Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling impacts of pollution in river systems: a new dispersion model and a case study of mine discharges in the Abrud, Aries and Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

A new model of dispersion has been developed to simulate the impact of pollutant discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the main dispersion processes operating in rivers as well as the dilution from incoming tributaries and first-order kinetic decay processes. The model is dynamic and simulates the hourly behaviour of river flow and pollutants along river systems. The model has been applied to the Aries and Mures River System in Romania and has been used to assess the impacts of potential dam releases from the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania. The question of mine water release is investigated under a range of scenarios. The impacts on pollution levels downstream at key sites and at the border with Hungary are investigated.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Orde Wingate in the Phony War and After, 1939-1940

An account of Wingate's time in the UK, from his return to Palestine to his departure for Ethiopia.

Intensities in the v7, v8 and v9 bands of CH2NH, and the harmonic force field of methyleneimine

A high resolution Fourier transform infrared spectrum of methyleneimine, HN=CH2, has been obtained in the gas phase in the region 700 to 1300 cm−1. The rovibrational line intensities of the three lowest fundamentals ν7 (A′), ν8 (A″), and ν9 (A″) have been simulated including all Coriolis interactions between the three bands, and by fitting the observed spectrum the relative signs and magnitudes of the vibrational transition moments have been determined. All of the available spectroscopic data have been used to determine the harmonic force field of methyleneimine.

Detection of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA fragments in the blood, tissues, and digesta of broilers

The aim was to determine the fate of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA fragments in the blood, tissues, and digesta of broilers. Male broiler chicks (n = 24) were allocated at 1 day old to each of four treatment diets designated T1-T4. T1 and T2 contained the near isogenic nongenetically modified (GM) maize grain, whereas T3 and T4 contained GM maize grain [cry1a(b) gene]; T1 and T3 also contained the near isogenic non-GM soybean meal, whereas T2 and T4 contained GM soybean meal (cp4epsps gene). Four days prior to slaughter at 39-42 days old, 50% of the broilers on T2-T4 had the source(s) of GM ingredients replaced by their non-GM counterparts. Detection of specific DNA sequences in feed, tissue, and digesta samples was completed by polymerase chain reaction analysis. Seven primer pairs were used to amplify fragments (similar to 200 bp) from single copy genes (maize high mobility protein, soya lectin, and transgenes in the GM feeds) and multicopy genes (poultry mitochondrial cytochrome b, maize, and soya rubisco). There was no effect of treatment on the measured growth performance parameters. Except for a single detection of lectin (nontransgenic single copy gene; unsubstantiated) in the extracted DNA from one bursa tissue sample, there was no positive detection of any endogenous or transgenic single copy genes in either blood or tissue DNA samples. However, the multicopy rubisco gene was detected in a proportion of samples from all tissue types (23% of total across all tissues studied) and in low numbers in blood. Feed-derived DNA was found to survive complete degradation up to the large intestine. Transgenic DNA was detected in gizzard digesta but not in intestinal digesta 96 h after the last feeding of treatment diets containing a source of GM maize and/or soybean meal.