Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events

The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to 1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid growth of errors on small scales in conjunction with preexisting errors on larger scales may limit the usefulness of such models. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether improved model resolution alone is able to produce more skillful precipitation forecasts on useful scales, and how the skill varies with spatial scale. A verification method will be described in which skill is determined from a comparison of rainfall forecasts with radar using fractional coverage over different sized areas. The Met Office Unified Model was run with grid spacings of 12, 4, and 1 km for 10 days in which convection occurred during the summers of 2003 and 2004. All forecasts were run from 12-km initial states for a clean comparison. The results show that the 1-km model was the most skillful over all but the smallest scales (approximately <10–15 km). A measure of acceptable skill was defined; this was attained by the 1-km model at scales around 40–70 km, some 10–20 km less than that of the 12-km model. The biggest improvement occurred for heavier, more localized rain, despite it being more difficult to predict. The 4-km model did not improve much on the 12-km model because of the difficulties of representing convection at that resolution, which was accentuated by the spinup from 12-km fields.

Making sense of survival: refining the treatment of state preferences in neorealist theory

The assumption that ‘states' primary goal is survival’ lies at the heart of the neorealist paradigm. A careful examination of the assumption, however, reveals that neorealists draw upon a number of distinct interpretations of the ‘survival assumption’ that are then treated as if they are the same, pointing towards conceptual problems that surround the treatment of state preferences. This article offers a specification that focuses on two questions that highlight the role and function of the survival assumption in the neorealist logic: (i) what do states have to lose if they fail to adopt self-help strategies?; and (ii) how does concern for relevant losses motivate state behaviour and affect international outcomes? Answering these questions through the exploration of governing elites' sensitivity towards regime stability and territorial integrity of the state, in turn, addresses the aforementioned conceptual problems. This specification has further implications for the debates among defensive and offensive realists, potential extensions of the neorealist logic beyond the Westphalian states, and the relationship between neorealist theory and policy analysis.

General circulation model estimates of aerosol transport and radiative forcing during the Indian Ocean Experiment

Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.

The inclusion of forage mixtures in the diet of growing dairy heifers: impacts on digestion, energy utilisation, and methane emissions

Intensive farming focusing on monoculture grass species to maximise forage production has led to a reduction in the extent and diversity of species-rich grasslands. However, plant communities with higher species number (richness) are a potential strategy for more sustainable production and mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research has indicated the need to understand opportunities that forage mixtures can offer sustainable ruminant production systems. The objective of the two experiments reported here were to evaluate multiple species forage mixtures in comparison to ryegrass-dominant pasture, when conserved or grazed, on digestion, energy utilisation, N excretion, and methane emissions by growing 10–15 month old heifers. Experiment 1 was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with five week periods. Four forage treatments of: (1) ryegrass (control); permanent pasture with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne); (2) clover; a ryegrass:red clover (Trifolium pratense) mixture; (3) trefoil; a ryegrass:birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus) mixture; and (4) flowers; a ryegrass:wild flower mixture of predominately sorrel (Rumex acetosa), ox-eye daisy (Leucanthemum vulgare), yarrow (Achillea millefolium), knapweed (Centaurea nigra) and ribwort plantain (Plantago lanceolata), were fed as haylages to four dairy heifers. Measurements included digestibility, N excretion, and energy utilisation (including methane emissions measured in respiration chambers). Experiment 2 used 12 different dairy heifers grazing three of the same forage treatments used to make haylage in experiment 1 (ryegrass, clover and flowers) and methane emissions were estimated using the sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique. Distribution of ryegrass to other species (dry matter (DM) basis) was approximately 70:30 (clover), 80:20 (trefoil), and 40:60 (flowers) for experiment 1. During the first and second grazing rotations (respectively) in experiment 2, perennial ryegrass accounted for 95 and 98% of DM in ryegrass, and 84 and 52% of DM in clover, with red clover accounting for almost all of the remainder. In the flowers mixture, perennial ryegrass was 52% of the DM in the first grazing rotation and only 30% in the second, with a variety of other flower species occupying the remainder. Across both experiments, compared to the forage mixtures (clover, trefoil and flowers), ryegrass had a higher crude protein (CP) content (P < 0.001, 187 vs. 115 g kg −1 DM) and DM intake (P < 0.05, 9.0 vs. 8.1 kg day −1). Heifers in experiment 1 fed ryegrass, compared to the forage mixtures, had greater total tract digestibility (g kg −1) of DM (DMD; P < 0.008, 713 vs. 641) and CP (CPD, P < 0.001, 699 vs. 475), and used more intake energy (%) for body tissue deposition (P < 0.05, 2.6 vs. −4.9). For both experiments, heifers fed flowers differed the most compared to the ryegrass control for a number of measurements. Compared to ryegrass, flowers had 40% lower CP content (P < 0.001, 113 vs. 187 g kg −1), 18% lower DMD (P < 0.01, 585 vs. 713 g kg −1), 42% lower CPD (P < 0.001, 407 vs. 699 g kg −1), and 10% lower methane yield (P < 0.05, 22.6 vs. 25.1 g kg −1 DM intake). This study has shown inclusion of flowers in forage mixtures resulted in a lower CP concentration, digestibility and intake. These differences were due in part to sward management and maturity at harvest. Further research is needed to determine how best to exploit the potential environmental benefits of forage mixtures in sustainable ruminant production systems.

Neural stem cells adopt tumorigenic properties by constitutively activated NF-kappaB and subsequent VEGF up-regulation

One of the challenges in stem cell research is to avoid transformation during cultivation. We studied high passage subventricular zone derived neural stem cells (NSCs) cultures of adult rats in the absence of growth factors epidermal growth factor (EGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF). We termed this culture exogenous growth factor independent neural stem cells (GiNSCs). GiNSCs expressed stemness markers, displayed a high constitutive NF-kappaB activity and an increased, aberrant, polyploid DNA content. GiNSCs showed a tumorigenic phenotype and formed colonies in a soft agar assay. Microarray analysis showed the up-regulation of the NF-kappaB target gene vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). In contrast, proneuronal genes were down-regulated. Under neuronal differentiation conditions GiNSCs adopted a glioma-like phenotype, with nuclear p53, preserving high amounts of Nestin positive cells and prolonged proliferation. Neutralization of VEGF strongly inhibited proliferation and induced differentiation. In a gain of function approach, the transfection of NSCs with constitutively active upstream kinase IKK-2 led to constitutively activated NF-kappaB, proliferation in absence of growth factors and augmented VEGF secretion. In a rescue experiment a reduction of NF-kappaB activity by overexpression of IkappaB-AA1 was able to shift the morphology toward an elongated cell form, increased cell death, and decreased proliferation. Thus GiNSCs may provide a potent tool in cancer research, as their exogenous cytokine independent proliferation and their constitutively high NF-kappaB expression presumes cancerous properties observed in gliomas. In addition, this study might add a novel mechanism for detecting oncogenic transformation in therapeutic stem cell cultures.

The climate of Europe 6000 years ago

Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.

Ras: the stress and the strain

The last 10–15 years have seen an expansion in the understanding of the intracellular signalling pathways activated in cardiac myocytes in response to hypertrophic or lethal stimuli. The mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) were identified as potential key mediators of cardiac myocyte responses in the early to mid-1990's, with the extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK1/2) being potently activated by heterotrimeric Gq protein-coupled receptor (GqPCR) agonists, and the c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) and p38-MAPKs being potently activated by cell stresses.

Impact of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water layer on Siberian shelf hydrography

This paper examines the role of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water (AW) in modifying the Laptev Sea shelf bottom hydrography on the basis of historical records from 1932 to 2008, field observations carried out in April–May 2008, and 2002–2009 cross‐slope measurements. A climatology of bottom hydrography demonstrates warming that extends offshore from the 30–50 m depth contour. Bottom layer temperature‐time series constructed from historical records links the Laptev Sea outer shelf to the AW boundary current transporting warm and saline water from the North Atlantic. The AW warming of the mid‐1990s and the mid‐2000s is consistent with outer shelf bottom temperature variability. For April–May 2008 we observed on‐shelf near‐bottom warm and saline water intrusions up to the 20 m isobath. These intrusions are typically about 0.2°C warmer and 1–1.5 practical salinity units saltier than ambient water. The 2002–2009 cross‐slope observations are suggestive for the continental slope upward heat flux from the AW to the overlying low‐halocline water (LHW). The lateral on‐shelf wind‐driven transport of the LHW then results in the bottom layer thermohaline anomalies recorded over the Laptev Sea shelf. We also found that polynya‐induced vertical mixing may act as a drainage of the bottom layer, permitting a relatively small portion of the AW heat to be directly released to the atmosphere. Finally, we see no significant warming (up until now) over the Laptev Sea shelf deeper than 10–15 m in the historical record. Future climate change, however, may bring more intrusions of Atlantic‐modified waters with potentially warmer temperature onto the shelf, which could have a critical impact on the stability of offshore submarine permafrost.