Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Molecular requirements for L-type Ca2+ channel blockade by testosterone

Despite being generally perceived as detrimental to the cardiovascular system, testosterone has marked beneficial vascular effects; most notably it acutely and directly causes vasodilatation. Indeed, men with hypotestosteronaemia can present with myocardial ischemia and angina which can be rapidly alleviated by infusion of testosterone. To date, however, in vitro studies have failed to provide a convincing mechanism to account for this clinically important effect. Here, using whole-cell patch-clamp recordings to measure current flow through recombinant human L-type Ca2+ channel alpha(1C) subunits (Ca(v)1.2), we demonstrate that testosterone inhibits such currents in a concentration-dependent manner. Importantly, this occurs over the physiological range of testosterone concentrations (IC50 34 nM), and is not mimicked by the metabolite 5alpha-androstan-17beta-ol-3-one (DHT), nor by progesterone or estradiol, even at high (10 microM) concentration. L-type Ca2+ channels in the vasculature are also important clinical targets for vasodilatory dihydropyridines. A single point mutation (T1007Y) almost completely abolishes nifedipine sensitivity in our recombinant expression system. Crucially, the same mutation renders the channels insensitive to testosterone. Our data strongly suggest, for the first time, the molecular requirements for testosterone binding to L-type Ca2+ channels, thereby supporting its beneficial role as an endogenous Ca2+ channel antagonist in the treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Mononuclear palladium and heterodinuclear palladium–ruthenium complexes of semicarbazone ligands: synthesis, characterization, and application in C–C cross-coupling reactions

Reaction of salicylaldehyde semicarbazone (L-1), 2-hydroxyacetophenone semicarbazone (L-2), and 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde semicarbazone (L-3) with [Pd(PPh3)(2)Cl-2] in ethanol in the presence of a base (NEt3) affords a family of yellow complexes (1a, 1b and 1c, respectively). In these complexes the semicarbazone ligands are coordinated to palladium in a rather unusual tridentate ONN-mode, and a PPh3 also remains coordinated to the metal center. Crystal structures of the 1b and 1c complexes have been determined, and structure of 1a has been optimized by a DFT method. In these complexes two potential donor sites of the coordinated semicarbazone, viz. the hydrazinic nitrogen and carbonylic oxygen, remain unutilized. Further reaction of these palladium complexes (1a, 1b and 1c) with [Ru(PPh3)(2)(CO)(2)Cl-2] yields a family of orange complexes (2a, 2b and 2c, respectively). In these heterodinuclear (Pd-Ru) complexes, the hydrazinic nitrogen (via dissociation of the N-H proton) and the carbonylic oxygen from the palladium-containing fragment bind to the ruthenium center by displacing a chloride and a carbonyl. Crystal structures of 2a and 2c have been determined, and the structure of 2b has been optimized by a DFT method. All the complexes show characteristic H-1 NMR spectra and, intense absorptions in the visible and ultraviolet region. Cyclic voltammetry on all the complexes shows an irreversible oxidation of the coordinated semicarbazone within 0.86-0.93 V vs. SCE, and an irreversible reduction of the same ligand within -0.96 to -1.14 V vs. SCE. Both the mononuclear (1a, 1b and 1c) and heterodinuclear (2a, 2b and 2c) complexes are found to efficiently catalyze Suzuki, Heck and Sonogashira type C-C coupling reactions utilizing a variety of aryl bromides and aryl chlorides. The Pd-Ru complexes (2a, 2b and 2c) are found to be better catalysts than the Pd complexes (1a, 1b and 1c) for Suzuki and Heck coupling reactions.

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Quantifying the relationship between temperature regulation in the ear and floret development stage in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under heat and drought stress

Thermal imaging is a valuable tool for the elucidation of gas exchange dynamics between a plant and its environment. The presence of stomata in wheat glumes and awns offers an opportunity to assess photosynthetic activity of ears up to and during flowering. The knowledge of spatial and temporal thermodynamics of the wheat ear may provide insight into interactions between floret developmental stage (FDS), temperature depression (TD) and ambient environment, with potential to be used as a high-throughput screening tool for breeders. A controlled environment study was conducted using six spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes of the elite recombinant inbred line Seri/Babax. Average ear temperature (AET) was recorded using a hand held infrared camera and gas exchange was measured by enclosing ears in a custom built cuvette. FDS was monitored and recorded daily throughout the study. Plants were grown in pots and exposed to a combination of two temperature and two water regimes. In the examined wheat lines, TD varied from 0.1°C to 0.6°C according to the level of stress imposed. The results indicated that TD does not occur at FDS F3, the peak of active flowering, but during the preceding stages prior to pollen release and stigma maturity (F1-F2). These findings suggest that ear temperature during the early stages of anthesis, prior to pollen release and full extension of the stigma, are likely to be the most relevant for identifying heat stress tolerant genotypes.

Ocean heat transport and water vapor greenhouse in a warm equable climate: a new look at the low gradient paradox

The authors study the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in the maintenance of a warm, equable, ice-free climate. An ensemble of idealized aquaplanet GCM calculations is used to assess the equilibrium sensitivity of global mean surface temperature and its equator-to-pole gradient (ΔT) to variations in OHT, prescribed through a simple analytical formula representing export out of the tropics and poleward convergence. Low-latitude OHT warms the mid- to high latitudes without cooling the tropics; increases by 1°C and ΔT decreases by 2.6°C for every 0.5-PW increase in OHT across 30° latitude. This warming is relatively insensitive to the detailed meridional structure of OHT. It occurs in spite of near-perfect atmospheric compensation of large imposed variations in OHT: the total poleward heat transport is nearly fixed. The warming results from a convective adjustment of the extratropical troposphere. Increased OHT drives a shift from large-scale to convective precipitation in the midlatitude storm tracks. Warming arises primarily from enhanced greenhouse trapping associated with convective moistening of the upper troposphere. Warming extends to the poles by atmospheric processes even in the absence of high-latitude OHT. A new conceptual model for equable climates is proposed, in which OHT plays a key role by driving enhanced deep convection in the midlatitude storm tracks. In this view, the climatic impact of OHT depends on its effects on the greenhouse properties of the atmosphere, rather than its ability to increase the total poleward energy transport.

Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering

The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change [1] has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming [2] (“geoengineering”), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries [3]. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget 4 and 5 because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation [6]. Specifically, we propose a “bio-geoengineering” approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1°C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO2[7]. Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s

During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 1°C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America.

Observed relationships between maize yield and climate in Sri Lanka

The present study evaluated the effects of climate variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in Sri Lanka at different spatial scales. Biophysical data from the Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka for six major maize-growing districts (Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Hambantota, Moneragala, and Kurunegala) from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed. Simple linear regression models were fitted to observed climate data and detrended maize yield to identify significant correlations. The correlation between first differences of maize yield and climate (r) was further investigated at 0.50° grid scale using interpolated climate data. After 2003, significantly positive (p < 0.01) yield trends varied from 154 kg ha–1 yr–1 to 360 kg ha–1 yr–1. The correlations between maize yield and climate reported that five out of six districts were significant at 10% level. Rainfall had a consistent significant (p < 0.10) positive impact on maize yield in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Moneragala, where seasonal total rainfall together with high temperature (“hot-dry”) are the key limitations. Further, the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on maize yield in Moneragala (“hot-dry”), the only district that showed high temperatures. Badulla district (“cold-dry”) reported a significant (r = 0.38) positive correlation with mean seasonal temperature, indicating higher potential toward increasing temperatures. Each 1°C rise in seasonal mean temperature reduced maize yield by about 5% from 1990 to 2010. Overall, there was a reasonable correlation between district maize yield and seasonal climate in most of the districts within the maize belt of Sri Lanka.

Simulation of long-term thermal characteristics of three Estonian lakes

A one-dimensional surface energy-balance lake model, coupled to a thermodynamic model of lake ice, is used to simulate variations in the temperature of and evaporation from three Estonian lakes: Karujärv, Viljandi and Kirjaku. The model is driven by daily climate data, derived by cubic-spline interpolation from monthly mean data, and was run for periods of 8 years (Kirjaku) up to 30 years (Viljandi). Simulated surface water temperature is in good agreement with observations: mean differences between simulated and observed temperatures are from −0.8°C to +0.1°C. The simulated duration of snow and ice cover is comparable with observed. However, the model generally underpredicts ice thickness and overpredicts snow depth. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the model results are robust across a wide range (0.1–2.0 m−1) of lake extinction coefficient: surface temperature differs by less than 0.5°C between extreme values of the extinction coefficient. The model results are more sensitive to snow and ice albedos. However, changing the snow (0.2–0.9) and ice (0.15–0.55) albedos within realistic ranges does not improve the simulations of snow depth and ice thickness. The underestimation of ice thickness is correlated with the overestimation of snow cover, since a thick snow layer insulates the ice and limits ice formation. The overestimation of snow cover results from the assumption that all the simulated winter precipitation occurs as snow, a direct consequence of using daily climate data derived by interpolation from mean monthly data.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Regulation of Bcl-xL expression by H2O2 in cardiac myocytes.

Oxidative stress promotes cardiac myocyte apoptosis through the mitochondrial death pathway. Since Bcl-2 family proteins are key regulators of apoptosis, we examined the effects of H2O2 on the expression of principal Bcl-2 family proteins (Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, Bax, Bad) in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes. Protein expression was assessed by immunoblotting. Bcl-2, Bax, and Bad were all down-regulated in myocytes exposed to 0.2 mm H2O2, a concentration that induces apoptosis. In contrast, although Bcl-xL levels initially declined, the protein was re-expressed from 4-6 h. Bcl-xL mRNA was up-regulated from 2 to 4 h in neonatal rat or mouse cardiac myocytes exposed to H2O2, consistent with the re-expression of protein. Four different untranslated first exons have been identified for the Bcl-x gene (exons 1, 1B, 1C, and 1D, where exon 1 is the most proximal and exon 1D the most distal to the coding region). All were detected in mouse or rat neonatal cardiac myocytes, but exon 1D was not expressed in adult mouse hearts. In neonatal mouse or rat cardiac myocytes, H2O2 induced the expression of exons 1B, 1C, and 1D, but not exon 1. These data demonstrate that the Bcl-x gene is selectively responsive to oxidative stress, and the response is mediated through distal promoter regions.

Asymmetric oxidation of vinyl- and ethynyl terthiophene ligands in triruthenium complexes

A series of ruthenium(II) complexes [{RuCl(CO)(PMe3)3(–CHvCH–)}nX], 1a–1c (1a: n = 3, X = 3,3’’- dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’-terthiophene; 1b: n = 2, X = 2,2’-bithiophene; 1c: n = 2, X = 2,3-bis(3-methylthiophen- 2-yl)benzothiophene) and [{Cp*(dppe)2Ru(–CuC–)}3X], 1d (X = 3,3’’-dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’- terthiophene), were prepared and characterized by 1H, 13C and 31P NMR. Their redox, spectroscopic and bonding properties were studied with a range of spectro-electrochemical methods in combination with density functional theory calculations. The first two anodic steps observed for 1a and 1d are largely localized on the lateral frameworks of the molecular triangle, the direct conjugation between them being precluded due to the photostable open form of the dithienyl ethene moiety. The third anodic step is then mainly localized on the centerpiece of the triangular structure, affecting both bithiophene laterals. The experimental IR and UV-vis-NIR spectroelectrochemical data and, largely, also DFT calculations account for this explanation, being further supported by direct comparison with the anodic behavior of reference diruthenium complexes 1b and 1c.