Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

The diabatic contour advective semi-Lagrangian model

This article describes a novel algorithmic development extending the contour advective semi-Lagrangian model to include nonconservative effects. The Lagrangian contour representation of finescale tracer fields, such as potential vorticity, allows for conservative, nondiffusive treatment of sharp gradients allowing very high numerical Reynolds numbers. It has been widely employed in accurate geostrophic turbulence and tracer advection simulations. In the present, diabatic version of the model the constraint of conservative dynamics is overcome by including a parallel Eulerian field that absorbs the nonconservative ( diabatic) tendencies. The diabatic buildup in this Eulerian field is limited through regular, controlled transfers of this field to the contour representation. This transfer is done with a fast newly developed contouring algorithm. This model has been implemented for several idealized geometries. In this paper a single-layer doubly periodic geometry is used to demonstrate the validity of the model. The present model converges faster than the analogous semi-Lagrangian models at increased resolutions. At the same nominal spatial resolution the new model is 40 times faster than the analogous semi-Lagrangian model. Results of an orographically forced idealized storm track show nontrivial dependency of storm-track statistics on resolution and on the numerical model employed. If this result is more generally applicable, this may have important consequences for future high-resolution climate modeling.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. I: Mathematical basis

It is shown that Bretherton's view of baroclinic instability as the interaction of two counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be extended to a general zonal flow and to a general dynamical system based on material conservation of potential vorticity (PV). The two CRWs have zero tilt with both altitude and latitude and are constructed from a pair of growing and decaying normal modes. One CRW has generally large amplitude in regions of positive meridional PV gradient and propagates westwards relative to the flow in such regions. Conversely, the other CRW has large amplitude in regions of negative PV gradient and propagates eastward relative to the zonal flow there. Two methods of construction are described. In the first, more heuristic, method a ‘home-base’ is chosen for each CRW and the other CRW is defined to have zero PV there. Consideration of the PV equation at the two home-bases gives ‘CRW equations’ quantifying the evolution of the amplitudes and phases of both CRWs. They involve only three coefficients describing the mutual interaction of the waves and their self-propagation speeds. These coefficients relate to PV anomalies formed by meridional fluid displacements and the wind induced by these anomalies at the home-bases. In the second method, the CRWs are defined by orthogonality constraints with respect to wave activity and energy growth, avoiding the subjective choice of home-bases. Using these constraints, the same form of CRW equations are obtained from global integrals of the PV equation, but the three coefficients are global integrals that are not so readily described by ‘PV-thinking’ arguments. Each CRW could not continue to exist alone, but together they can describe the time development of any flow whose initial conditions can be described by the pair of growing and decaying normal modes, including the possibility of a super-modal growth rate for a short period. A phase-locking configuration (and normal-mode growth) is possible only if the PV gradient takes opposite signs and the mean zonal wind and the PV gradient are positively correlated in the two distinct regions where the wave activity of each CRW is concentrated. These are easily interpreted local versions of the integral conditions for instability given by Charney and Stern and by Fjørtoft.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. II: Application to the Charney model

The constant-density Charney model describes the simplest unstable basic state with a planetary-vorticity gradient, which is uniform and positive, and baroclinicity that is manifest as a negative contribution to the potential-vorticity (PV) gradient at the ground and positive vertical wind shear. Together, these ingredients satisfy the necessary conditions for baroclinic instability. In Part I it was shown how baroclinic growth on a general zonal basic state can be viewed as the interaction of pairs of ‘counter-propagating Rossby waves’ (CRWs) that can be constructed from a growing normal mode and its decaying complex conjugate. In this paper the normal-mode solutions for the Charney model are studied from the CRW perspective. Clear parallels can be drawn between the most unstable modes of the Charney model and the Eady model, in which the CRWs can be derived independently of the normal modes. However, the dispersion curves for the two models are very different; the Eady model has a short-wave cut-off, while the Charney model is unstable at short wavelengths. Beyond its maximum growth rate the Charney model has a neutral point at finite wavelength (r=1). Thereafter follows a succession of unstable branches, each with weaker growth than the last, separated by neutral points at integer r—the so-called ‘Green branches’. A separate branch of westward-propagating neutral modes also originates from each neutral point. By approximating the lower CRW as a Rossby edge wave and the upper CRW structure as a single PV peak with a spread proportional to the Rossby scale height, the main features of the ‘Charney branch’ (0

The counterpropagating Rossby wave perspective on Kelvin Helmholtz instability as a limiting case of a Rayleigh shear layer with zero width

The Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) problem, with zero stratification, is examined as a limiting case of the Rayleigh model of a single shear layer whose width tends to zero. The transition of the Rayleigh modal dispersion relation to the KH one, as well as the disappearance of the supermodal transient growth in the KH limit, are both rationalized from the counterpropagating Rossby wave perspective.

Establishing Lagrangian connections between observations within air masses crossing the Atlantic during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation experiment

The ITCT-Lagrangian-2K4 (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) experiment was conceived with an aim to quantify the effects of photochemistry and mixing on the transformation of air masses in the free troposphere away from emissions. To this end, attempts were made to intercept and sample air masses several times during their journey across the North Atlantic using four aircraft based in New Hampshire (USA), Faial (Azores) and Creil (France). This article begins by describing forecasts from two Lagrangian models that were used to direct the aircraft into target air masses. A novel technique then identifies Lagrangian matches between flight segments. Two independent searches are conducted: for Lagrangian model matches and for pairs of whole air samples with matching hydrocarbon fingerprints. The information is filtered further by searching for matching hydrocarbon samples that are linked by matching trajectories. The quality of these "coincident matches'' is assessed using temperature, humidity and tracer observations. The technique pulls out five clear Lagrangian cases covering a variety of situations and these are examined in detail. The matching trajectories and hydrocarbon fingerprints are shown, and the downwind minus upwind differences in tracers are discussed.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part III: Primitive-equation disturbances on the sphere

Baroclinic instability of perturbations described by the linearized primitive quations, growing on steady zonal jets on the sphere, can be understood in terms of the interaction of pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs). The CRWs can be viewed as the basic components of the dynamical system where the Hamiltonian is the pseudoenergy and each CRW has a zonal coordinate and pseudomomentum. The theory holds for adiabatic frictionless flow to the extent that truncated forms of pseudomomentum and pseudoenergy are globally conserved. These forms focus attention on Rossby wave activity. Normal mode (NM) dispersion relations for realistic jets are explained in terms of the two CRWs associated with each unstable NM pair. Although derived from the NMs, CRWs have the conceptual advantage that their structure is zonally untilted, and can be anticipated given only the basic state. Moreover, their zonal propagation, phase-locking and mutual interaction can all be understood by ‘PV-thinking’ applied at only two ‘home-bases’—potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at one home-base induce circulation anomalies, both locally and at the other home-base, which in turn can advect the PV gradient and modify PV anomalies there. At short wavelengths the upper CRW is focused in the mid-troposphere just above the steering level of the NM, but at longer wavelengths the upper CRW has a second wave-activity maximum at the tropopause. In the absence of meridional shear, CRW behaviour is very similar to that of Charney modes, while shear results in a meridional slant with height of the air-parcel displacement-structures of CRWs in sympathy with basic-state zonal angular-velocity surfaces. A consequence of this slant is that baroclinically growing eddies (on jets broader than the Rossby radius) must tilt downshear in the horizontal, giving rise to up-gradient momentum fluxes that tend to accelerate the barotropic component of the jet.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part IV: Nonlinear life cycles

Pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be used to describe baroclinic instability in linearized primitive-equation dynamics, employing simple propagation and interaction mechanisms at only two locations in the meridional plane—the CRW ‘home-bases’. Here, it is shown how some CRW properties are remarkably robust as a growing baroclinic wave develops nonlinearly. For example, the phase difference between upper-level and lower-level waves in potential-vorticity contours, defined initially at the home-bases of the CRWs, remains almost constant throughout baroclinic wave life cycles, despite the occurrence of frontogenesis and Rossby-wave breaking. As the lower wave saturates nonlinearly the whole baroclinic wave changes phase speed from that of the normal mode to that of the self-induced phase speed of the upper CRW. On zonal jets without surface meridional shear, this must always act to slow the baroclinic wave. The direction of wave breaking when a basic state has surface meridional shear can be anticipated because the displacement structures of CRWs tend to be coherent along surfaces of constant basic-state angular velocity, U. This results in up-gradient horizontal momentum fluxes for baroclinically growing disturbances. The momentum flux acts to shift the jet meridionally in the direction of the increasing surface U, so that the upper CRW breaks in the same direction as occurred at low levels

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.