Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite

We present a new composite of geomagnetic activity which is designed to be as homogeneous in its construction as possible. This is done by only combining data that, by virtue of the locations of the source observatories used, have similar responses to solar wind and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) variations. This will enable us (in Part 2, Lockwood et al., 2013a) to use the new index to reconstruct the interplanetary magnetic field, B, back to 1846 with a full analysis of errors. Allowance is made for the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field. The composite uses interdiurnal variation data from Helsinki for 1845–1890 (inclusive) and 1893–1896 and from Eskdalemuir from 1911 to the present. The gaps are filled using data from the Potsdam (1891–1892 and 1897–1907) and the nearby Seddin observatories (1908–1910) and intercalibration achieved using the Potsdam–Seddin sequence. The new index is termed IDV(1d) because it employs many of the principles of the IDV index derived by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010), inspired by the u index of Bartels (1932); however, we revert to using one-day (1d) means, as employed by Bartels, because the use of near-midnight values in IDV introduces contamination by the substorm current wedge auroral electrojet, giving noise and a dependence on solar wind speed that varies with latitude. The composite is compared with independent, early data from European-sector stations, Greenwich, St Petersburg, Parc St Maur, and Ekaterinburg, as well as the composite u index, compiled from 2–6 stations by Bartels, and the IDV index of Svalgaard and Cliver. Agreement is found to be extremely good in all cases, except two. Firstly, the Greenwich data are shown to have gradually degraded in quality until new instrumentation was installed in 1915. Secondly, we infer that the Bartels u index is increasingly unreliable before about 1886 and overestimates the solar cycle amplitude between 1872 and 1883 and this is amplified in the proxy data used before 1872. This is therefore also true of the IDV index which makes direct use of the u index values.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 2: A new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field

We present a new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, B) for 1846–2012 with a full analysis of errors, based on the homogeneously constructed IDV(1d)composite of geomagnetic activity presented in Part 1 (Lockwood et al., 2013a). Analysis of the dependence of the commonly used geomagnetic indices on solar wind parameters is presented which helps explain why annual means of interdiurnal range data, such as the new composite, depend only on the IMF with only a very weak influence of the solar wind flow speed. The best results are obtained using a polynomial (rather than a linear) fit of the form B = χ · (IDV(1d) − β)α with best-fit coefficients χ = 3.469, β = 1.393 nT, and α = 0.420. The results are contrasted with the reconstruction of the IMF since 1835 by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010).

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 3: improved representation of solar cycle 11

Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory’s H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak(H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10 %. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20 %. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field).We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any “floor” value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.

Quantitative ventilation assessments of idealized urban canopy layers with various urban layouts and the same building packing density

This paper investigates urban canopy layers (UCL) ventilation under neutral atmospheric condition with the same building area density (λp=0.25) and frontal area density (λf=0.25) but various urban sizes, building height variations, overall urban forms and wind directions. Turbulent airflows are first predicted by CFD simulations with standard k-ε model evaluated by wind tunnel data. Then air change rates per hour (ACH) and canopy purging flow rate (PFR) are numerically analyzed to quantify the rate of air exchange and the net ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. With a parallel approaching wind (θ=0o), the velocity ratio first decreases in the adjustment region, followed by the fully-developed region where the flow reaches a balance. Although the flow quantities macroscopically keep constant, however ACH decreases and overall UCL ventilation becomes worse if urban size rises from 390m to 5km. Theoretically if urban size is infinite, ACH may reach a minimum value depending on local roof ventilation, and it rises from 1.7 to 7.5 if the standard deviation of building height variations increases (0% to 83.3%). Overall UCL ventilation capacity (PFR) with a square overall urban form (Lx=Ly=390m) is better as θ=0o than oblique winds (θ=15o, 30o, 45o), and it exceeds that of a staggered urban form under all wind directions (θ=0o to 45o), but is less than that of a rectangular urban form (Lx=570m, Ly=270m) under most wind directions (θ=30o to 90o). Further investigations are still required to quantify the net ventilation efficiency induced by mean flows and turbulence.

Children and adolescents referred for treatment of anxiety disorders: differences in clinical characteristics

Background: Reports of the clinical characteristics of children and adolescents with anxiety disorders are typically based on community populations or from clinical samples with exclusion criterion applied. Little is known about the clinical characteristics of children and adolescents routinely referred for treatment for anxiety disorders. Furthermore, children and adolescents are typically treated as one homogeneous group although they may differ in ways that are clinically meaningful. Methods: A consecutive series of children (n = 100, aged 6-12 years) and adolescents (n = 100, aged 13-18 years), referred to a routine clinical service, were assessed for anxiety and comorbid disorders, school refusal and parental symptoms of psychopathology. Results: Children were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with separation anxiety disorder than adolescents. Adolescents with a primary anxiety disorder had significantly higher self and clinician rated anxiety symptoms and had more frequent primary diagnoses of social anxiety disorder, diagnoses and symptoms of mood disorders, and irregular school attendance. Limitations: Childhood and adolescence were considered categorically as distinct, developmental periods; in reality changes would be unlikely to occur in such a discrete manner. Conclusions: The finding that children and adolescents with anxiety disorders have distinct clinical characteristics has clear implications for treatment. Simply adapting treatments designed for children to make the materials more ‘adolescent-friendly’ is unlikely to sufficiently meet the needs of adolescents.

The effect of model configuration on modelled hillslope–riparian interactions

The transfer of hillslope water to and through the riparian zone forms a research area of importance in hydrological investigations. Numerical modelling schemes offer a way to visualise and quantify first-order controls on catchment runoff response and mixing. We use a two-dimensional Finite Element model to assess the link between model setup decisions (e.g. zero-flux boundary definitions, soil algorithm choice) and the consequential hydrological process behaviour. A detailed understanding of the consequences of model configuration is required in order to produce reliable estimates of state variables. We demonstrate that model configuration decisions can determine effectively the presence or absence of particular hillslope flow processes and, the magnitude and direction of flux at the hillslope–riparian interface. If these consequences are not fully explored for any given scheme and application, the resulting process inference may well be misleading.

The impact of liquidity on senior credit index spreads during the subprime crisis

This paper examines the effects of liquidity during the 2007–09 crisis, focussing on the Senior Tranche of the CDX.NA.IG Index and on Moody's AAA Corporate Bond Index. It aims to understand whether the sharp increase in the credit spreads of these AAA-rated credit indices can be explained by worse credit fundamentals alone or whether it also reflects a lack of depth in the relevant markets, the scarcity of risk-capital, and the liquidity preference exhibited by investors. Using cointegration analysis and error correction models, the paper shows that during the crisis lower market and funding liquidity are important drivers of the increase in the credit spread of the AAA-rated structured product, whilst they are less significant in explaining credit spread changes for a portfolio of unstructured credit instruments. Looking at the experience of the subprime crisis, the study shows that when the conditions under which securitisation can work properly (liquidity, transparency and tradability) suddenly disappear, investors are left highly exposed to systemic risk.

Biorefinery development through utilization of biodiesel industry by-products as sole fermentation feedstock for 1,3-propanediol production

Rapeseed meal (RSM) hydrolysate was evaluated as substitute for commercial nutrient supplements in 1,3-propanediol (PDO) fermentation using the strain Clostridium butyricum VPI 1718. RSM was enzymatically converted into a generic fermentation feedstock, enriched in amino acids, peptides and various micro-nutrients, using crude enzyme consortia produced via solid state fermentation by a fungal strain of Aspergillus oryzae. Initial free amino nitrogen concentration influenced PDO production in batch cultures. RSM hydrolysates were compared with commercial nutrient supplements regarding PDO production in fed-batch cultures carried out in a bench-scale bioreactor. The utilization of RSM hydrolysates in repeated batch cultivation resulted in a PDO concentration of 65.5 g/L with an overall productivity of 1.15 g/L/h that was almost 2 times higher than the productivity achieved when yeast extract was used as nutrient supplement.