of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep and child sleep were completed by children, mothers and fathers. Objective measures of child sleep were taken using actigraphy. The results showed that child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep were correlated with father (r=.43, p<.05) and mother (r=.43, p<.05) reported child SRPs, and with Sleep Onset Latency (r=.34, p<.05). Maternal dysfunctional beliefs about child sleep were related to child SRPs as reported by mothers (r=.44, p<.05), and to child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep (r=.37, p<.05). Some initial evidence was found for a mediation pathway in which child dyfunctional beliefs mediate the relationship between parent dysfunctional beliefs and child sleep. The results support the cognitive model of SRPs and contribute to the literature by providing the first evidence of familial aggregation of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep.

A generalised background correction algorithm for a Halo Doppler lidar and its application to data from Finland

Current commercially available Doppler lidars provide an economical and robust solution for measuring vertical and horizontal wind velocities, together with the ability to provide co- and cross-polarised backscatter profiles. The high temporal resolution of these instruments allows turbulent properties to be obtained from studying the variation in radial velocities. However, the instrument specifications mean that certain characteristics, especially the background noise behaviour, become a limiting factor for the instrument sensitivity in regions where the aerosol load is low. Turbulent calculations require an accurate estimate of the contribution from velocity uncertainty estimates, which are directly related to the signal-to-noise ratio. Any bias in the signal-to-noise ratio will propagate through as a bias in turbulent properties. In this paper we present a method to correct for artefacts in the background noise behaviour of commercially available Doppler lidars and reduce the signal-to-noise ratio threshold used to discriminate between noise, and cloud or aerosol signals. We show that, for Doppler lidars operating continuously at a number of locations in Finland, the data availability can be increased by as much as 50 % after performing this background correction and subsequent reduction in the threshold. The reduction in bias also greatly improves subsequent calculations of turbulent properties in weak signal regimes.