Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

GODIVA2: interactive visualization of environmental data on the Web

GODIVA2 is a dynamic website that provides visual access to several terabytes of physically distributed, four-dimensional environmental data. It allows users to explore large datasets interactively without the need to install new software or download and understand complex data. Through the use of open international standards, GODIVA2 maintains a high level of interoperability with third-party systems, allowing diverse datasets to be mutually compared. Scientists can use the system to search for features in large datasets and to diagnose the output from numerical simulations and data processing algorithms. Data providers around Europe have adopted GODIVA2 as an INSPIRE-compliant dynamic quick-view system for providing visual access to their data.

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics.

Factors affecting distribution and mobility of trace elements (Cu, Pb, Zn) in a perennial grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Champagne region of France

Soil and Vitis vinifera L (coarse and fine roots, leaves, berries) concentration and geochemical partitioning of Cu, Pb and Zn were determined in a contaminated calcareous Champagne plot to assess their mobility and transfer. Accumulation ratios in roots remained low (0.1-0.4 for Cu and Zn, <0.05 for Pb). Differences between elements resulted from vegetation uptake strategy and soil partitioning. Copper, significantly associated with the oxidisable fraction (27.8%), and Zn with the acid soluble fraction (33.3%), could be mobilised by rhizosphere acidification and oxidisation, unlike Pb, essentially contained in the reducible fraction (72.4%). Roots should not be considered as a whole since the more reactive fine roots showed higher accumulation ratios than coarse ones. More sensitive response of fine roots, lack of correlation between chemical extraction results and vegetation concentrations, and very limited translocation to aerial parts showed that fine root concentrations should be used when assessing bioavailability. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disabled access and heritage attractions

In a UK context, the importance of heritage tourism, the potential of the disabled market, and government policies concerning tourism, social inclusion, and the historic environment provide the setting within which access improvements at heritage attractions for disabled visitors are studied. At issue is how disabled access and conservation can be reconciled. The stakeholders range from the central actors, the disabled tourists and the heritage tourism service providers, through to the gatekeeper and lobby players in the conservation, disability, and tourism contexts. The critical power structures are identified. Changes to the historic environment are managed through the conservation planning system in which disability interests are not formally represented. Recent disability discrimination legislation has not altered this balance of power, and is a source of uncertainty over the access standards that should apply to heritage attractions. An evaluation of progress in implementing access improvements at heritage attractions reveals the limited extent of improvements undertaken to date. Consideration is given not only to physical access but also to alternative methods (intellectual access) of providing the heritage tourism service. In conclusion, the situation is examined from three perspectives. From the disabled tourists' perspective, choice of heritage attractions to visit remains restricted compared to that of nondisabled tourists. The lack of consultation with disabled stakeholders in the access improvements decision-making process is discussed, including the acceptability of alternative methods of service delivery to disabled tourists. The uncertainties facing heritage tourism service providers arising from the disability discrimination legislation are considered but, to ensure a more balanced recognition of disability interests, both conservation planning and disability discrimination legislation need to be amended, adjusting the roles of the legislative gatekeepers.

Correlating Bayesian date estimates with climatic events and domestication using a bovine case study

The tribe Bovini contains a number of commercially and culturally important species, such as cattle. Understanding their evolutionary time scale is important for distinguishing between post-glacial and domestication-associated population expansions, but estimates of bovine divergence times have been hindered by a lack of reliable calibration points. We present a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of 481 mitochondrial D-loop sequences, including 228 radiocarbon-dated ancient DNA sequences, using a multi-demographic coalescent model. By employing the radiocarbon dates as internal calibrations, we co-estimate the bovine phylogeny and divergence times in a relaxed-clock framework. The analysis yields evidence for significant population expansions in both taurine and zebu cattle, European aurochs and yak clades. The divergence age estimates support domestication-associated expansion times (less than 12 kyr) for the major haplogroups of cattle. We compare the molecular and palaeontological estimates for the Bison-Bos divergence.

Did farming arise from a misapplication of social intelligence?

The origins of farming is the defining event of human history-the one turning point that has resulted in modern humans having a quite different type of lifestyle and cognition to all other animals and past types of humans. With the economic basis provided by farming, human individuals and societies have developed types of material culture that greatly augment powers of memory and computation, extending the human mental capacity far beyond that which the brain alone can provide. Archaeologists have long debated and discussed why people began living in settled communities and became dependent on cultivated plants and animals, which soon evolved into domesticated forms. One of the most intriguing explanations was proposed more than 20 years ago not by an archaeologist but by a psychologist: Nicholas Humphrey suggested that farming arose from the 'misapplication of social intelligence'. I explore this idea in relation to recent discoveries and archaeological interpretations in the Near East, arguing that social intelligence has indeed played a key role in the origin of farming and hence the emergence of the modern world.

Evidence for an apartheid-like social structure in early Anglo-Saxon England

The role of migration in the Anglo-Saxon transition in England remains controversial. Archaeological and historical evidence is inconclusive, but current estimates of the contribution of migrants to the English population range from less than 10 000 to as many as 200 000. In contrast, recent studies based on Y-chromosome variation posit a considerably higher contribution to the modern English gene pool (50-100%). Historical evidence suggests that following the Anglo-Saxon transition, people of indigenous ethnicity were at an economic and legal disadvantage compared to those having Anglo-Saxon ethnicity. It is likely that such a disadvantage would lead to differential reproductive success. We examine the effect of differential reproductive success, coupled with limited intermarriage between distinct ethnic groups, on the spread of genetic variants. Computer simulations indicate that a social structure limiting intermarriage between indigenous Britons and an initially small Anglo-Saxon immigrant population provide a plausible explanation of the high degree of Continental male-line ancestry in England.

Climate predictability in the second year

In this paper, the predictability of climate arising from ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies is investigated in the HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean model. An ensemble of simulations of the twentieth century are used to provide initial conditions for a case study. The case study consists of two ensembles started from initial conditions with large differences in regional OHC in the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and parts of the West Pacific. Surface temperatures and precipitation are on average not predictable beyond seasonal time scales, but for certain initial conditions there may be longer predictability. It is shown that, for the case study examined here, some aspects of tropical precipitation, European surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea-level pressure are potentially predictable 2 years ahead. Predictability also exists in the other case studies, but the climate variables and regions, which are potentially predictable, differ. This work was done as part of the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) eScience project.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Impulsiveness as a timing disturbance: neurocognitive abnormalities in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder during temporal processes and normalization with methylphenidate.

We argue that impulsiveness is characterized by compromised timing functions such as premature motor timing, decreased tolerance to delays, poor temporal foresight and steeper temporal discounting. A model illustration for the association between impulsiveness and timing deficits is the impulsiveness disorder of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Children with ADHD have deficits in timing processes of several temporal domains and the neural substrates of these compromised timing functions are strikingly similar to the neuropathology of ADHD. We review our published and present novel functional magnetic resonance imaging data to demonstrate that ADHD children show dysfunctions in key timing regions of prefrontal, cingulate, striatal and cerebellar location during temporal processes of several time domains including time discrimination of milliseconds, motor timing to seconds and temporal discounting of longer time intervals. Given that impulsiveness, timing abnormalities and more specifically ADHD have been related to dopamine dysregulation, we tested for and demonstrated a normalization effect of all brain dysfunctions in ADHD children during time discrimination with the dopamine agonist and treatment of choice, methylphenidate. This review together with the new empirical findings demonstrates that neurocognitive dysfunctions in temporal processes are crucial to the impulsiveness disorder of ADHD and provides first evidence for normalization with a dopamine reuptake inhibitor.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

A high-wavenumber boundary-element method for an acoustic scattering problem

In this paper we show stability and convergence for a novel Galerkin boundary element method approach to the impedance boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a half-plane with piecewise constant boundary data. This problem models, for example, outdoor sound propagation over inhomogeneous flat terrain. To achieve a good approximation with a relatively low number of degrees of freedom we employ a graded mesh with smaller elements adjacent to discontinuities in impedance, and a special set of basis functions for the Galerkin method so that, on each element, the approximation space consists of polynomials (of degree $\nu$) multiplied by traces of plane waves on the boundary. In the case where the impedance is constant outside an interval $[a,b]$, which only requires the discretization of $[a,b]$, we show theoretically and experimentally that the $L_2$ error in computing the acoustic field on $[a,b]$ is ${\cal O}(\log^{\nu+3/2}|k(b-a)| M^{-(\nu+1)})$, where $M$ is the number of degrees of freedom and $k$ is the wavenumber. This indicates that the proposed method is especially commendable for large intervals or a high wavenumber. In a final section we sketch how the same methodology extends to more general scattering problems.